SI.com's Stewart Mandel gives the lowdown on who's in and who's out.
Freshman Matt Walsh has Florida in shape for a No. 1 NCAA seed. AP
Barring an utter collapse by either, Arizona and Kentucky have locked up two of the four NCAA No. 1 seeds. The other two are up for grabs, but there’s a definite pecking order:
Florida (24-4) : The Gators could punch their ticket this week, with games against both Georgia and Kentucky. A split, plus a decent showing in the SEC tournament, would probably be enough considering their season as a whole.
Oklahoma (20-5), Texas (20-5): The Sooners and Longhorns have nearly identical top five rankings in the polls and RPI. Give Texas the edge right now, though the 'Horns still have go to Norman, site of the nation’s longest home winning streak, Saturday.
Marquette (22-4) : Fans of the six “power” conferences may cringe, but the Golden Eaqles have as impressive a resume as any remaining contender, especially following their huge road comeback at Louisville last week.
Kansas (20-6) : The Jayhawks trail Texas and Oklahoma in the rankings but lead them both by a game in the Big 12 standings. A league championship followed by a tournament championship would be hard for the committee to overlook.
Wake Forest (21-4) : An ACC team has claimed at least one No. 1 seed each of the past six seasons, and the Demon Deacons currently lead the league. A weak non-conference schedule may hold them back, though.
Seeding the 65
No.
East
Midwest
South
West
1
Kentucky
Texas
Florida
Arizona
2
Wake Forest
Marquette
Oklahoma
Kansas
3
Syracuse
Xavier
Duke
Notre Dame
4
Louisville
Illinois
Maryland
Pittsburgh
5
Oklahoma State
Georgia
Stanford
Utah
6
Missouri
Creighton
Memphis
Wisconsin
7
California
Connecticut
Dayton
Mississippi St.
8
Oregon
Cincinnati
BYU
St. Joe’s
9
Indiana
Seton Hall
Purdue
Michigan St.
10
Minnesota
Arizona State
Alabama
Gonzaga
11
Tennessee
Colorado
Butler
Boston College
12
Weber State
Southern Illinois
Texas Tech
C. Michigan
13
Manhattan
Penn
W. Kentucky
Fresno State
14
Holy Cross
Valparaiso
UNC Wilmington
C. of Charleston
15
Wagner
Troy State
Sam Houston
Austin Peay
16
S.C. State/ Miss. Valley St.
Winthrop
Boston
UC Santa Barbara
Compiled as if Selection Sunday was March 2. Teams are not matched to locations.
If Selection Sunday were today: 3 Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland For a while there Sunday night, it looked like the ACC would get its fourth team after all, but then Maryland came back on N.C. State. It’s starting to look pretty hopeless.
Atlantic 10
Locks
On Bubble
Xavier (22-4)
St. Joe's (21-4)
Dayton (21-5)
Rhode Island (16-10)
If Selection Sunday were today: 3 Xavier, Dayton, St. Joe's Nothing new to report, everyone just keeps winning.
Boston College (16-9)
Seton Hall (16-9)
Villanova (15-12)
If Selection Sunday were today: 6 Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Connecticut, Boston College, Seton Hall Seton Hall’s winning streak is at nine, and its league record is up to 10-4, putting the Pirates close to lock status. BC, even at 9-5, is not as clear due to few big wins. Villanova may have sealed its fate with an 88-63 loss at Virginia Tech.
Big Ten
Locks
On Bubble
Wisconsin (21-6)
Illinois (20-5)
Purdue (17-9)
Indiana (17-10)
Minnesota (16-9)
Michigan State (16-11)
If Selection Sunday were today: 6 Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan State Purdue has played itself into dangerous territory with five losses in seven games, while Michigan State helped itself tremendously last week with wins over the Boilers and Minnesota. Indiana should be OK as long as it finishes .500 in the conference, which, with a game at Penn State remaining, should happen.
If Selection Sunday were today: 7 Oklahoma State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Colorado, Texas Tech At 6-8 in the Big 12, Texas Tech remains in a precarious spot, but the Red Raiders earned the last at-large berth in the field this week with a big win at Oklahoma State. Don’t expect the committee to do anything special with the Oklahoma clock game, though.
Conference USA
Locks
On Bubble
Marquette (22-4)
Louisville (20-5)
Memphis (20-5)
Cincinnati (16-9)
UAB (16-9)
DePaul (14-11)
If Selection Sunday were today: 4 Louisville, Marquette, Cincinnati, Memphis The Bearcats will probably finish just 9-7 in the conference but remain high enough in the RPI to feel relatively safe. DePaul’s already slim hopes became almost none following a three-game losing streak.
Missouri Valley
Locks
On Bubble
Creighton (25-4)
Southern Illinois (21-5)
If Selection Sunday were today: 2 Creighton, Southern Illinois Following their 70-62 victory over Creighton, the Salukis sit alone in first place and have jumped to 39th in the RPI. They’re by no means safe for an at-large, though, like Creighton would be if it didn’t win the MVC tournament.
Mountain West
Locks
On Bubble
Utah (21-5)
Wyoming (19-7)
BYU (19-7)
UNLV (18-8)
San Diego State (15-10)
If Selection Sunday were today: 2 Utah, BYU While Wyoming is likely on the outside looking in, the door is open for UNLV if it can sweep Wyoming and San Diego State this week. The Aztecs are also making a late push but probably need to win the league tournament.
Pac-10
Locks
On Bubble
Arizona (23-2)
Stanford (22-7)
California (20-6)
Oregon (20-7)
Arizona State (17-10)
If Selection Sunday were today: 5 Arizona, Stanford, California, Oregon, Arizona State The Sun Devils have stumbled to three straight losses, albeit against the league’s top three teams. They should be all right, though, if they beat Oregon or Oregon State at home this week and win one Pac-10 tournament game.
SEC
Locks
On Bubble
Kentucky (24-3)
Florida (24-4)
Mississippi State (18-7)
Georgia (17-8)
If Selection Sunday were today: 6 Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama What a strange week. LSU is making a late surge, but at the expense of Auburn (seven losses in 10 games) and Tennessee (four straight losses). Of the three, only Tennessee makes it this week, its recent wins over Georgia and Florida still holding weight.
Freshman Matt Walsh has Florida in shape for a No. 1 NCAA seed.
