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Familiar four Preseason predictions end in postseason perfection
Updated: Monday March 26, 2001 12:57 AM
By Stewart Mandel, CNNSI.com Arizona. Michigan State. Duke. Maryland. Who saw it coming? Apparently the nation's sportswriters. And for several months now. Look back at the preseason AP Top 25 and sure enough, there they are: No. 1 Arizona, No. 2 Duke, No. 3 Michigan State and No. 5 Maryland. The No. 4 pick, Stanford, came pretty close. The so-called "experts" essentially nailed the Final Four before the season this time -- what does this mean? Are the nation's college basketball writers truly the geniuses they believe they are? No. Not in a million years. Is parity in college basketball disappearing before our very eyes? No. And thank you for that, Gonzaga and Hampton. What happened in 2001 was a rarity, though. With apologies to Illinois (not off by much) and North Carolina (no point guard), four teams were so clearly more talented than all others, you could pick them out before the season even began. There was Duke with its McDonald's All-America alumni chapter; Arizona with its All-Wooden nominated starting five; Michigan State, the champs 'til proven otherwise; and Maryland, where even the managers are NBA prospects. Sure, there would be suspense along the way. That's what a regular season is for. Arizona lost four of seven -- not to mention a loved one. Maryland sunk so low at one point as to assume the word "bubble" next to it. Duke inexplicably lost on its home floor to its two closest ACC competitors. The Spartans weren't the top seed in their own conference tournament. But like it or not, we allow even our best college basketball teams occasional bad stretches. So long as one isn't a certain six-game stretch in March.
So now that the rankings have held form for this long, the only remaining question is, will it continue? Will Arizona and Duke end up 1-2 in the postseason as well? Bracket-wise, obviously, it's possible. But if we resurveyed the critics today, surely the Jason Williams Experience would be their band of choice. The Blue Devils were considered the tournament favorite coming in and have done little to change peoples' minds. Williams, a first team All-America during the season, actually has managed to turn it up a notch in the tournament, averaging 28.8 points in four games. Partner-in-crime Shane Battier has four straight 20-point, 10-rebound efforts. They're good. But only a fool would discount Maryland's upset chances Saturday -- considering it would hardly be an upset. The Terps have beaten the Devils once, and lost only by a buzzer-beater one game and a miracle rally the other. And center Lonny Baxter is playing like a man possessed, averaging 25 points and 10 rebounds in the regionals. How do you know this is one of the most competitive Final Fours in recent memory? While the Terps and Devils are getting prime-time billing, and deservedly so, the other side of the bracket features the hottest team in the country and the defending national champs. Arizona isn't always pretty, but that's not what's important. The 'Cats have the longest active win streak (10) of the four, are playing with emotion and a chip on their shoulder following a tumultuous season and may be the best defensive squad of the bunch. Center Loren Woods, who had seven blocks against Illinois, is one of the few big men in the country who could outmuscle Michigan State. Speaking of which, the Spartans actually advanced to the Final Four more easily (72-point combined victory margin) than during last year's national title run (67). And the nation's top team on the boards racked up an even bigger rebounding margin (75) in the four games. Just three games remain in this college basketball season, and it's anyone's guess who will win the national title. Guess that's what happens when the season beforehand goes just as planned. CNNSI.com's Ryan Hunt contributed to this report.
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Lute Olson's Wildcats were the preseason No. 1. AP
