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Why the Lakers should win: They have too much experience, too much confidence and too much Shaq and Kobe. After knocking them out of the playoffs the last two years, the Lakers don’t fear the Spurs. Shaq showed in the last two games against the T’wolves that he can still dominate. Kobe seemed to be over his sore shoulder. And in what has to bring back nightmares to the Spurs, Derek Fisher knocked down 62 percent of his 3-point attempts. L.A. will let Tim Duncan get his points early, then clamp down on him and see if San Antonio’s unproven youngsters can beat them in the clutch.
Why the Spurs should win: They’re hungrier, bigger up front and more athletic. In Duncan and Tony Parker, they’ve got a combination that can exploit L.A.’s defense against the pick-and-roll. David Robinson, Kevin Willis and Malik Rose give them enough quality big men to defend Shaq -- and foul him if necessary. Stephen Jackson and Emanuel Ginobili can exploit L.A.’s lack of quickness. Meanwhile, Bruce Bowen is an exceptional defender who can make Kobe work for his points. Bowen is also the NBA’s leading 3-point shooter (44.1 percent), so he should get looks against a Lakers defense that ranked last in the league in protecting the arc.
Keep an eye on: Free-throw shooting. While Shaq’s problems at the foul line have been well documented, Tim Duncan also has been known to struggle at the stripe. In fact, the Spurs ranked 26th in the NBA (72.5 percent), one spot behind the Lakers (73.4 percent).
Did you know? Lakers coach Phil Jackson has won an NBA-record 25 straight playoff series, the last 13 with L.A. Under Jackson, the Lakers have won 17 of their past 20 road playoff games.
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| SI.com's Marty Burns: Lakers in 7 |
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