Competitive Mountain West, A-10 could hurt many bubble teams
Bubble Watch (Cont.)
Bubble Watch (Cont.)
One of the selection committee's main mantras is "Conferences don't get bids," but what's going on in the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 is very bad news for potential bubble teams from other leagues.
The Mountain West is the No. 2 conference in RPI, and for the most part, the top teams have beaten up on each other with almost all of the games going to the home team. This has created a scenario where teams are reinforcing each other and it seems a virtual certainty that the league will get four teams into the NCAA tournament. Even more concerning to bubble treams is Boise State, which still has several more opportunities for big wins (with three of its last four games at home). Thanks to the overall strength of the league, the Broncos still have a serious chance of playing their way in. They're a First Four team in today's new bracket.
What's worse for traditional power-conference bubblers is similar action is starting to unfold in the Atlantic 10. The top of the league is playing a quasi-round robin down the homestretch of the season, and teams like Saint Louis and Temple are picking up valuable wins to help their profile. This league also looks pretty likely to get four teams into the NCAAs, with five not an unreasonable ask at this point.
Five bids from two leagues outside the traditional powers? That's historically unheard of, but it's very much in play this season. If that happens, that takes eight at-larges out of the pool, and puts a significant squeeze on bubble teams from the SEC, Big East, Pac-12 and others. That's even before conference tournament upsets could push teams like Memphis, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee State, Akron and Belmont into the at-large pool.
So, with less than three weeks until Selection Sunday, this season's motto is becoming "Bluebloods beware." There aren't going to be as many seats at the table as you're used to.
Locks: Duke, Miami
Miami's recent struggles finally caught up with the Hurricanes at Wake Forest, but the overreaction to the loss in some quarters was pretty crazy. The Hurricanes can also lose at Cameron on March 2 and still win the league. If they make the ACC final on top of that, they have a very solid chance of keeping a 1-seed. It's hard to imagine them dropping lower than a 2. Why panic over one result, even if it had been coming for several games. If the slide continues, we can reevaluate. As for Duke, it continues to leak information that Ryan Kelly will be back before the NCAAs, and it may well end up being true, but this remains a "we'll believe it when we see it" issue for the committee.
SHOULD BE IN
North Carolina State (19-8, 8-6; RPI: 25, SOS: 14)
Saturday's fade at North Carolina is the latest in a growing list of disappointing efforts from the Wolfpack. At just 8-6 in a less-than-robust ACC this season, the Pack are arrowing toward a very undesirable seed line in the NCAAs. They made it to the Sweet 16 last season as an 11-seed, but falling into the 8/9 area might push them into a tough second-game matchup, since they (if they are the third-highest overall seed from the ACC) wouldn't be able to be in Duke's or Miami's regionals.
GW: UConn (N), Duke, North Carolina?, UMass?
BL: at Wake Forest
IN THE MIX
North Carolina (18-8, 9-5; RPI: 20, SOS: 12)
The Tar Heels reestablished normalcy in their relationship with NC State, handling the Wolfpack at the Dean Dome. Weirdly, given the disparate talk about the two teams, their resumes aren't all that different. Either way, the Heels should feel more comfortable about their NCAA prospects this week, but their work is far from done. They close at Clemson, vs. Florida State at Maryland, and home to Duke.
GW: UNLV, NC State, at Florida State?
BL: at Texas
Virginia (19-9, 9-5; RPI: 74, SOS: 129)
The Cavaliers had a chance to take out Miami on the road, but had some bad luck down the stretch. That would have been huge, but they had to settle for a make-up rout of Georgia Tech on Sunday. Now they get Duke at home before road games at Boston College and Florida State and a home finale with Maryland. I wrote a few weeks ago if Virginia got to 12-6, it would get in, and I still feel that way.
GW: NC State, at Wisconsin, North Carolina, at Maryland?
BL: Delaware, Old Dominion (N), at Wake Forest, at Clemson, at Georgia Tech, at George Mason
Maryland (19-8, 7-7; RPI: 66, SOS: 104)
It's not a total offset to the Duke home win, but losing at Boston College in the next game was a giant mistake. As NC State continues to fade, one of their two marquee wins weakens, as well. The Terps have to be able to handle Georgia Tech on the road next, as they are at Wake Forest (which is much tougher at home), home to North Carolina and then at Virginia. That final game could be enormous for both teams.
