NBA FINALS BREAKDOWN
SI's Marty Burns examines the Nets-Lakers series position-by-position and gives his prediction on which team will win the NBA championship.
		Nets (11-5) vs. Lakers (11-4) The teams tied in the season series 1-1 Complete Head-to-Head Stats

CENTERS
Nets Todd MacCulloch has size (7-foot, 280) and good hands for a big man, but he has virtually no low-post game. MacCulloch’s job will be to bang as much as the refs allow, and run the floor to get Shaq huffing and puffing. MacCulloch does have some experience guarding Shaq from last year’s Finals (with the Sixers), but he lacks Vlade Divac’s cleverness and flopping prowess, and will probably run into foul trouble early. Look for the Nets to go with a three-headed monster of MacCulloch, Aaron Williams and rookie 7-footer Jason Collins, using fouls liberally to keep Shaq out of rhythm. They also might resort to a zone defense, especially if the Lakers continue their recent struggles from 3-point range. Lakers Despite a sore big toe that has hampered his mobility, Shaquille O’Neal is still the game’s most dominant player. Lately he’s even been hitting his free throws. He should have no problem against the Nets, against whom he scored 40 points in his one appearance during the season (he sat out the other with an injury). New Jersey will try to confuse him, but Shaq is a smart player who generally stays out of foul trouble, passes well out of double teams and doesn’t get easily rattled. On defense, he won’t have to worry much about guarding the Nets’ centers, so he will be free to stay home and patrol the paint. With Shaq behind them to clean up their mistakes, the Lakers will be able to extend their defense.
Edge: Lakers

FORWARDS
Nets Kenyon Martin and Keith Van Horn came of age for the Nets against the Celtics in the conference finals. At 6-foot-9 and 6-foot-10, respectively, they have the size to cause L.A. problems, particularly in swarming Shaq, but they must stay alert and ready to close out quickly on the Lakers’ perimeter shooters. They also must provide an occasional low-post presence, knock down their outside shots, and rebound the ball on the defensive end to ignite the fast break. Martin, known for his volatile temper, can’t lose his cool if the calls don't go his way. Van Horn, meanwhile, must avoid his tendency to disappear for extended stretches. If the Nets don’t win this matchup, they have no chance. Lakers Though neither are big scorers, Robert Horry and Rick Fox are exceptional role players who hit big shots, defend, rebound and generally make the right play most of the time. At 6-foot-10, Horry has the length to defend Martin in the post and the 3-point shooting ability to make him pay for sagging on Shaq. He’s also one of the great clutch shot-makers in playoff history, as the Kings learned. Fox, meanwhile, is a savvy defender who will crowd Van Horn on the perimeter and force him to put the ball on the floor. Horry and Fox are excellent passers, adept at finding Shaq in the right spots, but they will need to hit their outside shots as well.
Edge: Even

GUARDS
Nets What more can be said about Jason Kidd? He has done it all this postseason, orchestrating the Nets' attack and hitting clutch shots while refusing to let his team lose. Against the Lakers, he could prove to be a nightmare. He has the quickness to get in the lane and set up his teammates for easy shots, but he’s also a tremendous rebounder and defender adept at sneaking in to steal balls and sliding over to take charges. He must push the ball at every opportunity, forcing Shaq to run and preventing L.A. from setting its defense. The Lakers will probably leave Kidd open a lot and dare him to beat them from outside, so he also must knock down shots. Kerry Kittles did a good job on Paul Pierce in the last series, but he won’t get as much help on Bryant. Lakers Kobe Bryant is the NBA’s best shooting guard, a two-way standout capable of taking over a game. After facing down three of the league’s top man-to-man defenders (Portland’s Ruben Patterson, San Antonio’s Bruce Bowen and Sacramento’s Doug Christie) already during these playoffs, he won’t be slowed by Kittles. His job will be to initiate L.A.’s offense, do all the little things during the game, then go for the kill in the fourth quarter. With Shaq expected to carry the load offensively, Bryant also will be free to focus on defense. Look for him to guard Kidd on occasion, just like he did Mike Bibby in the Kings series. Derek Fisher is coming off a rough series in which he shot poorly and had trouble containing Bibby. He must do a better job against the taller, stronger Kidd -– or Bryant is going to have to expend too much energy helping out.
Edge: Even

