|
 |   |
|
EVENTS Fantasy Central Inside Game Multimedia Central Statitudes Your Turn Message Boards Email Newsletters Golf Guide Cities Work in Sports
CNNSI.com GROUP
COMMERCE |  |
Primed for an upset
Posted: Thursday March 09, 2000 09:52 AM
Sports Illustrated staff writer Grant Wahl will answer your questions every Tuesday during the college basketball season. Click here to send him a question. NEW YORK -- All right, so I'm jumping the gun on everybody, but I thought I'd go ahead and give you ... THE FIVE RANKED TEAMS MOST
LIKELY
Keep in mind a few things: 1) I'll use the AP poll, not the joke that poses as the coaches
poll.
Here we go ... AP RANK 1-5 Ohio State. Sure, this is a stretch, given that no No. 1 seed has ever lost in the first round, so the Buckeyes will have to get a 2 seed. But hear me out: For starters, Ohio State's guards have been up and down, especially Scoonie Penn, whose scoring and shooting percentage have dropped off from last season. The front line isn't deep, especially if Ken Johnson keeps succumbing to foul trouble. Finally, the Buckeyes are the only team in the top five with two inexcusable home losses. Notre Dame and Iowa? If OSU can lose easy games at home, who's to say it won't happen on a neutral court? AP RANK 6-10 Tennessee. I'll bet you thought I'd put Iowa State or Arizona or LSU here instead. Nope. The Volunteers will go down for a couple of reasons: First, Tony Harris is as volatile as Uranium-238, and he'll prove the axiom that guard play wins (or, in this case, loses) NCAA tournament games. Second, how many times has Tennessee looked unprepared in recent tournaments? Think back to Southwest Missouri State last year or Illinois State two years ago, games the Vols should have won. AP RANK 11-15 Texas. Ever since they beat a Mateen Cleaves- less Michigan State last fall, the Longhorns have failed to bag a single surprising victory. Chris Mihm and Gabe Muoneke are fine players, but neither appears ready to lead a team, Kenyon Martin- like, to must-wins. UT's guards aren't very good, either, and how many times have Rick Barnes' teams underachieved in the tournament? AP RANK 16-20 St. John's. Call me a cynic, but I'm expecting the NCAA to swoop down on Erick Barkley again; why not the night before the tournament starts? Even if that doesn't happen, I'm not sold on the Johnnies' inside play, and the Big East is a vastly overrated conference this season. AP RANK 21-25 Miami. Which brings us to the Hurricanes, your Big East co-champions (and losers to Memphis, Louisiana-Lafayette, Illinois State and Providence). Congrats on saving your season and winning the conference, guys, but I saw the collapse against Purdue last year. I'm not fooled. On to the 'Bag ... Do you think, with Stanford's loss last Saturday, that the Cardinal needs to
beat Arizona on Thursday in order to be guaranteed the No. 1 seed in the West
Region?
As long as Stanford beats Arizona State this Saturday, I think it would be a joke if the Cardinal didn't get a No. 1 seed in the West -- win or lose against Arizona. They'd only have three losses, after all, and all three would have come to tournament teams (Arizona and UCLA). Compare that to their likely replacements as a No. 1 seed, Ohio State (five losses), Michigan State (seven), and Temple (five). Also, consider that while Stanford's schedule isn't the toughest in the country, the Cardinal has still beaten Duke, Auburn, UCLA and Oregon (twice). So now what do we think about Oklahoma? The Sooners started out great, ran
into some rough times later in the season, and have finished pretty well heading
into the Big 12 tournament. Do you see them making any sort of run like they did
last
year?
What a strange win the Sooners had at Oklahoma State on Saturday. I'm still trying to figure out how they came back from the dead to pull it out. I could easily see them making the Sweet 16 again, for two reasons: Their talent level is about the same as last year's team, and this year Kelvin Sampson has cleaned out malcontents like Ryan Humphrey. Everybody's on the same page, and Eduardo Najera is a proven winner. What I don't understand is why Sooners fans dislike their team so much. When I was in Oklahoma two weeks ago they were still reminiscing about the Billy Tubbs days. Get with the program, folks. You've got a good team. In your opinion, what are the most overrated and underrated conferences over
the past five seasons? Also, do you ever see Tommy Penders coaching at a major
program
again?
Overrated: the ACC (it happened again this year) and the Big East. Underrated: the Big 12, the MAC and the SWAC (if we're doing a battle of the bands). As for Penders, I'm assuming you're referring to the GW head coach, and not to his son (and assistant). All I can say is, if I were starting to rebuild a program, and I really wanted to get on the map, the last thing I would do is hire Penders. His scapegoating of assistant Eddie Oran in the fiasco at Texas a few years ago would convince any smart AD to steer clear. Unfortunately, smart ADs are an extremely rare species, so I'm sure you'll see Penders at a major program soon. Where will Oregon be seeded, and how do you think the Ducks will fare in the
Big Dance? Nobody knows much about them, but I think they are Sweet 16 material.
High-flying, sweet-shooting senior guard Alex Scales must be one of the
best-kept secrets in college hoops this season. What do you think of Scales'
game?
You might be right about Scales being the best-kept secret in the country. He had consecutive 30-point games against Southern Cal and Arizona State last week and helped lead the Ducks' upset of Arizona, and he's become one of my favorite players to watch. (When I can see him, of course. I was at the Stanford-Oregon game last month, and I finally got to see a decent Pac-10 game here in New York last Saturday with Arizona-Oregon.) My guess is that the 21-7 Ducks, third in the Pac-10, will get a No. 6 seed, win their first game and hope for a beatable No. 3 seed in their region. Who knows? Maybe it'll be Tennessee or Texas. Now I have some questions for you: Is it really true that McArthur Court is the oldest arena in Division I? (How long has Oregon been a state anyway? Yesterday, my office neighbor, John Walters, had visions of Lewis and Clark playing one-on-one in Mac Court.) Who's less attractive, Chris Christofferson or Flo Hartenstein? And why do you call the place The Pit? You have great fans, so I'm sure you could come up with something better than that, right? Who is your choice for coach of the year and why? Coach K (Duke) and Mike
Montgomery (Stanford) seem to be garnering most of the attention, but I feel
Lute Olson (Arizona) deserves the award the most. Your opinion,
please!
Apparently you didn't check out my diatribe on coaches a couple weeks ago, Chris. That said, I realize they do have some influence on the game, so I'll go ahead and give the award to ... none of the guys you mentioned. Iowa State's Larry Eustachy gets my vote. Who expected the Cyclones to win the Big 12 and be a legit Final Four contender? Not a soul. See you next week.
Click here to send your college basketball
question to Grant Wahl.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
