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Title contenders? Eight is enough

Click here for more on this story

Posted: Friday January 07, 2000 05:12 PM

 

Sports Illustrated staff writer Grant Wahl will answer your questions once a week during the college basketball season. Click here to send him a question.

PALO ALTO, Calif. -- A few years back, my parents forbade me from applying to Stanford because, in the immortal words of my father, "They have earthquakes out there." Given that we lived in Kansas, where tornadoes whizzed through town every other week, I never followed that logic. I'm even more bitter now that I've seen firsthand what a glorious thing a 60° January day really is.

But enough of my nonsense. This week's best question comes from Christopher M. Birth of Baltimore:

With no clear-cut dominant team in college basketball today, like UNLV and Duke when they were 30-0 and so forth in the early '90s, it seems that a number of quality teams are shuffling around in the top 10. Who are your true-to-life six or seven NCAA title contenders?

All right, I'll give you what I'll call my Magic Eight, the group of teams from which I absolutely guarantee the national champion will emerge (in alphabetical order):

  • ARIZONA: Solid everywhere. If Michael Wright reaches full potential, watch out.

  • CINCINNATI: The most intimidating and best defensive team in the country.

  • UCONN: Forget the Notre Dame loss. Huskies were the best in the nation over the past month.

  • DUKE: I've said it from the start -- the Blue Devils are ACC's best.

  • INDIANA: Who'd have thought this? A.J. Guyton is a Wooden sleeper.

  • MICHIGAN STATE: Like Stanford, will be awfully good at full strength in March.

  • STANFORD: If guards can keep it up, young team will continue thriving with Mark Madsen's return.

  • TULSA: I'm not kidding. Great balance, solid tournament history, no fear of anybody.

    So there it is. Note the absence of Auburn (overhyped), Florida (same), Kansas (didn't you used to be Eric Chenowith?), Ohio State (second-round upset) and North Carolina (see question below).

    How could anyone possibly rank Oklahoma State ahead of LSU? Okie State is 12th in the coaches' poll and LSU is 27th. That's kind of hard to understand. A lot of people who vote for these awards and polls must just go with the familiar names in lieu of actually watching basketball games.
    -- Josh Levin, New Orleans

    Stanford coach Mike Montgomery and I were talking about the polls yesterday. "I used to vote in the coaches' poll," he said. "Do you think any of those guys watch tapes of all the other teams? Of course not." True, he was trying to justify why his own team's No. 1 ranking doesn't really mean much of anything, and we all know he's right. The polls are unfair. But so what? Ask yourself this: Would you rather not have them? They're part of what makes college basketball so fun. Truth be told, we like human error in these things (which is why computer rankings for professional teams, to say nothing of the BCS, aren't much fun).

    I am a transplant to North Carolina. In every game of North Carolina's that I happen to have watched this year or last, I have felt that Bill Guthridge was outcoached. My perception is that he might be able to recruit (or he inherits excellent players because he is at UNC), but that he really doesn't have what it takes to motivate and guide the team to the top. Is this perception accurate?
    -- Michael Busch, Boone, N.C.

    I'm of the opinion that we put too much emphasis on coaches in this game, but I will say this: It doesn't speak well of Guthridge that Brendan Haywood is the biggest underachiever in college basketball. This guy should be destroying teams with his talent, yet he never does. If a large part of coaching is motivation, then I'd have to give Guthridge low marks. Then again, I did some research and found that Guthridge himself is prone to torrid self-analysis:

  • Dec. 1, 1999 (after losing at home to Michigan State): "The best team won and by far the best-coached team won. We were outplayed and outcoached."

  • Feb. 21, 1998 (after losing at home to N.C. State): "We were outcoached, we were outplayed."

    Does this mean anything? Aside from the eerie sameness of the quotes, probably not. He's just taking the blame for a couple of upset losses at home, but from a language standpoint it's interesting how he has turned what's normally a don't-go-there word on its head. Usually, the word "outcoached" incenses coaches the same way "choker" infuriates athletes. It's about the worst thing someone else can say about a coach's performance. (Remember how pissed Jim Harrick got after UCLA's 1996 NCAA loss to Princeton when asked if he was "outcoached"?)

    I never get an answer about your thoughts on the University of Tulsa. They are now 11-1 with three big wins in a row, including a romp over No. 11 Tennessee. So what is your take on the Golden Hurricane?
    -- Chris Harmon, Tulsa, Okla.

    O.K., I believe! The facts don't lie. The Golden Hurricane has five players who average double-figures in points, they've beaten Tennessee, UNC Charlotte and Boston College, and they would be undefeated save for a one-point loss to Oral Roberts. Already people are talking about coach Bill Self leaving for a bigger-name school, but I'd like to see him stay and do some damage at Tulsa. As I point out above, I think they're capable of it.

    And lastly, our Misanthropist of the Week award goes to ... Harry Liggins from Fremont, Ohio:

    I will come out and say it: I hate Duke. With that in mind, I feel this year's most overrated player is Shane Battier. Just because Dick Vitale loves him, every time he hits the floor it is a charge. It is getting ridiculous. My close second goes to Mark Madsen. I'm not missing him at all. I was wondering if you had an opinion on the matter?

    Funny, I like both those guys a lot. Granted, Battier gets the Kevin McHale allowance, under which referees always give him the benefit of the doubt on close calls, but the simple truth is that he's the best player I've seen in years at taking charges. As for Mad Dog, I'm not exactly sure what your problem is with the guy, but I'll guess that you think he's not as good as advertised. Nobody ever said Madsen was a creator, but his rep as an emotional player overshadows his solid grasp of inside fundamentals and monster strength. Believe me, Stanford is better with him than without him.

    That's all for this week. I'll be back at you next Tuesday.

    Grant Wahl's College Basketball Mailbag appears regularly on Tuesdays during the college basketball season. Click here to send him a question.

     
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