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 Awards, predictions and what's next
Posted: Monday May 10, 1999 01:01 PM
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Before we get started on the playoffs, here's a look at the awards ballot I sent into the league office a few days ago: MVP: Allen Iverson, Sixers. I know, I know, Karl Malone, Tim Duncan and Alonzo Mourning all led their teams to better records, but nobody lifted his club more than Iverson. As good a coach as Larry Brown is, without The Answer, the Sixers are the Denver Nuggets. Rookie of the Year: Vince Carter, Raptors. Any arguments? Coach of the Year: Mike Dunleavy, Blazers. Everybody says the Blazers have so much talent. What they really have is a lot of good players -- but no star -- who have never been big winners before this year. Dunleavy did a great job of molding them into a conference power. This was a crowded field, with Pat Riley, Chuck Daly, Gregg Popovich, Jerry Sloan and Paul Silas all deserving consideration. Defensive Player of the Year: Alonzo Mourning, Heat. Great shot-blocking that anchored the Heat defense, which had to be better than ever without two starters most of the year. Sixth Man: Darrell Armstrong, Orlando. He moved into the starting lineup near the end of the year, but until than he was exactly what a sixth man is supposed to be, an energizer on both ends of the floor. Most Improved: Armstrong, again. I didn't want to give two awards to one player, but then I thought, why not? Armstrong deserves it. He was a good player before, but he was the Magic's leading fourth-quarter scorer this season. You could make the case that he was Orlando's MVP this year. All-NBA First Team : Tim Duncan, Karl Malone, Alonzo Mourning, Jason Kidd, Allen Iverson. Second Team: Kevin Garnett, Shawn Kemp, Shaquille O'Neal, Gary Payton, Tim Hardaway. Third Team: Antonio McDyess, Chris Webber, Dikembe Mutombo, Stephon Marbury, Steve Smith. First-round playoff predictions: Here's a quick rundown of my first-round predictions as of Saturday morning, with explanations only where it isn't obvious: West San Antonio over Minnesota in 3 Portland over Phoenix in 4 Utah over Sacramento in 4 Houston over Lakers in 5 -- Don't be fooled by the little surge the Lakers had at the end of the season. They still don't play hard-nosed defense consistently enough to last long. East Miami over New York in 5 -- They'll split on each other's home court, but Tim Hardaway will be the difference in Game 5 as the Knick point guards just aren't close to being in his class. The Heat won't let another Game 5 at home get away against New York. Indiana over Milwaukee in 3 -- This small-market series will be over before most of the country even knows it's going on. Philadelphia over Orlando in 4 -- I just don't believe in the Magic. Philly plays great defense and even though he hasn't had much chance to prove it yet, I suspect Allen Iverson is a big-game player. Atlanta over Detroit in 5 -- Very evenly matched teams. It will probably turn on how well the Hawks play team defense. They'll double Grant Hill, and if they rotate well enough to take away the other shooters when Hill passes out of the double-team, Atlanta will win. And now to the Mailbag:
For the teams that didn't make the playoffs, what kind of coaching
moves do you expect in the next few weeks? Thanks! I'm not sure Mike D'Antoni is going to survive in Denver. He didn't exactly distinguish himself this year, and the new ownership there may very well put pressure on GM Dan Issel to bring in more of an NBA name. Some of the same names you've been hearing in connection with the Washington job -- Doc Rivers, Gar Heard -- will come up, but don't be surprised if Issel ends up taking the job himself for at least a year. The Wizards may turn to Paul Silas if Silas doesn't get a lucrative enough offer to stay in Charlotte. In fact, Silas, after being passed over and over for years, has become a hot commodity after doing such a good job with the Hornets. Both Brian Hill in Vancouver and Paul Westphal in Seattle are on shaky ground, and Silas would be on the short list in both those places, especially in Seattle, where Gary Payton wanted him to get the job instead of Westphal last year. Payton's not happy, and Westphal may have to be sacrificed to calm him down. And of course Phil Jackson is lurking out there, ready to return. The betting right now is that he'll go to New Jersey, partly because Lakers GM Jerry West doesn't want to share his power base with someone that high-profile. Jackson's agent says the silence from L.A. has been deafening.
