Burning Questions for Selection Sunday
Da'Sean Butler and West Virginia beat Georgetown 60-58 on Saturday to win the Big East tourney title. (AP)
NEW YORK — West Virginia’s coaches trust Da’Sean Butler with every last-second shot in every big game, but they don’t trust him with scissors. As their 6-foot-7 senior star stood on a ladder on Saturday night, contemplating which strand of net to cut as a prize for winning the Big East tournament, assistant coach Erik Martin yelled up to him, “Hey! Don’t cut your finger or something! Then we’ll all be crying.”
Their concern (or mock concern) is understandable. The Mountaineers wouldn’t have made it out of the Big East quarterfinals without Butler, much less won the tournament for the first time in school history. He beat Cincinnati on a last-second, banked-in three in the quarterfinals; beat Notre Dame by scoring 25 of WVU’s 53 points in the semis; and beat Georgetown by banking in a runner with 4.2 seconds left to break a 58-58 tie. Point guard Darryl Bryant grabbed Butler on the floor during the post-game celebration, and yelled to anyone within earshot, “This is the man right here! This is the man!”
Butler is not just the man in West Virginia; he’s the biggest star in the nation so far in March. When Ohio State’s Evan Turner, Butler’s old World University Games teammate and the likely Naismith and Wooden award winner, one-upped Thursday’s Cincinnati buzzer-beater by hitting a longer three to beat Michigan on Friday, he texted Turner to say, I hope you know I’m going to match it the next time I play. And Butler actually went and did it, too. Put the game in his hands, and he always delivers.
The only situation he can’t control this weekend is whether or not the Mountaineers get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament — something they deserve, but may lose out on to Duke. Butler can plead for one, though: “We took care of business every time,” he said on Saturday. “So please let us in for a No. 1 seed. Please.”
Will the committee holed up in an Indianapolis conference room succumb to Butler’s charm while they’re filling out the Field of 65? That’s one of the 10 burning questions on Selection Sunday:
1. West Virginia or Duke for the final No. 1? I asked that to Mountaineers guard Joe Mazzulla on the floor here Saturday night, and he said, “We just beat Georgetown, and Georgetown smacked Duke, so I think we should get a No. 1 seed.”
If only it were that easy. West Virginia has an absurdly better résumé of wins than Duke does, both in and out of conference. But if the Blue Devils beat Georgia Tech in Sunday’s ACC final, does that sweep of ACC titles trump all the peripheral data and make them a No. 1 lock? It shouldn’t. The Big East is so much better than the ACC that Syracuse and West Virginia should both be No. 1s. I can’t guarantee that’ll happen, though.
2. But what about Ohio State as a No. 1? If the Buckeyes win Sunday’s Big Ten tournament final, they merit being in the No. 1 discussion. But here are their issues: The committee has made it clear (in past years) that the Big Ten final ends too late for it to have a major impact on the bracket … and Ohio State also lost, with Evan Turner, in head-to-head competition against West Virginia. I can’t see Ohio State being tabbed for a No. 1 ahead of the Mountaineers, and I can’t see the committee letting two teams leapfrog Duke on the S-Curve. So the Buckeyes’ seed ceiling appears to be a No. 2.
3. What’s the pecking order of No. 2 seeds? This is of major importance, because no one wants to be paired in a region with Kansas. Kentucky is more upset-vulnerable than the Jayhawks, but I don’t think anyone wants to be paired with the Wildcats, either. The most fair situation would be for West Virginia and Duke to get matched in the West, as the Mountaineers’ reward for winning the Big East tourney, and then for Ohio State and Syracuse to get matched in the South, as the Buckeyes’ reward for winning the Big Ten tourney. The Orange earned a No. 1, but they slumped to the finish line, and while starting power forward Arinze Onuaku is expected to play in the NCAA tournament, no one knows if he’ll be back at 100 percent.
