Big East a big mess when it comes to tourney hopefuls
Posted: Monday February 11, 2002 10:21 AM
Updated: Monday February 11, 2002 3:37 PM
Troy Bell and Boston College scored a much-needed win over Miami on Sunday. AP
By Stewart Mandel, CNNSI.com
As any properly trained selection committee member will tell you, the NCAA pays no attention to number of teams per conference when formulating its tournament bracket.
But something tells us they'd take notice if, upon doing a rough draft, 10 teams from the same league showed up -- considering no one's ever sent more than seven.
Ten, however, is precisely how many Big East teams still harbor realistic tournament aspirations at this late point in the season. It would be impossible for that many to make it, seeing as they'll be facing (and beating) each other numerous times down the stretch, but seven or even a record eight are not out of the question.
Let's quickly handicap the race for the leaue's six bubble teams. (We're counting Miami, Pittsburgh, UConn and Notre Dame as near-mortal locks.)
Seeding the 65
Compiled as if Selection Sunday was Feb. 10. Teams not matched to locations.
No.
East
Midwest
1.
Duke*
Kansas*
2.
Alabama*
Florida
3.
Marquette
Indiana*
4.
Miami
Gonzaga
5.
UCLA
Oregon
6.
Texas
Wake Forest
7.
Stanford
USC
8.
Oklahoma St.
Mississippi St.
9.
Minnesota
Syracuse
10.
Michigan St.
Memphis
11.
Pepperdine*
Missouri
12.
Hawaii
Butler*
13.
C. Connecticut*
Southern Illinois*
14.
Hampton*
Davidson*
15.
Yale*
McNeese St.*
16.
Alcorn St.*/ NC Asheville*
Vermont*
No.
South
West
1.
Maryland
Cincinnati*
2.
Oklahoma
Arizona*
3.
Pittsburgh*
Kentucky
4.
Georgia
Ohio State
5.
Illinois
UConn
6.
Cal
N.C. State
7.
Virginia
Utah
8.
Texas Tech
Ole Miss
9.
Notre Dame
Xavier*
10.
W. Kentucky*
St. John's
11.
South Florida
Tulsa*
12.
Kent State*
Utah State*
13.
Wyoming*
NC Wilmington*
14.
Troy State*
Valparaiso*
15.
Tennessee Tech*
Montana St.*
16.
American*
Marist*
* -- Automatic bid (current leader)
Syracuse (18-7): We were presumptuous in counting SU in the "lock" column last week, as the Orangemen are in the midst of a tailspin, dropping five of seven and sliding into the 40s in the RPI. It could get worse, with road games at Notre Dame and Seton Hall next. But at 7-4 in the conference, just a simple 3-2 finish would likely clinch a berth.
St. John's (16-7): The Red Storm took a huge step toward getting off the ledge with their 85-83 overtime win over UConn on Saturday. It not only put the Johnnies -- No. 36 in the RPI -- above .500 in league play, it gave them an impressive 3-2 mark against Top 25 teams. Barring a total collapse, SJU will likely be invited to the Dance.
Boston College (16-7): The defending conference champs seemed headed toward a certain date with the NIT before Sunday's win over Miami. They're still not quite over the hump, what with losses in six of their last 10 games -- including at mediocre Providence and Virginia Tech -- but could get back in the mix with a win at UConn or St. John's.
Georgetown (14-8): The Hoyas are the definition of a bubble team: Mired in that RPI gray area of the high 50s, 5-5 in their last 10, 5-5 in conference, 3-3 on the road and unable to catch a break, falling to Notre Dame in four overtimes Saturday. They're currently our last team left out and need to take care of business at Seton Hall and Villanova this week.
Rutgers (14-8): Right now, their No. 75 RPI has the Scarlet Knights on the outside looking in. But with wins over both UConn and Syracuse, Rutgers could start to make a decent case by winning one of its upcoming home games against Notre Dame or Miami.
Villanova (13-8): Scored a major win over UCLA on Saturday, but too bad for the Wildcats it didn't count in the Big East standings, where they're 4-6. That and a No. 54 RPI leave them suspect right now.
On to our conference-by-conference bubble breakdown, which will be updated every Monday between now and the start of March Madness:
ACC
Locks
On Bubble
Duke (22-1)
Maryland (19-3)
N.C. State (18-6)
Virginia (15-6)
Wake Forest (17-7)
If Selection Sunday were today: 5 (Duke, Maryland, Virginia, N.C. State, Wake Forest)
Wake Forest may have seven losses, but its schedule is so tough (Duke, Kansas, Maryland, Cincinnati) that the Deacons remain in the RPI Top 20. N.C. State isn't far behind at 28.
