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Crystal (basket)ball CNNSI.com's O'Neill takes his best shot at bracket
Posted: Tuesday March 14, 2000 12:59 AM
Northwestern coach Kevin O'Neill will provide expert analysis for CNNSI.com throughout the men's NCAA basketball tournament and Final Four in Indianapolis. Our Johnny Phelps talked with O'Neill to get his input on who got in, who didn't, who his favorites are and much more. Johnny Phelps: Coach, now that the teams have been announced and we can see the matchups, what do you see as the toughest region? Kevin O'Neill: Well, to me it looks like the Midwest. You got the two hottest teams there in Michigan State and Iowa State. Obviously, it's not a round-robin so each one of them has got to win just four to get there [to the Final Four]. At the same time, with those two teams in here and the depth of that region, I think that's the hardest. I think the weakest bracket is the West and it kind of depends on what happens with Loren Woods. Can he play? Can't he play? What kind of effect can he have for Arizona? But I think the Midwest is going to be a real tough bracket. Phelps: Cincinnati coach Bob Huggins was pretty upset with his team listed as the No. 2 seed in the South. And he said, "We're used to not getting any respect." Did Cincinnati get an unfair call here? O'Neill: Well, I talked to Bob this morning and anybody that knows Bob, if he won 55 straight he wouldn't think he was getting any respect. I think the Bearcats deserved a No. 1 seed. They're No. 1 in RPI, No. 2 in Sagarin, they were No. 1 most of the year. They beat Saint Louis by 43 points the week before. It probably could have been more. They ended up losing to Saint Louis because that was a "shock" loss -- their players were in shock. Had Kenyon [Martin] gotten hurt two days before in practice, before the tournament starts, I think they still win the [C-USA] tournament and they are still a No. 1 seed. And I think what you do during the year should determine where you are at [in the tournament]. Phelps: The NCAA committee seemed to obviously penalize Cincinnati for losing Kenyon Martin. But Arizona, as you pointed out, is playing without Loren Woods. The Wildcats not only got a No. 1 seed, but they got to stay in the West. What is the difference here? O'Neill: Bob doesn't care where they send him. He'd play on Mars for a No. 1 seed. I guess the bottom line here is that Loren Woods still has a chance to play and Kenyon Martin doesn't. I can see where the committee was coming from there. I don't agree with Cincinnati not being the No. 1 seed. But I think Arizona should also be a No. 1 seed, and if Loren Woods plays, then the Wildcats are one. Phelps: In addition, Kentucky is going to be without Desmond Allison. How do you think his suspension is going to affect the Wildcats? O'Neill: Although he doesn't have huge, huge numbers, Desmond Allison is really the heart and soul of their team, in my opinion. He's a jack-of-all-trades, a master of none, plays great defense, second-best 3-point shooting on a team that needs 3-point shooting percentage-wise. I think they are really going to miss him. I think that's an integral part of their team that they'll miss an awful lot in their first-round matchup. Phelps: What about some teams that got in that surprised you, Kevin? O'Neill: Two. I was surprised that North Carolina got in. I thought they got the "history helper" bid. They'd been 25 straight times. History said they should go again, but I didn't think they deserved to be in. And UNLV, with a weak non-conference schedule and the fact that they lost seven games by double-digits or more and two by 20 or more points, I didn't think they would get in. I really didn't.
Phelps: Who do you think might have just missed on the final cut? O'Neill: The two I would have put in their place -- and thank goodness I'm not doing the seedings because I wouldn't know what I was doing -- were Virginia and Vanderbilt. I thought both of those teams deserved to be in it. I thought they were in a position where, as teams going down the stretch, they did enough to be in. They beat enough good people. I thought those guys should have been in, in place of Las Vegas and North Carolina. Phelps: Kevin, we hear a lot of coaches talk each year. They have the philosophy that you build your momentum once you get into the tournament. But it sure doesn't hurt to be playing at your best right now. Who are the hot teams going in? O'Neill: I've got five teams that I think are really hot. I think they are Michigan State, Iowa State, Fresno State, Illinois and Temple. I think all five of those teams are playing great basketball right now. In particular, I think Fresno, with Courtney Alexander, is very dangerous, I think Illinois, with their young players, is gaining momentum and can do some damage. There are a lot of good teams and Utah State is playing well. But those are the five that I thought were the hottest going in. Phelps: What about some sleepers and some of those first- round matchups that are "ambush" games for the higher seeds because we always get some of them? O'Neill : Sleeper-wise, I think in the East, it's Florida, which had huge wins over Auburn, Kentucky and LSU. "They have a heart of a champion," as [Houston Rockets coach] Rudy Tomjanovich would say. It's hard to beat a champion. I think those guys at a No. 5 seed have a chance to really do some great things. In the opening round as a No. 5 vs. No. 12 seed, I like the [St. Bonaventure] Bonnies over Kentucky in the Midwest. Also in the Midwest, the No. 4 vs. No. 13, Samford against Syracuse. Syracuse will have their hands full. In the South No. 4 vs. No. 13, Tennessee and UL-Lafayette, I think that will be a tough team for Tennessee. In the Midwest No. 6 vs. No. 11, Ball State and UCLA. In the second round in the South, Tulsa with its press might bother Cincinnati's young guards. They [Cincinnati] have a lot of young guys playing in the backcourt. In the East, Oregon is going to give Temple some problems because of their guards. And out in the West bracket, everybody would love to see Fresno State and Arizona play because they all know [Arizona head coach] Lute Olson and [Fresno State head coach] Jerry Tarkanian hate each other. That will be a great matchup. Phelps: How about if we look to the Final Four? Go ahead and look in your crystal ball and give us your Final Four. O'Neill : I've got St. John's in the West, Michigan State in the Midwest, Temple in the East and Stanford in the South. Two teams that I think could jump up and get all the way there are Maryland and Ohio State. I think both of them, if given the opportunity, can play Final Four basketball. Phelps : Coach, thanks for being with us and we look forward to your insight and analysis all throughout the tournament. O'Neill : Thank you.
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