That leaves Kansas State paired with Kentucky in the East, since Frank Martin’s club can’t be paired with Kansas — and then the fourth No. 2 matched up with the Jayhawks (if the selection committee is being fair, that is).
4. Who is that fourth No. 2? Coming into the weekend, I would have said Purdue, but now I fear the Robbie Hummel-less Boilers have no shot at that line in the bracket. Georgetown, Villanova, Temple (if it wins the Atlantic 10 tournament on Sunday) and New Mexico are the most logical choices. My strong preference would be the Hoyas: They were within a bucket of winning the Big East tourney, have an RPI of 7, a strength-of-schedule rating of 1, and quality wins over Butler, Duke, Temple, Pittsburgh, Villanova and Syracuse. No one else’s wins come close.
5. How hard will the selection committee come down on Purdue? The Boilermakers had a nice year — they’re 27-5, No. 9 in the RPI, and tied for first in the Big Ten regular season — that would normally warrant a No. 2 seed. But since losing Hummel, they’re not the same team, playing poorly in wins over Penn State and Northwestern, and getting annihilated by Minnesota in Saturday’s conference tournament semifinals. The committee was surely watching that game from Indy and weighing the degree of Purdue’s demotion. Its nightmare scenario would be a No. 4 or 5 seed, and a pairing with a scary mid-major like Murray State in the first round.
Did Demetri McCamey and the Illini make enough of an impression on the committee by taking Ohio State to overtime? (Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
6. Did Illinois really do enough this weekend to make it in the dance as an at-large? The Illini beat Wisconsin and then took Ohio State to overtime in the Big Ten tournament … but with Minnesota and Mississippi State still fighting for automatic bids on Sunday, there isn’t much room on the bubble.
Illinois is one of the weirdest cases for the committee: It lost six of its final eight games, and its RPI (at 72) is terrible. But it has a killer resume of quality wins — Clemson and Wisconsin on the road, Wisconsin again on a neutral floor, and Michigan State and Vanderbilt in Champaign. I’d put the Illini in the field, but I feel like their real chances are 50-50.
7. How scared should Cal be of getting relegated to the NIT? In no other year would a Pac-10 regular-season champ with an RPI of 19 be sweating out Selection Sunday. But the Pac-10 is that bad this season, and Cal is no lock after losing its tourney title game to Washington. No team with a top-20 RPI has ever been excluded from the field, but the Bears have only beaten two NCAA tournament teams all year: Washington at home on Feb. 11, and Murray State at home on Nov. 9. That game against the Racers didn’t seem like a big deal at the time, but without it, Cal wouldn’t have a single, decent out-of-league victory.
When you match Cal up with a bubble team such as Illinois or Florida (which has beaten Florida State, Michigan State and Tennessee), the résumés aren’t even close. We’re going to find out just how much stock the selection committee puts into winning a BCS conference — even if it might have been the worst BCS conference in history.
8. Could Virginia Tech get snubbed again? Over the past three years, the Hokies have been the nation’s most tortured team on Selection Sunday, watching their bubble burst in both 2007 and 2008 despite having 20-plus wins and an above-.500 record in the ACC. They’re in a similar position this time, at 10-6 and third place in the league, but with an RPI of 56 and nary a non-conference win over an NCAA tournament team. Losing to Miami in their first ACC tournament game put them in a precarious situation, and that was before Houston (the C-USA tourney winner) and New Mexico State (the WAC tourney winner) stole spots from the bubble. I’ll feel bad if Virginia Tech gets left out, but I think that’s what’s going to happen.
9. Is Utah State in danger after losing in the WAC title game? UTEP, which is in a similar situation after losing the C-USA final, is on safer footing than the Aggies, but I still say they’re going dancing. They won 17 straight leading up to that loss to New Mexico State, finished 14-2 in the WAC, and beat BYU (a potential four-seed) in December. They’re the class of the WAC, and were good enough to finish second in the Pac-10 this season, so it wouldn’t be wasteful to give them a bid.
