San Antonio vs. Dallas
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Why the Mavs should win: They’ve got better shooters and a riverboat gambler for a head coach. In Dirk Nowitzki, Michael Finley, Steve Nash, Nick Van Exel and Raef LaFrentz, Dallas has the outside guns to shoot over San Antonio’s two 7-footers. Meanwhile, coach Don Nelson will pull out all sorts of odd matchups and strategies to try to confuse the Spurs. One Nellie strategy will be to try to go small, using LaFrentz to lure Tim Duncan away from the basket and open up the lane. On defense, he will mix up the double-teams on Duncan and employ a zone defense with 7-foot-6 Shawn Bradley in the middle. The Mavs can create some matchup problems with the Spurs, who might have trouble keeping David Robinson on the court. Dallas also is the better team at taking care of the ball and shooting free throws. With nothing to lose, the Mavs will be able to play free and easy. Why the Spurs should win: Defense. With Duncan and Robinson in the middle, the Spurs ranked third in the NBA in both points allowed (90.4) and opponents’ field-goal percentage (42.7 percent). San Antonio also has an ace perimeter defender in veteran Bruce Bowen, who will make Finley work for everything he gets. The Spurs can’t match Dallas’ perimeter firepower, but Bowen, Stephen Jackson, Emanuel Ginobili and point guard Tony Parker can hurt a team inside and out. With Duncan expected to dominate down low, they should get a lot of looks both from beyond the arc and on cuts through the lane. They should at least be able to make enough buckets to keep the Mavs from turning it into a track meet. Meanwhile, super sub Malik Rose is an effective counter to make the Mavs pay for going small. With home-court advantage and the confidence gained from their impressive triumph over the Lakers in the last round, the Spurs should roll. Keep an eye on: Rose. The 6-foot-7 forward has burned the Mavs in the past with his energy, rebounding and scoring touch around the basket. With Dallas expected to go with a smaller lineup, he might be called upon to replace Robinson. How well Rose plays could determine whether the Mavs can get away with it. Did you know? This is not the first time the Western Conference finals have been played exclusively in Texas. San Antonio and Houston met in the 1995 conference finals, with the Rockets winning in six games.

SI.com's Marty Burns: Spurs in 6