Feel-good affair

New season's champion will have sentiment on its side

If there’s one conclusion to be drawn from college basketball’s first three national champions of the 21st century, it’s that a team's chances of hoisting the trophy are greatly improved if it has a nice feel-good story to offer.

No Ray Lewis or Barry Bonds is going to be taking home this title.

Jerks, crooks, thugs, scoundrels -- all are still invited to the party. We just don’t let them dance with the pretty girls.

This is, after all, a sport that makes an event out of the annual One Shining Moment montage, that holds a permanent reverence for every Harold Arceneaux or Mouse McFadden that comes along. That’s why the nets have been cut down in recent years by the likes of Maryland’s long-jinxed Gary Williams, Duke stay-in-school poster boy Shane Battier and Michigan State’s rags-to-riches Flinstones.

And why John Calipari loses all his good players, the Fab Five gets Michigan in trouble and Alabama looks much better without Rod Grizzard.

The sweet smell of karma, baby.

Therefore, in forecasting the season about to tip off, one cannot restrict himself to analyzing depth charts and shooting percentages. One must ask himself: Which story do I most want to hear Bonnie Bernstein narrating during the pregame show April 7.

Among the many candidates, there’s Arizona point guard Jason Gardner. The guy had literally turned pro following his sophomore season, and how could he not? When you watch not one, not two, not three but four of your teammates returning to campus with Rolexes and Escalades, it’s hard to be the one guy who stays behind. But rather than going the way of so many other misinformed underclassmen, Gardner heeded scouts’ advice, returned to school and two year’s later he’s arguably the best player on the best team in the country.

CNNSI.com's Top Guards: • ACC: Julius Hodge, N.C. State • Big 12: Kirk Hinrich, Kansas • Big East: Brandin Knight, Pitt • Big Ten: Kirk Penney, Wisconsin • C-USA: Dwyane Wade, Marquette • Pac-10: Jason Gardner, Arizona • SEC: Rashard Wright, Georgia More from CNNSI.com: • Button: Guard play key to title

What about Kansas coach Roy Williams? The other Williams finally got his ring last season. Perhaps it’s Roy’s turn to finally get over the hump, a reward for the tough decision he made three summers ago to spurn mentor Dean Smith and return to Lawrence, largely for the chance to coach current seniors Nick Collison and Kirk Hinrich.

Ironically, before this season, Cincinnati’s Bob Huggins would be one of the last names to show up on any feel-good short lists. But c’mon, any guy who just had a heart attack deserves at least a year’s pass, probably more, especially considering his program’s notoriously shoddy graduation rate is finally starting to climb. On paper, this team isn’t Final Four material, but rest assured, Huggs has done more with less many times before.

Others you may feel compelled to adopt this season: Underappreciated Oklahoma coach Kelvin Sampson, gritty Pittsburgh point guard Brandin Knight, Xavier four-year surprise David West and terminally turmoil-wrenched Kentucky coach Tubby Smith.

On to the predictions …

ACC champ: Duke. Extremely young Blue Devils will struggle early, dominate late.

Big East champ: UConn. Emeka Okafor could be nation’s most talented big man.

Big Ten champ: Michigan State. Strongest program in the conference, by far.

Big 12 champ: Kansas. Though the Sooners will have more than a little say.

Pac-10 champ: Arizona. Sign of the times: Five sophomores constitutes “experienced.”

SEC champ: Georgia. Jarvis Hayes-Ezra Williams-Damien Wilkins quite the threesome.

Player of the Year: Gardner. No one else brings such a scoring/defense/distributing combo.

Coach of the Year: Tom Izzo, Michigan State. Three star underclass defections in two years, and still the Spartans will win 25 games.

Newcomer of the Year: Carmelo Anthony, Syracuse. With nods to Duke’s J.J. Reddick, Oklahoma’s Kevin Bookout and Villanova’s Jason Fraser.

First team All-America: Gardner, Hinrich, Oklahoma’s Hollis Price, Arizona’s Luke Walton and Texas’ T.J. Ford.

Second team: Knight, Okafor, West, Collison and Marquette’s Dwyane Wade.

Third team: Hayes, Alabama’s Erwin Dudley, Louisville’s Reece Gaines, Florida’s Brett Nelson and UCLA's Jason Kapono.

Final Four: Arizona, Kansas, Michigan State, Texas.

Not far behind: Oklahoma, Duke, Kentucky, Florida.

Overrated: Pittsburgh, Marquette, Western Kentucky, Maryland.

Dark horses: Xavier, Louisville, Virginia, Creighton, San Diego State.

National championship: Arizona over Kansas.

Stewart Mandel covers college sports for CNNSI.com.

 

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