If you're trying to handicap the NBA Rookie of the Year race, the hardest part may be finding worthy candidates.
We're a week into the season, and just like everyone predicted, the top rookies have been .... Gordan Giricek and Pat Burke?!?!?
What is going on here? Where are the impact rookies?
We're seeing the product of two phenomena. First, the NBA draft is getting younger every year. As more players are selected out of high school or after a year of college, they need more time to develop into quality players. The emergence of players like Jermaine O'Neal and Al Harrington of the Pacers after a few years of incubation is a good example.
The second factor is the internationalization of the game. Nearly every foreign player has made major strides in his second season in the league, after figuring out how the game is called and how it differs from European play. While older European imports have been the most game-ready rookies the past few years, they've still needed time to acclimate themselves.
All that makes what's happening this year less remarkable, but the trend is still worth noting: Top draft choices aren't paying immediate dividends.
Take this year's draft, for instance. The top pick, Yao Ming, is a project with a capital P. He needs to learn a new language in addition to new rules, and jumps into the NBA schedule despite not having had a rest in at least two years. The second pick, Jay Williams, is taking his lumps as a rookie point guard in Chicago, but he's been a staggering success compared with some of the players taken later.
Consider Melvin Ely, Chris Wilcox, Bostjan Nachbar, Fred Jones and Marcus Haislip, for example. Each was taken in the top fifteen picks, but none has received more than a token garbage-time minute or two thus far.
Mike Dunleavy, the third overall pick, hasn't fared much better. He's made just one of 11 field-goal attempts in his young career and is stuck deep in the Warriors' rotation. Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Nene Hilario have shown promise in Denver, but both have been mistake-prone and are averaging single figures in scoring.
Even the ones who have done well come with an asterisk. The Suns' Amare Stoudemire is the top rookie rebounder at 7.3 per game, but he's also shooting just 31 percent and has failed to take the starting job from the shriveled wreck known as Tom Gugliotta. San Antonio's Emanuel Ginobili has shown defensive talent but is shooting just 38 percent, while Washington's Jared Jeffries and Orlando's Ryan Humphrey have had their moments but been turnover-prone.
Besides Giricek and Burke, neither of whom were selected in this year's draft, only two rookies have truly made an impact, and it's no secret why. Drew Gooden of the Grizzlies developed his game for three years at Kansas -- an eternity these days -- and is now averaging 15 points a game on scintillating 55 percent shooting for the Grizzlies.
Meanwhile, Caron Butler did two full years at Connecticut before turning pro and was far older than most rookies at 22. He's now averaging 14 points and six boards a night for Miami and contributing at the other end, holding Sacramento's Peja Stojakovic to 2-of-13 shooting during the Heat's win over the Kings on Sunday night.
The lesson is simple. Long term, the trend has been that the high-schoolers are the ones who end up in All-Star Games and shoe commercials. But for immediate impact, experienced rookies like Butler and Gooden will have the upper hand. The fact that fewer players are entering the league with that level of experience has made the impact rookie an endangered species.
Injury déja vú
For Vince Carter and Grant Hill, it's a familiar situation. Carter missed the latter part of last season with a tendon problem in his left knee, and re-aggravated it Saturday. He hobbled off the court in the first quarter of the Raptors' loss to Houston and is listed as day-to-day. Meanwhile, Hill missed nearly all of the past two seasons with an ankle injury, but reported feeling better than ever heading into this season. However, he sat out the second half of the Magic's win over the Bucks on Saturday after experiencing ankle pain. The Magic still insist Hill will play against Sacramento on Tuesday, but Orlando fans are understandably nervous.
Knicks get Nailon Lee Nailon was caught in a numbers crunch in New Orleans and waived by the Hornets last week, but the Knicks were quick to pounce on the situation. Using their salary cap exception (as well as their unabashed willingness to pay the luxury tax), the Knicks picked up the tab on the small forward's contract and have pushed him into their rotation. While this has many in New York wondering if Nailon's arrival is a prelude to Latrell Sprewell's departure, there may be a more practical reason. After all, Shandon Anderson shot 39.9 percent last year and averaged just five points a game. Nailon couldn't possibly be any worse ... right?
SWISH: Aaron McKie
Filling in as a starter with Greg Buckner and Derrick Coleman out of the lineup, the 76ers' swingman indicated that he might be interested in keeping the gig. McKie shot 59 percent from the floor in three games while averaging 20 points, eight rebounds and three steals a night.
BRICK: Eddy Curry
The Baby Bull was supposed to bust out in his second season after a promising end to last year. Instead, his defense is as bad as ever and he's been unaggressive on the glass. As a result, Curry has been limited to just 15 minutes a night. His effort against Atlanta on Saturday night was so uninspiring that the Bulls resorted to using Donyell Marshall at center for long stretches.
SWISH: Glenn Robinson
The Big Dog has busted out in a big way in his new Atlanta digs. After three straight games over 30 points, he is leading the league in scoring at 31.3 points per game and has the Hawks at 2-1 to start the year. If he keeps it up, it will go a long way toward fulfilling the team's playoff guarantee, and save them the nuisance of refunding $150 to both season-ticket holders.
