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Forecast has been clear
Updated: Thursday March 08, 2001 3:58 PM
Sports Illustrated senior writer Grant Wahl answers your college basketball questions every Wednesday. Click here to send him a question. SEATTLE -- Got a question this week from Joe S. of Cleveland, who's wondering why sportswriters (including me) aren't eating enough crow about those Arizona-will-be-the-best-team-in-a-decade predictions that got tossed around in November. Good point, Joe. We should be held accountable, but you know what? Aside from overrating Arizona and underrating Iowa State, I think I've done all right this season. And so, at the risk of sounding like one of those hackneyed sitcom "flashback" episodes, I bring you a brief reprise of the good, the bad, and the ugly from my college hoops crystal ball for 2000-01: Nov. 15, 2000: "Arizona's Jason Gardner has already talked about his hope to be as good as those UNLV teams of 1990-91, and I think he might be underestimating his own team. ... By the end of the year, Arizona will be a better team than [the] Rebels were." The result: Well, hell. At 17-7, the Wildcats are in third place in their own conference these days. Explanations range from selfishness to early-season suspensions to not having Lute Olson on the sidelines, but a lot of it simply has to do with unrealistic expectations. For example, had Loren Woods ever given any indication that he would be player-of-the-year material before this season? Not at all. But he was absent from Arizona's upset loss in the NCAAs last year, and so we all decided Woods was the missing link. Hasn't happened that way. No, the Wildcats aren't UNLV-caliber. Then again, the end of the year isn't upon us, not yet. Nov. 8, 2000: Stanford at preseason No. 2. "Better than [No. 3] Duke? Yep. ... Proof comes Dec. 21, when Stanford meets -- and beats -- Duke for the second straight year." The result: Money. Nov. 29, 2000: "The Jayhawks have so many weapons ... that they should win the Big 12 without much resistance, though Oklahoma (and perhaps Missouri) won't just roll over." The result: It's the Cyclones, stupid. Second year in a row Iowa State has fooled me completely. Larry Eustachy could take a roster of untrained dachshunds and turn it into a Final Four threat. Nov. 8, 2000: "I need a new team to kick around this year, a new 'most overrated team in the country.' Current candidates are Tennessee and Maryland." The result: Jerry Green and Gary Williams step up big-time. Jan. 10, 2001: "B.C. could be a lot like last year's Syracuse team, which went undefeated until January, then turned into a decent (but not outstanding) NCAA tournament team. ... But the Big East is a balanced conference, and while I don't see the Eagles dropping nine of 12, I could see them going into a 6-6 swoon." The result: Boston College is 8-3 since, a testament to Troy Bell, coach Al Skinner and a team that wouldn't be a bad sleeper bet for the Final Four. Jan. 31, 2001: Following Duke's last-minute comeback win against Maryland: "I think the Terps are going to go out like a lamb from here. Too many fragile psyches." The result: Money. Maryland has gone 3-4 since, including a home loss to ACC ugly-stepchild Florida State. For your further perusal, feel free to check out my preseason Top 20 (way to have Illinois and Stanford so high, but where is Virginia?) and the second annual Magic Eight, the octet from which I guarantee the national champion will emerge. On to the 'Bag ... What do you think about Matt Doherty receiving some recognition as possible ACC -- or even national -- coach of the year?
Doherty has had a remarkable debut season in Chapel Hill, but I think there are more deserving national-coach-of-the-year candidates, guys like Eustachy (my choice for the second year in a row), Skinner, Providence's Tim Welsh, Ole Miss' Rod Barnes, Minnesota's Dan Monson and Stanford's Mike Montgomery. As for the ACC, I'd vote for Doherty if the Heels can hang on to win the conference title. Otherwise, I'd give it to Paul Hewitt at Georgia Tech. Why do analysts go crazy for 7-footers who can run up the court without tripping and think that those guys will bring the championship trophy to their respective universities? See: Loren Woods. The last school to win it all with a legitimate 7-foot impact player was Georgetown with Patrick Ewing. Not LSU with Shaquille O'Neal, not Wake Forest with Tim Duncan, not Houston with Akeem Olajuwon (since he was Akeem back then).
Come on, Eric, where's the love for George Zidek? Seriously, though, that's a smart argument. I'd say it's another example of the fallacy that future pros are always the best college players. The pundits who drool over college 7-footers are the guys who put a lot of stock in the NBA. That's not the case in 'Bag precincts, of course, and all you have to do is look at your evidence: Teams that win titles value speed and skill over size. Ask yourself, when was the last time you heard the phrase "Twin Towers" said with a straight face? What causes a program like Gonzaga, or any other small school, to flourish? I just assume that lots of good, smart, hard-working guys (like Mark Few) coaching in Division I are never able to outrecruit or outspend the big schools. What, in your opinion, are the keys to success? Is it luck? Is it sticking with a "program"?
