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Once upon a time ... there was a basketball league called the NBA, in which all the rookies made too much money. At least that's what all the veterans thought. "What ever happened," they wondered, "to proving you were worth the dough before you actually got it?" So a rookie salary cap was born, and the new kids on the block were forced to toil for paltry sums, like $8.5 million over three years for the No. 1 pick. But after that they were free, free to make big money and free to change teams if they so desired. Apparently most of them do so desire. The first rookie class shackled by the salary cap will become free agents this summer, and among them then-Denver forward Antonio McDyess (since traded to Phoenix), Golden State forward Joe Smith and Philadelphia guard Jerry Stackhouse had all, as of mid-October, turned down considerable raises in favor of a shot at the open market. So who will live happily ever after? Not, we predict, the general managers, who will be entangled in endless negotiations. And not, we predict, the owners, who will have to pay out bigger contracts. And certainly not, we predict, the people who have to foot the bill for all this madness—the fans. With that said, here are 10 more predictions for the 1997-98 NBA season. And, we hasten to add, these are no fairy tales.
—Jackie MacMullan |
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The Lakers will win the Western Conference.
Though Shaq-bashing is in vogue, understand this: The big fella is a more complete player than he has ever been, and he's hungry to prove his detractors wrong. A supporting cast of power forward Elden Campbell, shooting guard Eddie Jones and point guard Nick Van Exel—if he can put a lid on his self-absorbed pouting—isn't bad. Add veteran free agent Rick Fox, who can play multiple positions and is a bundle of energy on defense, and the Lakers should outlast the aging Jazz to win a ticket to the big dance.
The Mavericks will have a new coach before the All-Star break.
Poor Jim Cleamons. He toils for years and years as a loyal assistant with the Bulls, hoping for his shot at a head coaching job, and when he finally gets his chance, it's in Dallas. What's more, after Cleamons is hired, a new general manager, Don Nelson, is installed who wants to bring in his own people. Nelson has gone out of his way to insist that he has nothing personal against Cleamons, but he has already tried to replace him once (with Garry St. Jean), at the end of last season. Had Mavs owner Ross Perot Jr. not intervened then, Cleamons would have already hit the trail.
Vin Baker will become the most popular athlete in Seattle who doesn't have Jr. at the end of his name.
When he played for the Bucks, Baker cracked the All-Star lineup as a reserve from a small-market club. Now that he's on a topflight team, paired with standout point guard Gary Payton, he is destined to become a big-time star. Baker has both the skills and the personality to win over a city that has grown tired of angry young basketball players complaining about $3.3 million annual salaries (see Shawn Kemp). Unfailingly popular with fans—you know, those people who select the starters for the All-Star Game—Baker will become a fixture at the midseason classic.
This season will be Clyde Drexler's last.
Drexler asked Portland to trade him in 1995 because he wanted a chance at the championship ring that had eluded him with the Blazers. After he was swapped to the Rockets, his dream came true that season. In 1996-97, with another headstrong veteran, Charles Barkley, in the fold, Houston faltered in the postseason. Now the team is a year older, and the window of opportunity is closing for its older players. The 35-year-old Drexler's contract is up in July, and he doesn't need to stick around for the money or the fleeting chance at the ring—he has both. So when Houston is finished this season, Clyde the Glide will decide that he is too.
The Cavaliers will finally average more than 90 points per night—but they will lose more than 50 games.
Coach Mike Fratello may have stolen a few victories by slowing action to a crawl last season (Cleveland averaged just 87.5 points per game), but his Somine style also sent two of his top players—small forward Chris Mills and shooting guard Bobby Phills—scurrying to new destinations, while free agents Rick Fox and forward Brian Grant spurned Cleveland's offers and signed elsewhere for less money. There are indications, though, that Fratello will be taking a more up-tempo approach this season: The Cavs won't waste the talents of new acquisition All-Star forward Shawn Kemp by walking the ball up the floor, and their first-round draft picks, Derek Anderson from Kentucky and Brevin Knight from Stanford, were born to run.
LaPhonso Ellis will emerge as one of the hot free agents of 1998.
It's a wonder that the personable, upbeat Ellis can still smile after his star-crossed career. Since his rookie season of '92-93, the Nuggets forward has had surgery on both knees and last season had another operation to repair the ruptured Achilles tendon in his right foot. He has averaged just 53 games per season, but when he does play, Ellis is a multifaceted gem. Questions remain about his durability, but our crystal ball says this season he's happy, healthy and productive.
Jason Kidd and Antoine Walker will make the All-Star team.
Point guard Kidd will blossom in Phoenix under coach Danny Ainge and alongside veteran Kevin Johnson. Combined, Ainge and Johnson have 24 seasons of NBA backcourt experience to share with Kidd. Meanwhile, in Boston, Walker will come into his own. As a rookie last season, the small forward showed undeniable talent—albeit, at times, unbridled. But now that his former coach at Kentucky, Rick Pitino, is cracking the whip for the Celtics, Walker should become a star. With his speed and agility, he will thrive in Pitino's running game. The only thing holding Walker back is his own team—Boston is so understaffed at power forward, with just 6'10" Andrew DeClercq, that Walker may be forced to play the 4-spot for a spell.
Mitch Richmond will demand to be traded, but Sacramento won't do it.
The Kings veteran is this season's Chris Mullin. Last year Mullin, who had spent his entire 12-year career as a good soldier in Golden State, asked off the Warriors' sinking ship, but his request wasn't granted until July, when Garry St. Jean took over as general manager. Richmond, a five-time All-Star who has spent six seasons in Sacramento, is tired of losing and wants a new contract. Most of all, he wants a new address, but the Kings are planning a new arena, and they need a marquee name to sell tickets. Richmond is their man.
Can you say "lockout"? You will.
It's becoming clear that next summer the NBA will exercise its right to opt out of the current collective bargaining agreement, which is entering the third of its SI years. In the eyes of the commissioner's office, the contract has too many holes, as evidenced by the recent Chris Dudley ruling. (An arbitrator found in favor of Dudley and against the league in September, ruling that Dudley had not circumvented the NBA salary cap by signing with Portland for the minimum amount on Sept. 7. As of mid-September the matter was still under appeal, but if the judgment stands, the Blazers would then trade Dudley to the Knicks, who could re-sign him to a long-term deal next summer according to the rule that a team may sign only its own players to a contract of any size regardless of the cap.) The league is also unhappy with the difficulty some small-market teams such as Minnesota and Denver are having re-signing the players, like Garnett and McDyess, whom they drafted three years ago. After the NBA opts out of the agreement, it will be back to the bargaining table. The last time that happened, in 1995, the league locked out the players for nearly three months.
The Bulls will win the NBA championship, and Michael Jordan will announce, "I'll be back!"
Yes, Chicago looked a tad mortal in June on the way to championship number 5 of the Jordan era, but nobody, including the Lakers, has the firepower to stop this assemblage of professionals. Everyone assumes that Jordan will retire next summer, taking his $33 million annual salary with him, and that the Bulls will gleefully rebuild around a bunch of free agents. But though Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman and coach Phil Jackson will all be gone after this season, sources tell us that Jordan has no interest in hanging it up. What then, Mr. Reinsdorf?