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NCAA Bubble Watch
Borderline teams live, die by conference tourneys
Posted: Sunday March 04, 2001 9:51 PM
Updated: Tuesday March 06, 2001 12:27 PM
| |
Villanova coach Steve Lappas reacts during a costly 65-53 loss to Miami over the weekend. AP |
By Stewart Mandel, CNNSI.com
The week of reckoning is finally here. The last chance for teams on the bubble to make their case.
But before we go any further, CNNSI.com is forced to point out a disturbing trend we've noticed across the country: increasing misuse of the term "bubble."
Just to clear things up, a bubble team is one that either a) has enough overall wins (16-20) but lacks impressive details (RPI top 50 wins, road wins, etc.), or, b) has struggled so badly down the stretch as to put its hopes in jeopardy.
| Possible NCAA Seedings |
|---|
|
How the regions might shake down if Selection Sunday was today:
|
| |
East |
Midwest |
South |
West |
| 1. |
UNC* |
Mich. St. |
Duke |
Stanford* |
| 2. |
UCLA |
Iowa St.* |
Illinois* |
Florida |
| 3. |
B.C.* |
Arizona |
Miss. |
Kansas |
| 4. |
Kentucky* |
N.D. |
Texas |
Virginia |
| 5. |
St. Joe's* |
Maryland |
Prov. |
Wisc. |
| 6. |
Cincy* |
Syracuse |
Okla. |
Fresno St.* |
| 7. |
Ohio St. |
Wake |
Cal |
Indiana |
| 8. |
G'town |
USC |
Arkansas |
Tenn. |
| 9. |
Mizzou |
Alabama |
Creighton |
Xavier |
| 10. |
Georgia |
Penn St. |
UConn |
Ga. Tech |
| 11. |
Okla. St. |
Utah* |
Butler* |
Miami |
| 12. |
Georgia St.* |
Richmond |
UC Irvine* |
Hofstra* |
| 13. |
W. Kent.* |
Gonzaga* |
G. Mason* |
Ind. St.* |
| 14. |
C. Mich.* |
Holy Cross* |
McNeese* |
CS North* |
| 15. |
Iona* |
Valpo* |
E. Illinois* |
Princeton* |
| 16. |
Monmouth* |
Winthrop*/
Ala. St.* |
UNCG* |
Hampton* |
|
* -- automatic bid (current conference leader used for most).
|
| |
| |
Georgia Tech, UConn, Wake Forest, Xavier -- these are faux bubble teams, ones who are bubble in name only, not true criteria. The Jackets have beaten UCLA, Kentucky, Maryland, Wake Forest and Virginia twice, for crying out loud.
Examples of wannabe bubble teams are South Florida, Utah State and anyone from the WAC besides Fresno State. These are teams who have literally no chance of getting a bid without winning their conference tournament yet manage to keep hanging around bubble conversations.
Teams we've identified as the most blatant, textbook bubble teams heading into this final week are Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Miami, Penn State, Southern Miss, Temple and Villanova. Each would do well to make a lengthy run in their league tourneys this week, but unlike your token wannabe, none would be officially eliminated if they don't. As you'll see by the projections below, many of these teams still are presently slotted for the field of 65.
Which brings us to what could be the overriding factor when the selection committee meets in some cushy hotel this weekend.
The last few teams into the field this week will be the first to slide out if/when a couple Cinderellas emerge from conference tournaments this week, a la St. Louis (Conference USA eighth seed) and Arkansas (15-14) a year ago. There was already one occurrence at the Missouri Valley tournament, where Indiana State's upset of top seed Creighton on Sunday may steal away an at-large bid from somewhere else.
So, dear bubble teams, you can pore over the RPIs and schedule-strength ratings as much as you like. But your fate may actually be determined by what happens in the following conference tournaments, those we've deemed most likely of producing a bubble-bursting surprise champ:
Big East: This is a league that already has six definite teams. But those don't even include Miami, Seton Hall and host St. John's, all of whom have the ability to make a run through the topsy-turvy field.
Conference USA: Cincinnati has emerged once again as the class of the league, but that doesn't mean the Bearcats have to win the tournament. Watch out for an emotional Louisville squad, playing for departing coach Denny Crum, on its home floor, no less.
Mountain West: Utah emerged from a three-way tie with BYU and Wyoming for the league tournament's top seed. Best bet for two bids is a Utah-Wyoming final.
WAC: This one is ripe, because 24-5 Fresno State is in either way. But Tulsa, TCU, SMU and UTEP all are capable of pulling the upset.