GW: Duke, NC State
BL: At Boston College
Locks: Syracuse, Louisville, Marquette, Georgetown
Georgetown continues to impress and surge up the seed list after winning at Syracuse on Saturday. The Hoyas now are in sole possession of first place in the league after Marquette lost at Villanova. How many more Big East teams will get into the field? The group behind these four have been up and down, so relative positioning continues to change.
**Reminder: Connecticut is ineligible for postseason play this season.**
SHOULD BE IN
Pittsburgh (21-7, 9-6; RPI: 39, SOS: 49)
The Panthers won decisively at St. John's in their only game of the week. That may have been the toughest of their four remaining games, given Road Villanova is nothing like Home Villanova. Pittsburgh hosts South Florida before the Wildcats, and then close at DePaul.
GW: at Georgetown, UConn, Syracuse, at Cincinnati
BL: None, really (but three home league losses)
Notre Dame (22-6, 10-5; RPI: 40, SOS: 77)
The Irish routed Cincinnati in their only game of the week, and now they have almost another week before playing at Marquette on Saturday. If any team could use this extended rest, it's the Irish. They probably only need one more win to feel 100 percent secure (if they even need that at this point), with a shot at Louisville waiting in the regular-season finale.
GW: Louisville, at Pitt, Sweep of Cincinnati, BYU (N)?, Kentucky (with Noel)?
BL: at Providence
IN THE MIX
Villanova (17-11, 9-7; RPI: 54, SOS: 34)
A 1-1 week actually helps Villanova in a way, but still it's disappointing. The Wildcats picked up a big win over Marquette at home, and then lost a late lead and fell at Seton Hall. If they can get a split of the final week (at Pitt and home to Georgetown), they'll have a pretty good profile for a cutline team.
GW: Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, at Connecticut
BL: Columbia, Swept by Providence, at Seton Hall
Cincinnati (19-9, 7-8; RPI: 50, SOS: 30)
Uh oh. The Bearcats couldn't get either road game at Connecticut or Notre Dame and now face a lot of pressure in their next game: a rematch with UConn at home. If Cincinnati dosn't get that one, with a game at Louisville up next, it is looking at an 8-10 league finish. With their quality wins, the Bearcats would probably still be OK with that, but this profile is weakening rapidly. If they bomb out early in the Big East tournament, could the Bearcats unexpectedly find themselves very nervous?
GW: Oregon (N), Marquette, at Pitt, Iowa State (N)?, Xavier (N)?
BL: at Providence, St. John's?
St. John's (16-11, 8-7; RPI: 62, SOS: 34)
The Red Storm were blasted at home by Pitt, which is a dicey move for them at this stage. They have road games at improved Providence and Notre Dame, and then host Marquette to finish. They need to find some wins in that stretch and then do some work in the Big East tournament.
GW: at Cincinnati, UConn, Notre Dame?
BL: at San Francisco, UNC Asheville
Locks: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Indiana has taken control atop the league and looks very well positioned to nab the 1-seed in the Midwest regional. Could there be two Big Ten No. 1 seeds? The rest of the regular season and the conference tournament will determine that, but if someone creates separation from the others and wins the tournament, it's quite possible.
SHOULD BE IN
Ohio State (20-7, 10-5; RPI: 19, SOS: 14)
Huge home wins over Minnesota and Michigan State have the Buckeyes solidly on their way into the field, and likely with a decent seed to boot. Even with all their best work still coming to home, this profile is much improved from a week ago. Of course, winning at Indiana next week would fix that flaw in a big way.
GW: Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan State
Illinois (19-9, 7-8, RPI: 33, SOS: 7)
The Illini got the most likely result for the week, beating Penn State at home and then losing at Michigan. Now they have all week to prep for a game at home against Nebraska. They close at Iowa and Ohio State, so this may be the win that gets them to 8-10, which should be more than enough.
GW: Butler (N), at Gonzaga, Indiana, Ohio State, at Minnesota
BD: at Purdue?, Northwestern?
