In the South, my first-round upsets are Penn over Cal (the Quakers are
one of the nation's best three-point shooting teams) and Kent State over
Oklahoma State (the Golden Flashes have tourney experience in Trevor
Huffman and Andrew Mitchell). The biggest shocker in the South will be
USC over Duke in the Sweet 16. The Trojans know all about the Devils,
having lost to them last year, and Henry Bibby is smart enough to try
and let Chris Duhon and Dahntay Jones beat his club. Look for Sam Clancy
to abuse Carlos Boozer, too, as USC punches a ticket to Atlanta.
In the West, my upsets are Missouri over Miami (Kareem Rush and Clarence
Gilbert were great in last year's tourney; the Canes are way overrated)
and Hawaii over Xavier (not an upset at all, really, but the Rainbows'
shooters may turn this into a blowout). I like Gonzaga over Arizona in a
ridiculous second-round matchup (if you've seen Dan Dickau, as the
tournament committee surely hasn't, then you know he's one of the
college game's all-time winners). All that said, Oklahoma is playing as
well as anyone in the country, which is why I like the Sooners in a
battle royal against Cincinnati in the West final.
In the East, my upsets are S Illinois over Texas Tech (thanks to
the Chicago crowd and another Bob Knight-led tournament collapse) and
Michigan State over N.C. State (experience matters in the tournament,
for players and for coaches like Tom Izzo). In Round 2, I like Marquette
to take care of reeling Kentucky, S Illinois over Georgia (the
Bulldogs, a lame No. 3 seed, have been struggling) and Michigan State
over Connecticut (in Marcus Taylor's coming-out party). In the end,
though, Maryland is too talented and tournament-steeled not to reach the
Final Four.
In the Midwest, my upsets are W Kentucky over Stanford (the
Hilltoppers have better balance) and Pepperdine over Wake Forest (trust
me; the Waves are one of the tourney's most athletic teams). In fact, I
have Pepperdine going all the way to the Elite Eight, picking off Oregon
in the second round. (All credit to the Ducks for winning the Pac-10,
but I don't think they're one of the top eight teams in the country.) By
the time they reach the regional final, however, the Waves won't have
enough in the tank to compete with juggernaut Kansas.
I'm going with an all-Big 12 title game in Atlanta: Oklahoma's toughness
will win the day against USC, while Kansas' inside guys are just a hair
better than Maryland's. When the Sooners and Jayhawks meet for the third
time this year, look for Kansas to have learned from its Big 12
tournament loss to OU and meet the Sooners' bruisers head-on.
