Why the Nets should win: After getting swept in the Finals a year ago, the Nets are looking for redemption. Jason Kidd, in particular, has been a man on a mission this postseason, leading New Jersey to a 12-2 record, including 10 in a row.
The Nets don’t feature a potent half-court offense, but they defend, rebound and are lethal on the fast break. Kenyon Martin, Richard Jefferson and Jason Collins are hard-nosed players who aren't afraid to mix it up inside. They will gang up on Tim Duncan and force the other Spurs to beat them.
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The real key will be stopping Tony Parker, and Kidd is just the guy to do it. New Jersey will have problems scoring, but if it can bait San Antonio into perimeter shots, there should be plenty of long rebounds to take the other way.
New Jersey’s biggest asset in this series might be its mental toughness. Led by Kidd, the Nets have a mean streak that could rattle the more fragile Spurs.
Why the Spurs should win: The Spurs didn’t win 60 games -- a whopping 11 more than the Nets -- by accident. They have the league’s MVP in Duncan, a stout half-court defense anchored by two 7-footers and a balanced attack with explosive players such as Parker, Malik Rose, Emanuel Ginobili and Stephen Jackson. In Bruce Bowen, they have a defensive ace to contain Kidd in the halfcourt.
Duncan has shown in the postseason that he’s patient enough to pass out of double teams, and the Spurs have enough shooters to make New Jersey pay for such a strategy.
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San Antonio is young at key spots, but the Spurs have shown some mettle by winning Game 6s at Phoenix, L.A. and Dallas during this postseason run. Also, San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich has NBA title experience from the 1999 Spurs and knows how to adjust on the fly.
With the unstoppable Duncan inside and home-court advantage, San Antonio has the pieces to win it all -- as long as it doesn’t miss too many free throws.
Keep an eye on: Parker. When the 21-year-old point guard scores 20 or more points, the Spurs have posted a 25-1 record this season, including 5-0 in the playoffs. Matched up against Kidd, a first-team all-defensive team selection, he will have his hands full. Parker must stay aggressive against Kidd and not get rattled down the stretch. Also, Parker must not let the media hype surrounding Kidd’s pending free agency -- and possible signing in San Antonio -- become a distraction.
Did you know? Only three NBA champions in the past 15 years (the 2000 Lakers and the 1994 and ’95 Rockets) have gone into the Finals without the benefit of at least one sweep in the preliminary rounds. The Spurs lost twice to the Suns, Lakers and Mavs during this postseason run. The Nets are coming off back-to-back sweeps of the Celtics and Pistons.
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