10. If Minnesota and Mississippi State both lose on Sunday, and there’s only one spot left in the bracket, which team would you choose? The Gophers, and it’s not even close. Just put the two teams’ marquee wins side-by-side: Minnesota has beaten Butler, Ohio State (with Evan Turner), Wisconsin, Illinois (in Champaign), Michigan State and Purdue. That’s a trio of top-four seeds, and a total of five or six NCAA tournament teams, depending on what you think of the Illini. Mississippi State has beaten Old Dominion, Houston, Florida and Vanderbilt. That’s either three or four NCAA tournament teams, depending on what you think of Florida, and only Vandy is near the top-four-seed range.
The Bulldogs’ only way into the dance is by upsetting Kentucky — something that hasn’t happened to the Wildcats in a non-road setting all season. I bid Jarvis Varnado & Co. good luck with that.
While I agree with most of these, you state that you think Illinois should be in, and that Cal maybe not.. I guarantee you that Cal would have no problem beating Illinois… I don’t know why everyone ( articles I have read) is even weighing whether the Illini will make it in or not.. NO CHANCE, I don’t care about their resume, they are 19-14 that is all I need to know. THEY DO NOT MAKE IT IN… Cal does..
Tony why does Illinois not deserve to be in? Until you mentioned them no-one even knew Cal had a bball team!
It’s crazy that there’s talk of conference expansion when an incredibly mediocre Illinois squad has a chance to get into the tournament’s current 65 team format.
Brackets:
Kansas/Ohio St.
Kentucky/Georgetown
Syracuse/Duke
West Virginia/Kansas St.
Illinois played Ohio State tougher than cal as a Buckeye fan. watching both teams I would put in the Illini. I know it was early, but i definitely have not seen cal getting a lot better and they really beat NO ONE.
Illinois is a basket case of a team this season. I think they should be sweating bullets today. Cal should get in. They won their conference — no matter how bad it was — while the Illini have really struggled down the stretch.
Purdue’s record at this point is actually 27-5, not 24-9. I think your analysis of Purdue’s chances of a 2 or 3 seed is still spot-on, but having three more wins and four less losses than you thought surely warrants calling their year something stronger than “nice” and maybe makes it seem more ridiculous for Purdue to be considered a 4 or 5 seed with that good of a record.
I think West Virginia should get a No. 1 Seed. They have quality wins over top 25 teams and besides, as the announcers said at the end of the game with Georgetown last nite:
“The Butler did it in the Garden with a basketball”.
My Hokies have put together a good record, but I think you’re right about them… Sigh.
Wow, no wonder Purdue is going to get a 4 or 5 seat when you take 3 victory away from them and give them 4 more defeats then they actually had. Their record was 27-5 for the season including the big ten tourney.
If Cal played in Big Ten, they would be at the bottom half… I don’t see them even beating Michigan, Northwestern… maybe even Indiana… what makes Tony think that they can beat Illini???
This Big East Bias is disgusting – anyone that lived in the Northeast as I did had to deal with the disgusting aspect of this, but it is sad to see it hitting big time sportswriters now as well. (Unless Luke lives in the area, in which case these comments are not surprising)
Assuming Duke wins Sunday – a Big if – he is saying a West Virginia team that is on a hot streak (or should I say has a single player that is) deserves a number 1 seed over Duke, which won the regular season and its Tourney. Let the Big East prove how good it is in the NCAAs – most Big East teams played a weak to pathetic non conference schedule (look at S. Hall for a great example of this, year after year), and lean on the ‘amazing Big East’ comments to offset the weak nonconference schedules. Teams like Duke take on other teams out of conference – they dont duck anyway. They lose sometimes, sure, but with Big East teams playing the likes of Saint Peters out of conference and New Jersey Institute of Technology, well, why is it surpising that they will most of these?
