What's the best path to a Final Four? Some say a series of stout tests, to get players to summon all they have. But experience tells me the opposite: The easier the path, the less likely a team will stumble. Sometimes that path is bushwhacked clear by upsets. And sometimes it's just a yellow-brick road.

Look at the obstacles facing Kansas in the Midwest: a No. 2 seed, Oregon, that hasn't won an NCAA tournament game since the Cuban Missile Crisis; a suspect third seed in Mississippi State, whose 34-point loss to Cincinnati in December doesn't augur well for how it might challenge the Jayhawks; Nos. 4 and 5, Illinois and Florida, that have tended to the canine all season (apologies to you pooches); and a No. 6, Texas, that has been a postseason flop since Rick Barnes took over.

While I expect the 'Horns to redress that this March and win a couple of games, and I look for Kent State, Penn and Pepperdine all to make a brief racket, my guess is we'll be thinking back to 1988 in the Georgia Dome on April 1, as Kansas and Oklahoma meet for the title.