Syracuse (18-7)
St. John's (16-7)
Boston College (16-7)
Georgetown (14-8)
Rutgers (14-8)
Villanova (13-8)
If Selection Sunday were today: 6 (Miami, Pittsburgh, UConn, Syracuse, Notre Dame, St. John's)
Looking ahead, the final Big East standings might end up resembling today's parity-ridden NFL: A couple of teams at 11-5, a couple at 3-13, and everyone else at 8-8. Georgetown, Rutgers and Villanova are those treading .500 most closely.
If Selection Sunday were today: 5 (Ohio State, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan State)
Iowa is just killing itself, having dropped not only its last two (Indiana and Minnesota) but seven of its last 10. Michigan State didn't help itself by losing to Northwestern but rebounded by beating Ohio State to improve its record against Top 25 teams to 4-2. The Spartans' 2-5 road mark is still an eyesore, though.
If Selection Sunday were today: 6 (Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Missouri, Texas)
Following its loss to Baylor -- which stands just 118th in the RPI -- Missouri is treading dangerously. At No. 58 in the RPI, the Tigers are our lowest-rated at-large team, but a 6-4 league record helps.
Conference USA
Locks
On Bubble
Cincinnati (22-2)
Marquette (21-3)
Memphis (20-5)
South Florida (16-7)
Charlotte (14-8)
Louisville (13-9)
If Selection Sunday were today: 4 (Cincinnati, Marquette, Memphis, South Florida)
USF has quietly risen to 37th in the RPI and its early-season wins over Pittsburgh and Cal look better every week. Charlotte still has a respectable 44 RPI and is 7-3 over its past 10 but is now 0-5 against Top 25 teams. And its 19-point loss at No. 138 St. Louis on Saturday was just bad.
Mountain West
Locks
On Bubble
Utah (17-4)
Wyoming (16-5)
BYU (14-7)
New Mexico (14-8)
If Selection Sunday were today: 2 (Utah, Wyoming)
Wyoming moved into a first-place tie (and holds the tiebreaker) after going to Salt Lake and snapping Utah's 13-game win streak. At 78th in the RPI, the Cowboys aren't likely to make it without an automatic bid. BYU is 42nd but holds an ugly 1-7 road record.
If Selection Sunday were today: 6 (Arizona, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford)
The Pac-10 standings change every week -- now Arizona is in first -- because all six contenders stand within a game of each other and are at least 8-4 in league play.
SEC
Locks
On Bubble
Alabama (20-4)
Florida (18-4)
Georgia (18-6)
Ole Miss (18-6)
Mississippi State (18-6)
Kentucky (16-6)
South Carolina (14-9)
Vanderbilt (14-9)
Arkansas (12-10)
If Selection Sunday were today: 6 (Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Florida, Kentucky)
The main thing holding back South Carolina (No. 45 RPI) and Vandy (43) is they are tied for last in their division at 4-6. The two square off Saturday. Meanwhile Georgia faces a huge week, hosting both Florida and Kentucky. Arkansas remains on the radar solely because of its No. 29 RPI; no one above 33 has ever been left out.
West Coast
Locks
On Bubble
Gonzaga (22-3)
Pepperdine (17-5)
If Selection Sunday were today: 2 (Gonzaga, Pepperdine)
The two keep cruising along, beating six remaining conference members who can barely break .500.
WAC
Locks
On Bubble
Hawaii (20-4)
Tulsa (20-4)
Louisiana Tech (15-7)
Fresno State (15-10)
If Selection Sunday were today: 2 (Hawaii, Tulsa)
The Warriors and Hurricane now stand in a first-place tie at 11-2 following Hawaii's loss to Louisiana Tech, but the Warriors won their only head-to-head meeting thus far.
One-bid conferences (with current leader) (21): America East (Vermont), Atlantic Sun (Troy State), Atlantic 10 (Xavier), Big Sky (Montana State), Big South (UNC-Asheville), Big West (Utah State), Colonial (UNC-Wilmington), Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Yale), Metro Atlantic (Marist), Mid-American (Kent State); Mid Continent (Valparaiso), Mid Eastern Athletic (Hampton), Missouri Valley (Southern Illinois), Northeast (Central Connecticut), Ohio Valley (Tennessee Tech), Patriot (American), Southern (Davidson), Southland (McNeese State), SWAC (Alcorn State), Sun Belt (Western Kentucky)
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