Two-word question: Why Maryland? Two-word answer: Steve Blake. There's nothing more important to have in the NCAA tournament than a tough, experienced point guard. Kansas, on the other hand, has in Aaron Miles a freshman point guard who looked shaky the last couple of weeks of the season. (I know, I know, I'm splitting hairs.) Alabama also has a freshman point guard in Maurice Williams, which is why the Tide will be the first high seed to bow out against a surging Kent State squad. My Final Four sleeper, USC, not only has a smart, tough senior running the point in Brandon Granville, but all three of its main guys (Granville, David Bluthenthal, Sam Clancy) are seniors who played in the Elite Eight last year.

Speaking of splitting hairs, I picked Duke to lose because I sense this team can get rattled more easily than past editions. When the Blue Devils are shooting well, they're literally impossible to beat, but I don't think their B game is as good as it needs to be. Toughness, speed, experienced guards -- Oklahoma has all that, and Cincinnati is not as talented as people think, so I've got the Sooners in the final game.