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Looking out for No. 1
Posted: Tuesday February 15, 2000 12:48 PM
Sports Illustrated staff writer Grant Wahl will answer your questions every Tuesday during the college basketball season. Click here to send him a question. NEW YORK -- According to the up-to-the-minute estimates of the U.S. Census Bureau, the United States has a population of 274,256,903. And, for what it's worth, I can safely say that of those 274,256,903 people, only one -- yours truly -- has had the privilege of witnessing in person as every single No. 1 team in the AP poll has gone down this season. On Nov. 11, I was at Madison Square Garden to see Iowa upset No. 1 Connecticut 70-68. On Dec. 18, I was at the Cincinnati Gardens to watch Xavier outlast top-ranked Cincinnati 66-64. And on Jan. 8, I was at Maples Pavilion to observe as Arizona upended No. 1 Stanford 68-65. (By the way, my streak of fallen No. 1's is actually four; I was on hand at the Final Four in Tampa last year to see UConn take out No. 1 Duke.) So what does this mean? Not much, probably, except for a few things: 1) There might indeed be something to that SI jinx stuff; 2) Stanford coach Mike Montgomery didn't need to wear that look of utter horror on his face last week when he saw me show up in his locker room. (Get with the program, Coach, you were No. 2, not No. 1); 3) It's kind of a cool streak to have; and 4) For all you prognosticators out there, there's no way in Hades that Temple will upset No. 1 Cincinnati this weekend. After all, I won't be there. On to the 'Bag ... Grant, what's your take on the South region now that Syracuse has lost a
couple of games? It seems that top seed is wide open, at least at the
moment.
Right now I'd put my money on Tennessee getting the top seed in the South. (My other top seeds: Stanford in the West, Cincinnati in the Midwest and Duke in the East.) The No. 5 Volunteers are 20-3, lead the tough SEC East (including Florida, Kentucky and Vanderbilt) by a game and a half, and have a relatively pain-free schedule the rest of the way. (The toughest games are Kentucky at home and Vanderbilt on the road -- both paybacks for previous losses.) Other candidates for the South's top seed include Arizona, Michigan State and Ohio State, and while the Spartans could give Tennessee a run, I don 't see any of these teams finishing out the rest of the regular season without a hiccup along the way. Do you know whether anyone anywhere keeps a +/- stat like they do in
hockey? While I can imagine it would be a very complex task to keep track of
everything, it seems that this would be valuable in trying to assess factors
that don't show up in the boxscore. Second, can Mike McDonald carry Stanford
should they need him in the tournament, the way Art Lee used to? Or does it even
matter with the other scorers on the team?
Leave it to a Minnesotan to ask about +/- ratings in basketball. But you know what? It's not a bad idea. (For you folks who are totally ignorant, a +/- rating is the difference between the number of points your team scores and allows while you're in the game). Here's my question: Would the defensive contribution of Connecticut's Ricky Moore have shown up more last year on such a rating? My guess is that it probably would have, to an extent. What's more, the stat would do a good job of identifying guys who are on the court most often during runs (both negative and positive). In this day of computer stat-keeping, I don't think it would be that hard to measure, either, though I don't know of anybody who currently does so. If there's someone out there measuring +/- ratings in hoops (a Canadian, perhaps?), please let me know. As for McDonald, he's clearly a departure from Stanford's last two point guards, Lee and Brevin Knight, who could both score heavily if needed. The thing is, 1) Stanford doesn't need McDonald to score much, and 2) He is not, nor will he ever be, a big-time scorer. While McDonald still makes too many passing mistakes (especially on attempted back-doors, for some reason), he's doing a fine job of distributing the ball to Stanford's scorers. Keep in mind, the Cardinal has at least five players capable of scoring 20 points in any game: Mark Madsen, Jarron Collins, David Moseley, Ryan Mendez and Casey Jacobsen. And the more I see Jacobsen, Stanford's fearless (and deadly accurate) three-point gunner, the more I realize he's on the verge of becoming one of the college game's biggest stars Should we view Duke's loss to Maryland as a sign of mental and physical
fatigue? Although they blew out Virginia, the Blue Devils just couldn't compete
with the Terrapins. Is it because the starting lineup has to play so many
minutes? Will this be a factor in the NCAA tournament?
As good as Duke has been in each of the past two years, I've been surprised by the lack of depth on either team. Given that the Duke freshmen have been playing in games since Nov. 11, then, it's remarkable that there haven't been more tired efforts like the one against Maryland. And while I think "leadership" is generally an overrated factor, Chris Carrawell and Shane Battier should be able to provide motivation and experience for the freshmen to follow once the tournament starts. In other words, I don't think fatigue will be a very big factor for the Blue Devils. What do you have against the Auburn Tigers? Every time I read your articles,
you're constantly saying how Auburn is the "the most overrated
team" in America. I happen to think Auburn has a very good team, and
the only thing that's overrated are your narrow-minded comments.
Since several of you flamed me this week for calling Auburn names, I'll provide details: Chris Porter has no range beyond five feet, Mamadou N'Diaye is one of the nation's least imposing 7-footers, and Doc Robinson, never one to produce in the big games, might be one of the top 20 point guards in the NCAA tournament field if he's lucky. But don't just listen to me. Stanford beat the Tigers 67-58 on Nov. 27, and as one Cardinal player told me last week, "Auburn's horrible. Porter can't shoot at all, and the only reason people think he's any good is because of that dunk he had last year ." See? I'm not the only one! Until next week .... Click here to send your college basketball question to Grant Wahl. |