For answers, let's look at Gonzaga, which is undefeated in the WCC and preparing to make another extended tournament run. The Bulldogs coaching staff has been extremely smart in its recruiting by picking guys who, for ignorance and other reasons, haven't been snapped up by the Pac-10 -- players like Matt Santangelo, Richie Frahm, Casey Calvary, Washington transfer Dan Dickau, and now freshman Blake Stepp. Of course, Gonzaga's coaches have had a keen eye for talent going all the way back to John Stockton, and they've been smart to make use of the program's tradition, from getting players to the NBA to winning NCAA tournament games. The last part of the equation is simply good coaching and preparation from leaders like Few and, before him, Monson. Unfortunately, in a year in which Stanford coach Mike Montgomery has his best team ever, the Cardinal were dealt a devastating blow last week when backup center Curtis Borchardt was lost for the season with a stress fracture in his right foot. I was absolutely stunned by the lack of media coverage of this injury, which might end Stanford's run at a national title.
Simmer down, Denny. Didn't you see the discussion about 7-footers a couple of questions back? Borchardt is a demonic shot-blocker who may eventually become an offensive force at Stanford, but it's not like he was doing that before he got injured. The Collins twins are having exceptional years, and Justin Davis is turning into a solid backup. Besides, with Borchardt's chronic injuries, the Tree has gotten used to playing -- and winning -- without him. Theme of the week: Just because a 7-footer has an NBA future doesn't mean he's the key to a national title. (See: Ogg, Alan. ) At the start of the season many predicted that Arizona's players would leave early for the NBA following this year. How does it look now? I'd like to see the Wildcats play together for at least another year, but in this day and age that is doubtful.
Purely speculating, I'd predict that of the four Cats in question ( Gilbert Arenas, Jason Gardner, Richard Jefferson and Michael Wright ), Arenas is the most likely to leave. His game may be ready for the next level, but is his head? Keep in mind, Arenas has refused to talk to the Tucson-area media for much of this up-and-down season. Jefferson is the next most likely to declare, but while he has mouth-watering hops, his game has been inconsistent. Wright has had the best season of any of the four, but I think he realizes that he needs to prove more with his mid-range shooting. Gardner, meanwhile, has seen Duke's Jason Williams move past him to the head of the sophomore-point-guard class. I'd say at least one will go pro, probably Arenas. But after seeing their stock drop this season, all of them would be better served by staying at Arizona. How many Big Ten teams do you think will go to the NCAAs? And which conference will get burned by the selection committee?
I think you'll see six Big Ten teams make the tournament: Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State. The Buckeyes are playing well lately, and Iowa is going to continue tumbling in the absence of Luke Recker. I think the West Coast Conference might get burned if Gonzaga doesn't win the conference tournament. With what the Zags and Pepperdine have done in recent years, you'd think the WCC would get two bids if necessary, but I doubt it will.
I thought I'd try to combine two of your favorite sports in one question. Who's a worse coach, Pat Kennedy (DePaul) or Thomas Rongen (D.C. United)?
Let's compare.
Personnel acquisition. Kennedy has at least shown the ability to recruit well. Rongen (with help from Kevin Payne ) has brought in ... Raúl Díaz Arce. Advantage: Kennedy.
Nurturing talent. Bobby Simmons and Chris Albright. Need we say more? OK, OK, United's Bobby Convey has a bright future ... in Europe. Advantage: Rongen (barely).
The embarrassment factor. Is Kennedy another Ray Meyer? Is Rongen another Bruce Arena? Noooo, the fans groan. Advantage: Push.
Coaching style. Kennedy: Roll out the ball. Rongen: Roll out the ball. Advantage: Push.
Respect among players. Kennedy: Nope. Rongen: Ever watch the United players during Rongen's halftime "speeches" on MLS ExtraTime? Not pretty. Advantage: Push.
The Verdict. All even. First man out of town gets a case of Marlboros as a parting gift.
ALAN OGG IN THE CROSSHAIRS!
Our latest WATN candidate/cult hero, former UAB 7-footer Alan Ogg, has been traced to Panama City Beach, Fla., but the Oggster has been unresponsive to my messages. Alan, pal, I can't write an Ode to Ogg without you. Please call!
Check this space in coming days for breaking Ogg updates.
See you next week.
Click here to send your college basketball question to Grant Wahl.
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