On to the complete breakdown. Be sure to check CNNSI.com's Big Dance Card all week for constant bubble updates.
| ACC |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
Duke (26-4)
North Carolina (23-5)
Virginia (20-7)
Wake Forest (19-9)
Maryland (20-9)
|
Georgia Tech (16-11)
|
Projected: 6 (UNC, Duke, Virginia, Wake Forest, Maryland, Ga. Tech)
Any lingering doubt -- and we swear there's not much -- would be erased if tournament host Tech knocks off Virginia for the third time. |
| Atlantic 10 |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
St. Joseph's (24-5)
Xavier (21-6)
|
Temple (18-12)
|
Projected: 2 (Xavier, St. Joseph's)
The Owls had squeezed out equally marginal Southern Miss for our last at-large bid -- until Creighton lost later in the day. |
| Big East |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
Boston College (23-4)
Georgetown (23-6)
Syracuse (22-7)
Providence (21-8)
Notre Dame (19-8)
|
Connecticut (19-10)
West Virginia (17-10)
Villanova (17-11)
Miami (16-11)
|
Projected: 7 (Georgetown, Syracuse, B.C., N.D., Providence, UConn, Miami)
'Nova's RPI rating is 21 spots higher than Miami's, but otherwise they're dead even in record and quality of wins. The 'Canes, though, swept the Wildcats during the regular season. |
| Big Ten |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
Michigan St. (24-3)
Illinois (23-6)
Ohio State (20-9)
Indiana (19-11)
Wisconsin (18-9)
|
Iowa (18-11)
Penn State (17-10)
Minnesota (17-11)
|
Projected: 6 (MSU, Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Penn St.)
PSU's 20-point home collapse against Ohio State pretty much sums up their recent games. But they haven't collapsed as bad as Iowa, which needs two Big Ten tourney wins.
|
| Big 12 |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
Iowa State (25-4)
Oklahoma (23-6)
Texas (23-7)
Kansas (23-5)
|
Oklahoma State (19-8)
Missouri (18-11)
Baylor (17-10)
|
Projected: 6 (Iowa St., Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma St.)
At 10-6 in the conference and with a rising RPI (47), the Cowboys look good. So does Mizzou now that Kareem Rush is back.
|
| Colonial |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
|
GEORGE MASON (18-11)
|
Richmond (21-6)
|
Projected: 2 (Richmond, GEORGE MASON)
It would be hard to leave out regular season champ Richmond (No. 43 RPI, 9-1 past 10) considering how badly some of their peers on the bubble have faltered. |
| Conference USA |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
|
Cincinnati (21-8)
|
Southern Miss (21-7)
Charlotte (18-10)
South Florida (17-12)
|
Projected: 1 (Cincinnati)
Southern Miss quietly has entered the fray with five consecutive wins but is hurt by the quality of the league. Advancing to the C-USA title game would really help. |
| Missouri Valley |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
|
INDIANA STATE (21-11)
|
Creighton (24-7)
|
Projected: 2 (Creighton, INDIANA STATE)
The Bluejays are actually in decent shape despite the semifinal loss, thanks to a No. 23 RPI and 10-game win streak before the upset. |
| Pac-10 |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
Stanford (27-1)
Arizona (21-7)
UCLA (20-7)
Cal (19-9)
USC (19-9)
|
|
Projected: 5 (Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Cal, USC)
This league's bubble picture hasn't changed since Pauly Shore was relevant. |
| SEC |
| Locks |
On Bubble |
Mississippi (23-6)
Florida (22-5)
Tennessee (21-9)
Alabama (20-9)
Kentucky (19-9)
Arkansas (19-9)
|
Auburn (17-12)
Mississippi St. (16-11)
Georgia (16-13)
|
Projected: 7 (UT, Alabama, Miss., Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia)
'Bama is in trouble, having lost four in a row and still lacking a good road win. UGA needs one more win but has lowly LSU in its tourney opener. |
Projected one-bid conferences (with conference tourney champ or top remaining seed) (21): America East (Hofstra), Big Sky (Cal State Northridge), Big South (WINTHROP), Big West (UC Irvine), Ivy (Princeton), Metro Atlantic (IONA), Mid American (Central Michigan), Mid Continent (Valparaiso), Mid Eastern Athletic (Hampton), Midwestern Collegiate (Butler), Mountain West (Utah), Northeast (MONMOUTH), Ohio Valley (EASTERN ILLINOIS), Patriot (Holy Cross), Southern (UNC-GREENSBORO), Southland (McNeese St.), SWAC (Alabama St.), Sun Belt (Western Kentucky), WAC (Fresno St.), Trans America (GEORGIA ST.), West Coast (GONZAGA)
Teams who have earned actual automatic bids in ALL CAPS.
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