Drafting a plan

NBA prospects fall into clear categories

By Stewart Mandel, SI.com

One random drawing Thursday will forever alter the course of 13 NBA franchises.

Or at least the three lucky ones.

The league's annual draft lottery carries unusually high stakes this year. Not since the Spurs landed Tim Duncan in 1997 has there been one player -- much less three -- as coveted as this year's trio of LeBron James, Darko Milicic and Carmelo Anthony.

Simply put, one (James) is the most celebrated high school player in history, another (Milicic) is the most coveted European prospect in history and the third (Anthony) is a collegian coming off the most impressive NCAA tournament performance ever by a freshman.

If you're the Denver Nuggets, Cleveland Cavaliers or Toronto Raptors -- the three teams with the most ping-pong balls in the hopper Thursday -- you could soon be landing a cornerstone of your franchise's future.

Or another team could steal your spot, which in this draft would be devastating.

"Most people feel after those three that it's a fairly significant drop off," said NBA draft analyst Chris Monter, publisher of Monter Draft News, "which is bad if you're a Denver or Cleveland fan, knowing their luck."

How thin is this draft after the big three? Georgia Tech's Chris Bosh, after just one, largely uneventful college season, could be the fourth player taken. Russian giant Pavel Podkolzin couldn't make his team's playoff roster yet will likely be a lottery pick. And there could be as few as six American college players among the first 13 picks.

"There's a lot of talented and athletic players that aren't really ready, but teams are forced to take them because there isn't anyone else out there," said Monter.

SI.com surveyed several NBA talent evaluators to compile this composite sketch of the prospects most likely to land among the 13 lottery picks.

Stars
LeBron James Tom Pidgeon/Getty Images LeBron James 6-8, 240, PG, Akron, Ohio (HS) He's quite simply one of a kind, the best high school player in a generation. Of all the things LeBron does -- and he does a lot of them -- scouts are most enamored of his remarkable court vision and passing skills. Many teams are eyeing him as a Magic Johnson-style point guard, with the strength to rebound against forwards and the explosiveness to take a smaller guard off the dribble. He could wind up playing any of three positions. The only question mark is his outside shooting, considered streaky at best.
Darko Milicic AP Darko Milicic 7-0, 245, PF, Yugoslavia Nearly everyone who's seen Milicic in person has come away impressed, some even preaching he should go ahead of LeBron. Only 17, he's already spent two years playing against accomplished veterans in Yugoslavia's highest pro league. He's a 7-footer with huge hands who can shoot from outside, much like Dirk Nowitzki or Pau Gasol. But unlike them, he's also a bruiser with a mean streak. "Offensively, his perimeter skills are similar to Raef LaFrentz," said one scout, "but he's much tougher inside."
Carmelo Anthony Andy Lyons/Getty Images Carmelo Anthony 6-8, 220, SF, Syracuse (Fr.) The star of Syracuse's run to the national championship, Anthony looked like a man against boys as a college freshman. He runs the floor like a gazelle, equally capable of spotting up over a defender or slicing to the hoop. He's an excellent rebounder and solid ball handler, and when defenses collapse on him, he has the court sense and passing ability to find the open man. If 'Melo is a tad less coveted than LeBron or Darko, it's because of his lanky body, and because he's projected strictly as a small forward.

