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NCAA Bubble Watch
Several teams doing better job of backing out
Posted: Monday February 28, 2000 03:55 PM
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Nate Green and Indiana State are hoping that a December win in Bloomington will help their chances. AP |
By Stewart Mandel, CNNSI.com
By the time Selection Sunday finally arrives, this could well be the most anticlimactic bubble season in some time. That's because the few major-conference teams that aren't already a lock for the Dance are hardly making a case for why they should be.
Last week, we had penciled in Notre Dame as the sixth Big East invitee despite a perilous 16-10 record.
Oops.
The Irish went out this week and fell at home to a 12th-place Providence club, then blew a double-digit lead at Miami, which was playing without star Johnny Hemsley. Barring a run through the Big East tournament, NIT stands for "Notre Dame in this."
Then there's the N.C. State Wolfpack. Not that coach Herb Sendek needs to be reminded, but his team has been stuck at 15 wins since we started posting the Bubble Watch three weeks ago and has destroyed the ACC's chances at five bids. Virginia, meanwhile, fell at Florida State Saturday and is no lock for the fourth.
| Possible NCAA Seedings |
|---|
|
How the regions might shake down if Selection Sunday was today:
|
| Seed |
East |
South |
Midwest |
West |
| 1. |
Duke* |
Arizona* |
Cincinnati* |
Stanford |
| 2. |
Temple* |
Michigan St. |
Florida* |
Ohio St. |
| 3. |
Tennessee |
LSU |
Syracuse* |
Iowa St.* |
| 4. |
Okla. St. |
Indiana |
Maryland |
St. John's |
| 5. |
Kentucky |
Auburn |
Purdue* |
Texas |
| 6. |
Illinois |
Oklahoma |
Kansas |
Tulsa* |
| 7. |
UConn |
Oregon |
Utah* |
Vanderbilt |
| 8. |
Louisville |
Seton Hall |
Kent |
UNC |
| 9. |
Villanova |
Utah St.* |
Missouri |
Dayton |
| 10. |
DePaul |
Virginia |
Gonzaga |
Miami |
| 11. |
Pepperdine* |
SMU |
Fresno St. |
Tulane |
| 12. |
Butler* |
UNLV |
Bowl. Green* |
Indiana St.* |
| 13. |
Penn* |
Hofstra* |
Siena* |
SE Mo. St.* |
| 14. |
G. Mason* |
La.-Lafay.* |
Charleston* |
E. Wash.* |
| 15. |
Navy* |
Troy St.* |
C. Conn. St.* |
Sam Houston* |
| 16. |
Radford* |
Alcorn St.* |
S.C. St.* |
Valparaiso* |
|
* -- current conference leader used for automatic bid
|
| |
| |
The real bubble mystery will come once the dust settles from the mid-major conference tournaments, which should include its annual share of Cinderella champs. Then, the question becomes, does the regular-season winner still get a bid? Among the leagues that fall in that scenario this year are:
Big West: 23-5 Utah State's win over 21-4 Long Beach State is all that separates the two from a first-place tie. But Utah State is 42 spots higher in the RPI (37 to 79)
Mid-American: Kent, considered a lock due to its stellar RPI ranking (27th), has slipped behind Bowling Green in the standings. Ball State, Akron, Ohio, Marshall and Toledo are all capable of getting hot in March.
Missouri Valley: Just last year, the MVC sent three teams. One is more likely this time, but if that one is Southwest Missouri State or Southern Illinois, current leader Indiana State still deserves its first berth since Larry Bird's 1979 team.
Onto the breakdown:
| ACC |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
Duke (22-4)
Maryland (21-7)
|
Virginia (18-9)
North Carolina (17-11)
N.C. State (15-11)
|
Projected: 4 (Duke, Maryland, Virginia, UNC)
One more win -- most likely Wednesday against Georgia Tech -- should seal things for UNC. A win in the ACC Tournament would be nice for Virginia, which still lags at 70th in the RPI. |
| Atlantic 10 |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
Temple (22-4)
Dayton (20-6)
|
St. Bonaventure (17-8)
Xavier (18-9)
|
Projected: 2 (Temple, Dayton)
Realistically, Xavier or St. Bonaventure has to win the A-10 tourney for the conference to place three. The two face each other in a key matchup on Wednesday. |
| Big East |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
Syracuse (23-3)
St. John's (20-6)
Seton Hall (19-7)
Connecticut (19-8)
|
Miami (18-9)
Villanova (17-10)
Notre Dame (16-12)
|
Projected: 6 (Syracuse, Seton Hall, UConn, St. John's, Miami, Villanova)
You know it's a strange week when Villanova can lose by 28 (to Syracuse) and move to the good side of the ledger. But the last week of the season finds the Irish on life support and 'Nova facing Providence and B.C.
