Why Carolina will
win
Sports Illustrated writer-reporter Seth Davis checks in
with a preview of Saturday's
game
Posted: Thu February
26,1998
A lot has happened since the Tar Heels easily dispatched
their neighbors in the Dean Dome back on Feb. 5. But how
much has really changed? North Carolina is still confident,
veteran and dunk-happy; Duke is still deep, explosive, but
with a potentially
soft underbelly and a good deal more kinks to work out.
Advantage, Carolina,
right?
Hmmmm. Well, for starters,
Antawn
Jamison might not recognize the Blue Devils this time around.
That's because Duke has unexpectedly regained the services
of freshman forward
Elton
Brand. Brand was the team's leading scorer and rebounder when he
broke his foot in late December, but the thing he does best
is get to the foul line. In fact, it wasn't until just
before the first Carolina game that another Duke player
caught him in free
throw attempts. While it's true that other players, most
notably
Roshown
McLeod and
Chris
Carrawell, were forced to improve in Brand's absence, it's also
possible that his return could throw the team off its
rhythm for a bit. Plus, it's going to take some time for
Brand to get up to speed; witness his three-for-11
performance in Wednesday's thrashing
of Georgia Tech. The bottom line for Duke will be its
perimeter defense, which was extremely subpar the last time
around. If the Dukies don't do a better job of keeping
Ed
Cota out of the lane, then Jamison will kill them
again.
North Carolina has also had some interesting goings-on
since the win over Duke. The Heels almost lost at Georgia
Tech in their next game, winning in overtime thanks to
Shammond
Williams' 42 points. The next game, at Virginia, Williams was yanked
in the first half by
Bill
Guthridge for playing poor perimeter defense—the same lapse that
prompted Guthridge to sit Williams against Wake Forest on
Jan. 31—and Williams stormed off the court in tears. It
wasn't the greatest display of manliness Carolina fans have
seen. The Heels simply
haven't come close to replicating the focus they brought to
the Duke game in their outings since. Then again, is there
any doubt they'll be ready to play
Saturday?
Which is why I think
North Carolina will win
again. The reason is simple: The Tar Heels are the better team.
True, the Blue Devils are at home this time, and it's
Senior Day, and they are still smarting from the spanking
they got in Chapel Hill. But Carolina has won 9 of the
last 10 meetings between
these teams, and that definitely qualifies as a pattern.
What's more, UNC really has the look of a champion this
year, and when the Tar Heels summon all of their mental and
physical resources—as they always do against Duke—they
are very tough to
beat.
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