The rest of the country is sick of Northeast bias – fortunately, the selection committee is not full of people born and raised only along the i-95 highway.
What quality out-of-conference teams did Cal beat this year? Murray State? Detroit? Jacksonville? Utah Valley? Cal did play Kansas, Ohio State and New Mexico, but not a single win. Only someone who can’t beat a top 50 team would say “I don’t care about (another team’s) resume”. I hope you’re not relying on Cal’s conference record since not a single Pac-10 team is in the top 25. The Pac-10 is lucky to have an automatic bid this year. I don’t know if Illinois deserves a bid, but there’s no way Cal has earned one.
Illinois, (and Minnesota, unless they win the Big Ten Tournament) should be NIT bound. For teams who have already clinched NCAA Tournament bids, the conference tournaments are just warm-ups to the NCAA Tournament….teams like Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan State had very little to play for while for Illinois and Minnesota, it was either win or goodbye from any chance at the NCAA Tournament.
Cal sucks, it’s that simple. The Illini have a better record against tougher opponents. Just because a team is from California isn’t a guarantee that they’re good enough to play in the big dance. It’ll be the Illini (and nope, I’m not from Illinois at all, I’m a Gopher fan, thank you very much – we’d whup Cal easily).
West Vitginia certainly deserves and should get the No.1 seed. Spectacular wins over Cinncinati, Notre Dame and Georgetown in the Big East Tournament together with the playing ability of Da”Sean Butler should make it a no-brainer for the selection committee. Do the right thing today in Indianapolis and give the Mountaineers what they truly deserve.
You guarantee Cal would beat Illinois? LOL – I like how you have it so cut and dried.
Cal would really struggle with the Illini’s drive and kick game. no one in the PAC 10 this year really executes at the level Illinois has for much of the year.
West Virginia certainly deserves and should get the No. 1 seed. Spectacular wins over Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Georgetown in the Big East Tournament together with the playing ability of Da”Sean Butler should make it a no-brainer for the selection committee. Do the right thing today in Indianapolis and give the Mountaineers what they truly deserve.
I would LOVE to see Illinois play – and crush – any team from the Pac-10. The Pac-10 is total garbage this year, I couldn’t believe how bad the basketball was now that I finally got a chance to see a few games.
Cal is a lock. Their RPI speaks for itself. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cal advance to the Sweet 16. That was one outstanding college basketball game Cal and UW played yesterday.
Tony,
The discussion comes from the fact that Illinois played 12 games against the top 25 and has won 5 of those while Cal has only played 2 and has won a total of 0 of those games. Its easy to win games against weaker opponents but should Illinois be punished for a tougher schedule?
Tony: good thing you aren’t on the selection committee. You can’t just eliminate a team automatically because you don’t think their record looks pretty. Compare Illinois to the other teams on the bubble: Florida 21-12. Minnesota 21-12. Georgia Tech 22-11. Mississippi State 23-10. None of these teams have materially better records than Illinois.
For what its worth, I think Cal is underrated and should make the tournament; however, I think Illinois should as well
I think WVU deserves the #1 seed across the board over Duke. I still think that Purdue deserves a #2 seed for their season up until the last couple days. As for Illinois, Cal, and VaTech, I say Cal and Tech in, Illinois out.
Agree with Tony. Cal finished the year very strong; Illinois did not. Cal played a rigorous non-conference schedule, losing to 3 likely #1 seeds. They’re one of the best offensive teams in the country and have a legitimate shot of winning two games no matter which seed they get.
Actually Kansas and Kansas State CAN be in the same region, they just cannot meet until the Regional Finals. Will they be or should they be is another story, but it is possible for that to be the case.
And I love how eveyrone is arguing about Cal/Illinois/Whoever Else. Why waste time arguing over two teams that if they get in will just lose in the first round anyway?