|
| Big Ten |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
Michigan St. (21-7)
Purdue (21-7)
Ohio State (20-5)
Indiana (19-6)
Illinois (18-8)
|
|
Projected: 5 (OSU, Michigan St., Indiana, Purdue, Illinois)
Immediate reaction to Indiana's upset of the Spartans on Saturday was it damaged MSU's hopes of a No. 1 seed, but it could be ancient history by the end of the Big Ten tourney. IU and Purdue play a huge game Tuesday in Bloomington.
|
| Big 12 |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
Iowa St. (24-4)
Oklahoma St. (22-4)
Oklahoma (22-5)
Kansas (21-7)
Texas (20-7)
|
Missouri (16-10)
Colorado (16-11)
|
Projected: 6 (OSU, ISU, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Mizzou)
Fading Missouri sure could use a decisive win before the end of the season to avoid being this year's poster child for undeserving big-conference school. Colorado's hopes rest on upsetting the Cowboys on Wednesday.
|
| Conference USA |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
Cincinnati (25-2)
|
Tulane (18-8)
DePaul (18-9)
Louisville (17-10)
South Florida (17-10)
Southern Miss (16-10)
|
Projected: 4 (Cincy, Tulane, DePaul, Louisville)
DePaul nearly shot itself in the foot against St. Louis on Saturday but survived. The Green Wave need to close with wins over Memphis and Marquette to be safe. Southern Miss is nearly done after dropping two straight.
|
| Mid-American |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
|
Kent (21-6)
|
Bowling Green (22-6)
Marshall (19-8)
Ball State (19-8)
|
Projected: 2 (Kent, Bowling Green)
Bowling Green made our projections for the first time on the strength of five straight wins. Despite the seemingly safe RPI, Kent needs to get back on track after losing to Bowling Green and Ohio. |
| Mountain West* |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
Utah (20-6)
|
UNLV (18-7)
BYU (16-9)
|
* -- no automatic bid
Projected: 2 (Utah, UNLV)
The last people in America to give BYU the benefit of the doubt finally give in after the Cougars' losses to Colorado State and Wyoming. The Rebels will be expected to win some MWC tourney games on their home court. |
| Pac-10 |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
Stanford (24-1)
Arizona (24-4)
Oregon (19-7)
|
Arizona State (16-10)
Cal (15-11)
UCLA (15-11)
|
Projected: 3 (Stanford, Arizona, Oregon)
We've given up trying to project which mediocre fourth team might emerge. But the best bet, ironically, may be the once-left-for-dead Bruins (29 RPI), who host the two Washington schools the season's final weekend.
|
| SEC |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
LSU (23-4)
Tennessee (22-5)
Florida (22-5)
Auburn (21-6)
Kentucky (20-8)
Vanderbilt (17-8)
|
Mississippi (16-11)
|
Projected: 6 (UT, Auburn, Kentucky, UF, LSU, Vandy)
The most anticipated and wide-open SEC Tournament in years will go a long way toward finalizing the seedings. Florida and Tennessee are decent contenders for a No. 1 seed if either takes the title. |
| WAC* |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
Tulsa (26-3)
|
SMU (21-5)
Fresno St. (19-9)
|
* -- no automatic bid
Projected: 3 (Tulsa, SMU, Fresno)
Fresno completed an impressive sweep of Tulsa last week. The WAC, which began the year with no guarantee of one bid, stands to be the big winner come Selection Sunday if the current Pac-10 and Mountain West projections stand.
|
| West Coast |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
|
Gonzaga (21-8)
|
Pepperdine (22-7)
|
Projected: 2 (Gonzaga, Pepperdine)
The Wave actually surpassed the 'Zags in the conference standings, but both have high enough RPIs (Pepperdine 44 and Gonzaga 47) to make it.
|
Projected one-bid conferences (with current leader) (19): America East (Hofstra), Big Sky (Eastern Washington), Big South (Radford), Big West (Utah State), Colonial (George Mason), Ivy (Penn), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid Continent (Valparaiso**), Mid Eastern Athletic (South Carolina St.), Midwestern Collegiate (Butler), Missouri Valley (Indiana St.), Northeast (Central Connecticut St.), Ohio Valley (SE Missouri St.), Patriot (Navy), Southern (College of Charleston), Southland (Sam Houston State), SWAC (Alcorn St.), Sun Belt (La.-Lafayette), Trans America (Troy State)
** -- Regular season champ Oakland ineligible for postseason
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