Posted: Monday February 10, 2003 2:35 PM
Updated: Monday February 10, 2003 2:55 PM
SI.com's Stewart Mandel gives the lowdown on who's in and who's out.
A.J. Moye and Indiana have sunk into bubble status. AP
Yep, you can hear it in the air. The annual sound signifying the approach of the NCAA tournament: the pop! of bubbles bursting.
There's nothing more nerve-wracking than sweating Selection Sunday -- or the five weeks preceding it -- and it doesn't make it any easier knowing you put yourself in this predicament.
I'm talking about you, Indiana, loser of five straight when you previously seemed like a mortal lock. Or you, Alabama, once the nation's No. 1 team, now loser of seven of your last 11.
While those may be the recent entrants to this year's bubble soiree, others have been treading the line all along. For this, the first of five Bubble Watch editions, the teams with the most precarious NCAA tournament cases -- at least of those with semi-realistic chances, are Tennessee, N.C. State, Texas Tech, Villanova, Wyoming, Colorado, Minnesota, DePaul, Georgia Tech and UNLV.
Read on to see who made it past this committee.
Seeding the 65
No.
East
Midwest
South
West
1
Kentucky
Louisville
Florida
Arizona
2
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Texas
Oklahoma St.
3
Kansas
Pittsburgh
Duke
Marquette
4
Wake Forest
Purdue
Syracuse
Illinois
5
California
Xavier
Missouri
Georgia
6
Dayton
Auburn
Stanford
Maryland
7
Creighton
Utah
Wisconsin
Mississippi St.
8
Cincinnati
Arizona St.
St. Joe's
BYU
9
Indiana
Alabama
Oregon
UConn
10
Kent St.
Virginia
Tennessee
Michigan St.
11
N.C. State
Butler
Memphis
Villanova
12
Wyoming
Gonzaga
Fresno St.
Colorado
13
Manhattan
C. of Charleston
NC-Wilmington
Weber St.
14
Valparaiso
Troy St.
La.-Lafayette
Utah St.
15
Boston
Holy Cross
Wagner
Brown
16
S.C. State/ Charleston So.
Texas Southern
Morehead St.
Sam Houston
Compiled as if Selection Sunday was Feb. 9. Teams are not matched to locations.
Virginia (14-7)
N.C. State (12-7)
Clemson (12-7)
Georgia Tech (12-8)
If Selection Sunday were today: 5 Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland, Virginia, N.C. State N.C. State is hanging on by a very thin thread, while Virginia only played itself into contention this past week. Georgia Tech needs to start winning on the road to have a chance, while Clemson, at 2-7 in-conference, has almost no chance.
Atlantic 10
Locks
On Bubble
Xavier (17-4)
Dayton (16-4)
St. Joe's (17-3)
Richmond (12-8)
If Selection Sunday were today: 3 Xavier, Dayton, St. Joe's This one's pretty clear-cut, unless Richmond improves substantially from its current No. 71 RPI spot or one of the other three collapse completely.
Connecticut (14-5)
Villanova (13-8)
West Virginia (12-8)
St. John's (11-8)
If Selection Sunday were today: 5 Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Connecticut, Villanova The slumping Huskies slide by for now but need to pick it up in coming weeks. Villanova is only 43rd in the RPI but an impressive 6-2 in the Big East.
Big Ten
Locks
On Bubble
Illinois (16-4)
Wisconsin (16-5)
Purdue (15-5)
Indiana (14-8)
Minnesota (13-7)
Michigan State (13-8)
Iowa (12-7)
If Selection Sunday were today: 5 Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State Indiana is at rock bottom with a five-game losing streak but has enough quality wins to slide by -- for now. Minnesota just misses the cut due to a 1-5 road record and 4-6 mark against Top 100 teams.
If Selection Sunday were today: 6 Oklahoma State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Colorado Colorado has played itself over the hump with recent wins over highly ranked Kansas and Texas, while Bob Knight's Red Raiders have played themselves out with a 3-5 start to league play.
Conference USA
Locks
On Bubble
Louisville (18-1)
Marquette (17-3)
Memphis (14-5)
Cincinnati (13-6)
DePaul (12-7)
UAB (11-7)
If Selection Sunday were today: 4 Louisville, Marquette, Cincinnati, Memphis Despite their recent struggles, the Bearcats are still up at No. 25 in the RPI and could soon move into lock status. Memphis is only 46th but has several big wins. DePaul's 1-6 road record isn't helping.
Mountain West
Locks
On Bubble
Utah (17-4)
BYU (16-5)
Wyoming (15-5)
UNLV (13-7)
Colorado State (12-7)
If Selection Sunday were today: 3 Utah, BYU, Wyoming The Cougars and Utes are ranked similarly high (15th and 21st) but it's Utah that's had several big wins -- Arizona State, Alabama and at BYU. Wyoming, at 59th, is our last team in this week.
Pac-10
Locks
On Bubble
Arizona (18-2)
Stanford (17-6)
California (16-4)
Oregon (16-6)
Arizona State (14-7)
If Selection Sunday were today: 5 Arizona, Stanford, California, Oregon, Arizona State It's hard to imagine the Ducks not getting in, what with wins over Kansas and Stanford. ASU's case is not as clear-cut, but the Devils do sit at 7-4 in conference and 29th in the RPI.
Alabama (13-6)
Tennessee (13-6)
LSU (13-8)
Ole Miss (12-8)
If Selection Sunday were today: 7 Florida, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee The Crimson Tide, once No. 1 in the country, are barely hanging on at 3-6 in the conference, while LSU, the team that once beat Arizona, has almost no shot at 2-7 and 61st. The Vols have played themselves in, for now, with wins over Auburn and Georgia.
A.J. Moye and Indiana have sunk into bubble status.