BRICK: The Knicks in the fourth quarter
Anyone watching the Knicks-Celtics game on Saturday night knew the script had already been written -- the Knicks were destined to falter. The Knicks have played three games and blown fourth-quarter leads in all of them. On a team whose biggest "name" off the bench is Howard Eisley, Don Chaney has felt compelled to run his starters into the ground. An exhausted Allan Houston scored 37 points in the first 38 minutes Saturday -- and two in the final 10 minutes.
SWISH: James Posey
The swingman for the Nuggets had his first career triple-double Saturday night with 19 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists as the Nuggets shocked the Blazers 96-79. After struggling mightily last year, Posey is averaging 16.7 points, 11.7 boards and raised his normally shaky shooting to 48 percent.
BRICK: Sam Cassell
Normally a dead-eye scorer, Cassell shot 30 percent and averaged just 10.5 points per game last week, including an ugly 1-for-10 in Saturday's one-sided loss at home to the Magic. He hasn't been distributing it well either, sporting an ugly 1:1 assist-turnover ratio.
Sacramento at Orlando, Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. EST The Kings cruised past three overmatched opponents to open the season until slipping at Miami on Sunday, hardly feeling the loss of Mike Bibby or the suspension of Doug Christie. That will change Tuesday, when they face an Orlando team that has been scoring at will. The combo of Grant Hill -- if he's really playing -- and Tracy McGrady should give the Kings their first stern test of the young season.
Seattle at New Orleans, Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. EST Ever see that commercial for "The Quiet People?" Seattle and New Orleans are the quiet teams. Nobody's talking about them much as the season gets under way, but the Sonics are unbeaten while the Hornets have just one blemish on their record. Additionally, the matchup of Baron Davis and Gary Payton sets two of the league's top point guards head-to-head.
Los Angeles Lakers at Washington Wizards, Friday, 8:00 p.m. EST Nothing gets Kobe Bryant amped up like a shot at playing against his idol, Michael Jordan. With no Shaquille O'Neal around to pester him for touches and the complaints about his selfish play subsiding now that the Lakers aren't winless, look for an amped-up Kobe to put extra oomph into his one-on-five routine Friday night.
Just when everybody thought the Cavs and Nuggets were shoo-ins to be the names in the last two envelopes on lottery day, they go and pull off road upsets of Pacific Division teams that most thought would make the playoffs.
Cleveland followed its win over the Clippers with a dignity-maintaining four point loss in Phoenix, while the Nuggets' 96-79 dismantling of Portland was downright disturbing. All of which leaves us looking for darkhorses to win the LeBron Lottery. Knicks, anyone?
Remember that movie The Breakfast Club? There's a song by Simple Minds on the soundtrack called Don't You Forget About Me, which is a roundabout way of telling you that Off the Glass is saying Don't You Forget About Shaq. Sure, you may have some quibbles about his free-throw shooting, but can you live with 27 points, 12 boards, 2 blocks and shooting in the mid-50s? I thought so. Besides, we're not exactly awash in great centers right now. On my team, for instance, Zeljko Rebraca is being viewed as a godsend.
This is the part where we ask you, the reader, to stop waving that towel on the sidelines, pull off the warmups, get on the floor and take some shots. Each week we'll ask a question and post the best responses a week later.
Last week the Glance asked which team had improved the most in the offseason. The Washington Wizards were the most popular answer, but the Hawks, Nets, Clippers and Rockets had a lot of support from the audience. Here's what some of you thought:
The Wizards have to take that prize. With the acquisition of Stackhouse, Oakley and others, and the offseason improvements of their other young players -- this team is going to be a contender this year. Juan S., Los Angeles
The Clippers. Most improved by far. Finally, with Miller at the point, they'll have some method to the mad skills. David Malesky, Chicago
If the Cavaliers' ultimate long-term goal is indeed to get LeBron James, then I'd have to say the Cavaliers improved the most in the offseason. They are well on their way to obtaining their goal. Ioseba, Madrid, Spain
It's easy to pick teams with new All-Star players like the Clippers or the Wizards, but I really like the moves made by the Spurs. Adding quickness in the backcourt (Ginobili and Claxton), retaining role players (Rose and Bowen), bringing in some veteran depth (Willis and Kerr). With a healthy Robinson, the Spurs may finally be able to challenge the Lakers. Andreas Kruse, Hannover, Germany
I would have to say my Houston Rockets, with a 7-foot-6 soon-to-be-best big man in the league, as soon as Shaq gets tired and becomes a police officer. Yao will take some bumps and bruises along the way, but that will be vital in the long run. If yao know what I ming! Get ready to hear that a lot this year! Joey, Ottawa, Ont.
Cooking Bulls: Jay Williams is the best ingredient. Donyell Marshall is peaking. Add Curry. Add Chandler. Add Robinson. Add Rose. Stir. Bake at 180 degrees. Thomas Ditewig, Peoria, Ill.
The Hawks. With the addition of Glenn Robinson, and a healthy Theo Ratliff, they will make the playoffs easily. Moha, Chicago
The Sonics. Vin Baker is no longer a liability, simple as that. Mark Woods, Aberdeen, Wash.
I think that New Jersey has improved the most A true defender and rebounder in Mutombo gets them into the up-tempo game that they like to play. E. Russel, Houston
This week's topic: Who has made the most impressive comeback from injury this year?
John Hollinger covers the NBA for CNNSI.com. "Week at a Glance" appears each Monday during the season.
