CNNSI.com’s Stewart Mandel breaks down this week’s big game.
No. 1 Florida (18-2) at No. 6 Kentucky (16-3)
Tuesday, Feb. 4, 9 p.m. EST (ESPN)
Rupp Arena (23,042)
It's the showdown of the season thus far in the SEC, as newly anointed No. 1 Florida puts its 14-game winning streak on the line against Kentucky's 10-game tear. Both teams are undefeated in league play, the Gators at 7-0, the Wildcats 6-0. The SEC East foes have developed quite the rivalry in recent years, sharing the division title each of the past three seasons, but Florida has won at Rupp only once since 1989. The Wildcats swept both meetings a year ago.
Keith Bogans Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Backcourts
This would appear to be a strength for both teams. Sturdy senior point guard Justin Hamilton (8.5 points per game, 4.5 assists) anchors the show for Florida, while explosive freshman Anthony Roberson (13.8 ppg, 41.8 percent 3-pointers) can come off the bench and drain outside shots. After struggling much of the season, senior Brett Nelson has slowly been putting his slump behind him, draining nine of his past 15 from three. Kentucky counters with Keith Bogans, the leading scorer for either team (16.7 ppg, 39.4 percent 3-pointers), and ever-improving point guard Gerald Fitch (12.2 ppg). Fellow point Cliff Hawkins may play alongside Fitch if both Roberson and Hamilton are on the floor, while 6-5 juco transfer Antwain Barbour adds more size on the perimeter. Look for the defensive-minded Hamilton to key on Bogans when Kentucky has the ball.
Matt Walsh Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Frontcourts
Kentucky is extremely deep in its frontcourt, starting three players between 6-foot-6 and 6-9 in Marquis Estill (11.5 pgg, 5.5 rebounds), Erik Daniels (9.4, 5.7) and Chuck Hayes (8.9, 6.3), plus 6-11 Jules Camara (7.7. 4.0) and swingman Kelenna Azubike coming off the bench. While the 'Cats like to play in the paint, they'll be extended to all parts of the court by Florida's versatile frontline of Matt Bonner (14.3 ppg, 46.2 percent 3-pointers), Matt Walsh (14.2 ppg, 45.3 percent 3-pointers) and David Lee (11.0 ppg, 7.4 rebounds). If the Gators find they can't match up defensively with Kentucky's larger players inside, they may call on a pair of 6-9 backups, Bonnell Colas and Adrian Moss, to play significant minutes. The Wildcats would appear to have the advantage here, unless Bonner and Walsh catch fire from the outside.
This should be a very close, evenly matched game with one team going on a run only to have the other match it. Kentucky's guards will be challenged by Florida's halfcourt press as well as their array of outside shooters. But that doesn't mean the Gators won't take it inside. They could use a big game from power forward Lee. The Wildcats should be able to get some easy looks under the basket and could wear down Walsh and Bonner with their muscle, but the key will be whether Bogans is on from outside. They'll also need to get some scoring from Fitch or Estill.
Kentucky guard Keith Bogans
Sr., 6-5, 213 pounds
vs.
Florida guard Justin Hamilton
Sr., 6-3, 225 pounds
If it seems like Bogans has been at Kentucky forever ... you are correct. He's recovered nicely from his struggles as a junior, however, making 47.3 percent of his field goals, up from 39.4. Hamilton is primarily a point guard, but he is too good a defender (146 career steals) not to stick on the 'Cats' top offensive weapon.
Conventional wisdom says Kentucky has home-court advantage and that Florida is now a sitting target with that No. 1 ranking. But the Gators have proven they can win on the road with wins at Maryland, Mississippi State, Florida State and Miami. They also have more weapons at their disposal and are bound to go on a tear from outside at some point. The pick: Florida 83, Kentucky 78
CNNSI.com’s Stewart Mandel breaks down this week’s big game.
Keith Bogans
Matt Walsh