Starters
Chris Bosh Craig Jones/Getty Images Chris Bosh 6-10, 210, PF, Georgia Tech (Fr.) With Bosh, it's all about the upside. His tall frame and silky-smooth game are very much reminiscent of a Kevin Garnett, but the ACC's rookie of the year needs to add some serious bulk if he hopes to bang with a Karl Malone. Bosh does have an impressive jump shot, making a staggering 47.8 percent of his 3-pointers, he can pass and he's a tenacious defender, leading the ACC in blocks (2.2 per game).
T.J. Ford Brian Bahr/Getty Images T.J. Ford 5-10, 165, PG, Texas (So.) In leading the Longhorns to the Final Four, Ford was college's most adept floor leader in years. "He changes the game," said one scout. His ball handling, quickness and defensive skills should translate well, but there's concern about his height and poor outside shooting (26.5 percent 3-pointers). He got a lot of his points at the free throw line, something he might not be able to do against NBA defenders.
Chris Kaman Jeff Gross/Getty Images Chris Kaman 7-0, 255, C, Central Michigan (Jr.) No prospect has risen higher in the past few months than Kaman, who went from part-time starter as a sophomore to averaging 22.4 points, 12.0 rebounds and 3.2 blocks as a junior. He's more athletic than the typical 7-footer, able to run the floor and change hands, with a good assortment of offensive moves. Scouts love his footwork, considered rare for his age. The only negative is that he's still very raw.
Kirk Hinrich Elsa/Getty Images Kirk Hinrich 6-3, 190, PG, Kansas (Sr.) "My favorite player in the draft," said one scout. "He's going to be a very good pro," said another. Capable of playing either guard position, the two-time Final Four participant is a proven winner who's fast and deceptively athletic, with all the instincts to run a pro offense. He's a good shooter, but not a great one, and there's some concern about his ability to D up a slashing point guard like Stephon Marbury.
Dwyane Wade Elsa/Getty Images Dwyane Wade 6-4, 210, SG, Marquette (Jr.) The common refrain heard when discussing Wade: winner. "He just does whatever it takes," said one scout. A versatile guard who can play inside or out, Wade is a tremendous athlete who can get to the basket, pass and defend. His shot is not great but it's improving. One concern is that he doesn't have a natural position -- lacking point guard skills, small for a two-guard -- but others his size have fared just fine.

Contributors
Anderson Varejao 6-10, 230, PF, Brazil The 20-year old played professionally this season for Euroleague champion FC Barcelona, and while the general consensus is that he's a top 10 pick, there's a great disparity in opinion among scouts about his potential. Some see him as a superb athlete who can rebound and block shots. Others say he's too thin, can't run and lacks distinguishable offensive skills. He's still got a lot to learn about the game.
Mickael Pietrus 6-6, 200, SG, France The name thrown out most frequently when comparing this 21-year-old is Desmond Mason. Pietrus is a scorer who gets to the basket. He's extremely explosive and athletic, he rebounds and he gets after people on defense. There's some doubt as to his actual height, though, and he's a streaky shooter. He'll probably need to improve his range if he hopes to be an NBA shooting guard.
Maciej Lampe 7-0, 240, SF, Poland Another guy who's been hard for scouts to get a read on because he's played against mostly lower-level competition in Spain's second division. Those who have seen him in person, though, swear he's a rare 7-footer who shoots the lights out from the perimeter. His body is already well developed for an 18-year-old but he'll need to put on more muscle before attempting to play NBA power forward.
Mike Sweetney 6-8, 260, PF, Georgetown (Jr.) A polished low-post player, Sweetney was a dominant presence in the Big East, averaging 22.8 points, 10.4 rebounds and 3.2 blocks. A widebody cut out of the Elton Brand mold, he's a tireless worker who wears down defenders and gets to the free-throw line. He can also score facing the basket. The one concern is that at 6-8 he falls into the dreaded "tweener" category, but Brand is the same size.
Pavel Podkolzin 7-4, 300, C, Russia Undoubtedly, some team is going to take a chance on this 18-year-old giant who could just as easily become the next Yao Ming or Frederic Weis. He's a great unknown, having toiled in the obscurity of Siberia before joining an Italian team for whom he plays sparingly. Most scouts have yet to see him in person, but he's believed to have good athleticism. Still very raw, though, and the definition of "project."

On the brink
Luke Ridnour, 6-2, PG, Oregon; Jarvis Hayes, 6-7, SG, Georgia; Leandrinho Barbosa, 6-3, PG, Brazil; Sofoklis Schortsianitis, 6-10, Greece; Nick Collison, 6-9, PF, Kansas; Boris Diaw, 6-9, SF, France; Aleksandar Pavlovic, 6-7, SG, Yugoslavia.

 

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