Phil, which of the playoff matchups is the most intriguing to you?
There are several good pairings: Miami-New York is the best rivalry in the league and it should be brutal, and I think the Sixers have a good chance to upset Orlando. But the most interesting first-round series is probably the Lakers and Rockets, because one of those franchises is going to have paid big bucks just to go one-round-and-out. If the Lakers go down, they're going to have to address the ego issue between Shaq, Kobe and Glen Rice during the offseason, and make no mistake, it is an issue. If the Rockets go down, they're going to have to take a look at revamping their offense to take better advantage of Scottie Pippen, which might not make Charles Barkley and Hakeem Olajuwon too thrilled. The fallout from this series could be more interesting than the games themselves. I'm picking Houston in five, but I don't feel that confident about it. This one could go either way.
In your column on
5/5/99, you state that Orlando is likely to exit the playoffs early
because they rely heavily on their rookies. However, in that same column
you predict that Houston is going to get hot, even though both their
starting guards are rookies. In addition, you call Sacramento a team to
watch, even though one of their two go-to guys is a rookie. Can you
explain this apparent contradiction? You've got an eagle eye, Darren. Let me try to explain. I said that Orlando is in trouble not just because of their rookies, but because of their internal squabbling and Ike Austin being a bust. As for Houston, I'm just saying I think they'll squeeze past an underachieving Lakers team, nothing more. Same with Sacramento. I think they're a sleeper because they won't go down easily in the first round. They may lose to the Jazz in three or four, but they'll probably make Utah sweat a lot more than you'd expect in the first round. So, I'm not saying that any of the three teams with rookies in key roles are going to be around for a long time.
Phil, I'd like to know how come Allen Iverson didn't get the attention
he deserved as far as the MVP award is concerned. The Sixers -- after
being doormats for so long -- are finally in the playoffs thanks in large
part to Iverson. Everyone forgets that before Tim Duncan came along, the
Spurs were already playoff contenders. Without The Answer, you can bet Pat
Croce wouldn't be the live-wire that he is. As I mentioned earlier, Iverson got my MVP vote, although I can't argue with anyone who went for Duncan, Malone or Mourning. From talking to some of my fellow voters, I think Allen's on-again-off-again feud with Larry Brown cost him votes. There are people who think that the Answer creates off-the-court distractions, and they say you can't give the MVP to a player like that. But I think Iverson won a lot of games for Philly, and you can't point to any games he cost them because of his problems with Brown. If you limit your judgment to what happened on the court, I don't think any of the other candidates had to carry their teams to the extent that Iverson did.
I wanted to get your opinion on Joe Dumars retiring at the
end of the season. The best thing I can say about Joe Dumars is that he's a normal person. That might not seem like much, but in the world of sports these days, it's high praise. It didn't matter who you were -- whether you were David Stern or a ballboy -- Joe treated you with dignity and respect. I've been around a lot of star athletes, and even some of the friendliest ones give you the impression that they're almost congratulating themselves for being nice to you. Joe wasn't like that. He acted like a regular person who just happened to play basketball for a living. He wasn't different in front of the TV cameras than he was when no one was looking. Joe Dumars is the kind of guy you'd want to invite over for dinner. And you know what? He might even come. Everyone in the league, and I mean everyone, is going to miss him.
What's up, Phil? I was wondering why hasn't anyone managed to coax Kevin Johnson out of his
semi-retirement? Being a die-hard Knicks fan, I was hoping at some point
we would try and make him an offer. In my opinion he would be the point
(other than Stephon Marbury) who could break down the defenses for us.
When it comes right down to it, I think KJ just lost the fire in his belly. Milwaukee took a half-hearted shot at trying to lure him out of retirement for the playoffs, but neither he nor the Bucks were really that interested. He was looking for the perfect situation, and there's no such thing. I'm not sure he would have made a huge difference for the Knicks or anyone else at this stage of the year, but almost anyone would be an improvement over the New York point guards. The Knicks should see if Walt Frazier's willing to put down the radio microphone and suit up again. He's in his 50s, but he'd probably be an upgrade over Chris Childs and Charlie Ward.
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