Minnesota (18-9, 6-8; RPI: 16, SOS: 1)
The Gophers still have 11 top-100 wins and three top-25 victories. Breathe, Gophers fans. Breathe. That said, with Indiana coming in on Tuesday, this may get slightly dicier before it gets better. The last three: home to Penn State and then at Nebraska and Purdue are good opportunities to pick up wins. If Minnesota can get two of those and get to 8-10, the Gophers should be fine.
GW: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Memphis (N), at Illinois, at Florida State?
BL: at Northwestern, at Iowa (by 21)?
IN THE MIX
Iowa (17-10, 6-8; RPI: 91, SOS: 113)
Iowa fans on my Twitter feed were worried about the game at Nebraska, and apparently with good reason. A loss there has really put the squeeze on the Hawkeyes' hopes. The good news: three of the last four are at home (Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska). If they can't win at Indiana on Saturday, can they win the three home games, make the Big Ten semis and get in? They need (at least) another big win.
GW: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa State?
BL: At Virginia Tech, at Purdue, at Nebraska
Locks: Kansas, Kansas State
Kansas eked out a win at Gallagher-Iba, then thrashed TCU in a revenge win and escaped Iowa State's Hilton Coliseum with a huge overtime win to stay atop the league along with Kansas State. The Jayhawks' sweep of K-State has them in tiebreaker advantage for the conference tournament 1-seed as things stand. Oklahoma State is close to joining this category. Will the final number be four, five or six?
SHOULD BE IN
Oklahoma State (20-6, 10-4; RPI: 27, SOS: 43)
The Pokes fell at home in double-OT to Kansas and dropped a game off the pace, but in terms of NCAA tournament lockdom, they can take care of that this week with wins at TCU and home to Texas. They travel to Iowa State and then host Kansas State in the final week.
GW: At Kansas, NC State (N), Oklahoma?, Baylor?, Tennessee (N)?
BL: At Virginia Tech?
Oklahoma (18-8, 9-5; RPI: 19, SOS: 5)
A big 2-0 week for the Sooners, including a pounding of Baylor, puts them in solid position. There's zero precedent for a major-conference team with an RPI as good as this being left out. If they get past a trip to Texas this week, they could win out (but they won't need to).
GW: Kansas, Sweep of Baylor
BL: Stephen F. Austin
IN THE MIX
Iowa State (19-9, 9-6; RPI: 53; SOS: 71)
The Cyclones suffered a brutal overtime loss to Kansas, with the referees playing a major factor throughout (and definitely down the stretch). Iowa State really should have won both games against Kansas. A win at Baylor helps the Cyclones separate from the Bears in the league pecking order, though. Now they're at Oklahoma and home to Oklahoma State. If the Cyclones get one of those and handle a trip to West Virginia in the finale, I like their chances.
GW: BYU?, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Sweep of Baylor
BL: at Texas Tech, at Texas
Baylor (15-11, 7-7; RPI: 64, SOS: 31)
The Bears are now in a good deal of trouble. They have been swept by Oklahoma and Iowa State and are definitively "Team No. 6" out of this league. Can they change that? They still host both Kansas schools, so maybe, but room for error is very small at this point.
GW: Oklahoma State, at Kentucky (with Noel), BYU?
BL: Northwestern, College of Charleston
The intrigue at the top of the league gets a little deeper with Monday's news that Dominic Artis may be back for Oregon on Thursday, and that he's pretty close to returning either way. The Ducks clearly need him back at full strength. Arizona visits the L.A. schools this week, with the game at Pauley possibly holding title implications.
SHOULD BE IN
Oregon (22-6, 11-4; RPI: 49, SOS: 96)
The Ducks are 5-4 now without Artis in the lineup. Assuming he makes it back either Thursday against Oregon State or for the final road weekend and looks decent, the committee should give the Ducks a seed bump. They were 17-2 with him and the numbers show they are a very different team without him. Just having the Civil War game on Thursday this week should help the Ducks at this stage of the season, too.
GW: at UNLV, Arizona, at UCLA
UCLA (20-7, 10-4; RPI: 42, SOS: 44)
Getting revenge in the rivalry game with USC keeps the Bruins in a tie for first (in the loss column). Now they get the Arizona schools at home, with the Wildcats on Saturday being the headliner. The final weekend has a visit to the Washington schools, which isn't the toughest trip in the league this year.