And if we are using the schedule arguement to put Cal in, why not just go ahead and put UConn in? They played three probably #1s (Syracuse, Duke, UK), two potential #2s (West Virginia, Georgetown)…but they didn’t beat many of them. Same with Cal. Playing good teams means nothing if you do not beat them.
Cal is a great case study for why these experts can’t pick the field correctly. Top 20 RPI and conference champion are huge plusses, but poor Top 50 record looks really bad. To understand why Cal needs to get in you have to actually watch the games — which is where the West Coast bias pops in.
Their Top 50 losses were on the road against Kansas, Syracuse, New Mexico and home against Ohio State — all early in the year, with three coming without their best player. When you look at the Pac 10 clearly the top is way down but it’s not like Conference USA or Big Sky where half the conference games are gimmes. Plus if you look at the actual conference games they played they dominated the second half of conference play.
There’s no way you can say Illinois or Florida have a better resume than Cal. I think that to have a good resume, you actually have to win games near the end of the year. Cal did that and the other two did not. Put the teams side by side and it’s pretty obvious.
Luke, I tend to agree with you that WV has earned a one seed over Duke. However, you advance only two real arguments to support the case — that they have more quality wins, and that the Big East is a better conference. You’re right they have more quality wins, and that’s why I agree with you. But as for “the Big East is better,” it is top heavy but it is also filled with bottom feeders like Rutgers and South Florida that WV beat. As for the other argument mentioned in your post — “we beat Gtown and Gtown beat Duke” — you act like that makes sense, leading me to wonder if you think because Northwestern beat Purdue, who beat WV, that Northwestern is better than WV? Further, you cite Gtown’s RPI to support it being a number one seed, while ignoring that Duke has a better RPI than WV (2 vs 4), probably because of those Big East bottom feeders. Again, I think WV deserves the one seed, but I don’t think you’ve made the case for it, and I don’t think it would be unreasonable to give it to Duke. In presenting such weak (and contradictory) arguments for WV you’re not weighing the merits of reasonable arguments, you’re laying the groundwork for popular outrage if Duke gets the 1. Not helpful.
I hope Duke and Kentucky meet and the arena burns to the ground with both coaches still inside.
I don’t think that Illinois or Cal really deserve to go. I’m sorry, but 14 losses (some to bad teams) outweighs five or six good wins. And Cal hasn’t beaten anybody worth mentioning. Yeah, they LOST to 3 possible one seeds. Now, if you’d actually beaten one of them you’d have a case.
All in all, I think both should be in the NIT. But, if it comes down to one or the other, I’d take Cal. I just think it would be sad to have a 14 loss team in the field as an at large.
Oh, and I’m sick of the “eye test” they keep talking about as a reason to take Illinois. If I just went by an “eye test” for this week, Miami FL would be in. They looked as good as any team in the country for a week.
Really, I wish they’d just take William and Mary and let both of these scrubs at home!
How in the world does Duke deserve a #1 seeding, let alone above Syracuse!!!???? West Virgina is head and shoulders above Duke. But Duke always manages to waltz in somehow and with the easiest route to the final four. Selection Committee, you got some ’splaining to do!!!!! Oh, wait, it’s all about the money!
Wow, you realize some 10-15 people have commented on the Illini. That has to mean something, but in the end they wont make it cause of their lack of intensity.
And yes I’m from Illinois
First off, I’m a Pac-10 guy and I feel bad for Illinois. However, I am currently living in SEC territory and am CONSTANTLY getting in arguments over football schedules. Now it is hard to argue that the SEC is not the best conference in college football but each and every SEC team (except Tennessee) plays against 3 of the most garbage non-conference football teams every year. The excuse is that it’s because they have to play each other in conference so they deserve it. I think it’s crap because it is the only division to do this every year. However, I was shut up really quick by someone that said, it’s just BETTER STRATEGY to get into a bowl game, one or two wins can make all the difference. So to Illinois fans that are upset, take a page from SEC football and schedule more cupcakes!