BENCHES
Nets Williams, Collins, Lucius Harris and Richard Jefferson don’t get a lot of publicity, but they form one of the NBA’s top benches. The 6-foot-9 Williams is an athletic big man who can run the floor and hit the outside shot. He could be a key factor, helping pull Shaq outside the lane on defense. Harris, a dangerous outside shooter, provides an insurance policy in case Kittles is having an off night. Jefferson, a rookie, gives energy and aggressiveness with his hard-nosed defense and willingness to take the ball to the hole fearlessly. He might even draw some time on Bryant, if Kittles struggles to contain the Lakers superstar. Lakers The Lakers’ bench, solid all season, did not play particularly well against the Kings. Power forward Samaki Walker, a starter most of the year, was ineffective. Point guard Lindsey Hunter, normally a marksman, couldn’t seem to hit a 3-pointer. Devean George provided energy and hustle, but shot bricks. Only veteran guard Brian Shaw performed up to his ability. Look for Shaw to play a key role against the Nets as well. At 6-foot-6, 200 pounds, he has the strength to defend Kidd for key stretches, and his ability to run the offense and hit big shots have been critical during the past few years. Mark Madsen and Slava Medvedenko could see more action in this series, especially if New Jersey’s Williams becomes a matchup problem.
Edge: Nets

COACHES
Nets Byron Scott did one of the best coaching jobs in the league during the season, helping the Nets improve from 26 to 52 wins en route to their first Eastern Conference title. Though only in his second year, he has shown a deft touch with his team. The former Lakers star, who won three titles during the Showtime days, has done an especially effective job instilling an us-against-the-world mentality. He will use his team’s underdog status in the Finals as a source of motivation for his players. Lakers Phil Jackson’s record speaks for itself: Eight NBA titles in eight Finals appearances. A record 23 straight playoff series victories. A career postseason record of 152-54 (.738), tops in NBA history. Another title this season would be Jackson’s ninth overall, tying him with Red Auerbach for most all-time, and give him 156 postseason victories, surpassing Pat Riley’s mark. Say what you want about the talent he’s had to work with, but Jackson always has his team prepared.
Edge: Lakers

INTANGIBLES
Nets The Nets truly believe they are a team of destiny. With few observers giving them much chance to dethrone the Lakers, they have ample motivation to silence the critics. Although they won’t have home-court advantage, they were 33-8 at Continental Airlines Arena during the regular season and their long-suffering fans will be fired up for Games 3 through 5. New Jersey has no Finals experience, a major drawback, but they do have a stout defense and a leader in Kidd who is on a mission. Those two factors, along with a little L.A. overconfidence, might be enough for them to bag two wins. Lakers After winning back-to-back championships, the Lakers know how to handle Finals pressure. They also should be confident, having overcome a 3-2 deficit to beat the Kings in the Western Conference finals. However, it remains to be seen how much of a letdown they might have after such an emotional series. The Lakers will be helped by starting the series at Staples Center, where they were 34-7 during the regular season. Also, L.A. should benefit from having just played the Kings, a team that runs an offense similar to New Jersey’s pass-and-cut "Princeton offense."
Edge: Lakers

X-FACTOR
Nets Aaron Williams. The lefty from Xavier could become a matchup problem for the Lakers if he can use his low center of gravity to defend Shaq while hitting outside shots at the other end. Look for him to run a lot of screen-and-rolls with Kidd, luring Shaq out of the paint. His energy and ability to scrum for rebounds and loose balls will be needed, too, as the Nets try to put the Lakers on their heels. Lakers Lindsey Hunter. The veteran sharpshooter shot terribly against the Kings in the last series, but has the potential to break out at any time. With Kidd and other Nets guards paying so much attention to help defense on Kobe, Hunter should get plenty of open looks in this series. The way the rest of the Lakers’ role players have been shooting the ball lately, he might have to knock them down for his team to have a chance.
Edge: Nets

PREDICTION: Lakers in 6