GW: Missouri, at Colorado, at Arizona, Indiana State?, at Stanford?
BL: Cal Poly, USC
Colorado (18-8, 8-6; RPI: 29, SOS: 21)
The Buffaloes dispatched Utah in their only game of the week. Call it a necessary win, not necessarily a helpful one. Now a trip to the Bay Area looms. If CU can get a split there, they should be okay. They still have a home weekend with the Oregon schools left, and anything over .500 probably is good enough.
GW: Arizona, Baylor (N), at Oregon, Colorado State, Murray State (N)?
BL: at Utah
IN THE MIX
California (18-9, 10-5; RPI: 45, SOS: 33)
The Bears continue their late-season surge and have moved into NCAA at-large position after sweeping a road weekend at the Oregon schools by a total of three points. They have swept the Ducks (both games without Artis) to go with the win at Arizona to put together a slate of quality Ws better than many other bubble teams. Their final three games -- Utah, Colorado, Stanford -- are at home, too.
GW: At Arizona, UCLA, Sweep of Oregon
Arizona State (20-8, 9-6; RPI: 87, SOS: 124)
Will the Sun Devils look back at the home loss to Washington as the one that cost them an at-large? Possibly. The defeat helped push ASU into untenable RPI territory and now their final three league games are on the road, including games at UCLA and Arizona.
GW: Sweep of Colorado, UCLA
BL: DePaul, Stanford?, Washington?
Washington (15-13, 7-8; RPI: 74, SOS: 27)
Their final three are at home, so 10-8 is possible, but they will need a deep run in the Pac-12 tournament run to have a case.
GW: Saint Louis, Colorado
BL: Albany, Nevada, Utah, at Oregon State
Stanford (16-12, 7-8; RPI: 67, SOS: 37)
They couldn't win at Artis-less Oregon and there really isn't very much hope for an at-large now. If they win their final three, maybe we can take a longer look.
GW: Oregon, at Arizona State?
BL: Swept by USC
The Gators gave up a sizable lead at Missouri and now are 0-3 in games decided by single digits. It's a credit to the Gators that they're rarely in close games, but they haven't handled tight situations well this season. Late-game decisions at Arizona and Missouri were poor. We'll see if that rears its head in the NCAAs.
SHOULD BE IN
Missouri (19-8, 8-6; RPI: 38, SOS: 52)
The Tigers stormed back against Florida to get the huge marquee win they needed, but then fell at Kentucky in overtime. Still a positive week for them. Now they need to handle business at South Carolina and then home against LSU and Arkansas. If they avoid a bad loss in the next three games, they should be fine in terms of making the NCAA field.
GW: Florida, VCU (N), Illinois (N), Mississippi?
BL: at LSU
IN THE MIX
Kentucky (19-8, 10-4; RPI: 46, SOS: 49)
It may not be dominant or always pretty, but the Wildcats picked up two sorely needed wins without Nerlens Noel, including their best of the season, a national TV overtime victory over Missouri on Saturday. Beating bottomfeeder Mississippi State next is a must. Then they can take a swing at an Arkansas/Georgia road trip and a home date with Florida and see what happens.
GW: Missouri, Maryland (N), at Ole Miss
BL: at Tennessee
Mississippi (20-7, 9-5; RPI: 56, SOS: 126)
The Rebels suffered a terrible loss at South Carolina, a really damaging development for a profile built on a strong league record and little else. I don't know if they can afford another regular-season loss and assume they will get in without some serious work in the SEC tournament. The game against Alabama in the final week of the season looks huge for both teams.
BL: at South Carolina
Tennessee (16-10, 8-6; RPI: 57, SOS: 36)
Here we go again with the Volunteers making a late-season push toward the NCAAs. Is it too late? With home games against Florida (Tuesday) and Missouri remaining, this profile could improve radically if Tennessee wins its last four.
GW: Wichita State, UMass (N)?, Kentucky?
Alabama (17-9, 10-4; RPI: 62, SOS: 84)
The Tide are about finished with a stretch of nine straight games vs. sub-100 league foes (although Arkansas is not in that category anymore), and suffering a loss at LSU wasn't a good idea at this stage. Assuming they can handle Auburn, the trip to Florida and Mississippi will determine how viable this profile is entering the SEC tournament. Right now, it's hasn't got nearly enough good wins and too many bad losses.
BL: Mercer, Tulane, at Auburn, at LSU
Locks: New Mexico
The Lobos went into Fort Collins, took a bunch of heavy overhand rights, stood in there, and finished off Colorado State thanks to the game-of-a-lifetime from Kendall Williams, who poured in 46 points with a league-record 10 three-pointers. The Lobos are now two games up on the Rams (with the tiebreaker) and look ready to claim another regular-season title. Now the question is how high a seed can the Lobos get?
SHOULD BE IN
Colorado State (19-6, 8-4; RPI: 16, SOS: 24)
The Rams competed to the death in both games, but fell short both at UNLV (by a deuce) and at home to New Mexico, thanks in massive part to Williams' explosion. Now they need to regroup and take care of business against the bottom half of the league. Finishing second in the league is a big plum for the conference tournament. The 7-seed will be significantly weaker than the 5- and 6-seeds. The road game at Boise on Saturday is a big flex point. Win that one and CSU probably will hold on to second.
GW: UNLV, San Diego State, at Air Force?, at Washington?
BL: None, really
UNLV (20-7, 8-5; RPI: 15, SOS: 11)
After slipping past Colorado State on Anthony Marshall's late jumper, the Rebels got a break at Wyoming. The Cowboys were without Leonard Washington, which makes them much less formidable, even at home. The sweep of the week has the Rebels just half a game behind Colorado State.
GW: Sweep of San Diego State, New Mexico, Colorado State, Iowa State?, at Cal
BL: At Fresno State
IN THE MIX
San Diego State (18-7, 8-5; RPI: 32, SOS: 38)
Two home wins against Wyoming and Nevada have the Aztecs tied for third, a half game behind Colorado State for second, but the schedule isn't favorable for them. Wednesday brings a trip to The Pit, and then the Aztecs close with Air Force (who has beaten them already) and at Boise State (who is still looking for a way into the bracket). Two more wins total probably are enough to book an at-large.
GW: UCLA (N), Indiana State (N), Colorado State, New Mexico
Boise State (16-8, 6-6; RPI: 47, SOS 69)
The Broncos won the first two of their three must-wins. Now they have to handle Nevada at home before a final three-game blitz. Colorado State and San Diego State still come to Boise, and the Broncos also have a game at UNLV, so they definitely have a chance to make it five teams from the conference.
GW: at Creighton, UNLV, sweep of Wyoming?
BL: at Utah?, at Nevada
Air Force (13-10, 6-6; RPI: 75, SOS: 63)
After losing at Boise State, this probably isn't going to happen, but the Falcons have some chances left. If they can handle Wyoming at home and then win at Fresno, they'll be 8-6 heading to San Diego State, with New Mexico at home in the finale. Stranger things have happened.
GW: San Diego State, UNLV, at Wyoming?
BL: at Nevada
We see you Saint Louis. A sweep of Butler has started to create some separation at the top of the league (finally), but things won't be settled until the final game. The bigger story is the consolidation of teams like Temple. Could the A-10 get a league-record five bids? That quarterfinal loser may have a long couple of days to find out.
SHOULD BE IN
Saint Louis (21-5, 10-2; RPI: 35, SOS: 71)
The Billikens pounded VCU and then went to Butler and finished off a sweep of the Bulldogs. That's a very strong statement of intent as to who the top dogs in the league are. SLU looks ready to win the conference title, with a schedule that's much more manageable than the other contenders. The only top-50 game left, La Salle, is at home.
GW: New Mexico, sweep of Butler, at Richmond?
BL: Rhode Island, Santa Clara?
Butler (21-6, 9-4; RPI: 31, SOS: 60)
Butler's mini-slip in form continued when Saint Louis came into Hinkle and rallied for a win and a sweep of the season series. Now the Bulldogs head to VCU on Saturday in a mouthwatering style clash. Games at UMass and vs. Xavier to close things out aren't easy, either.
GW: Indiana (N), Marquette (N), North Carolina (N), Gonzaga
IN THE MIX
La Salle (19-7, 9-4; RPI: 37, SOS: 73)
A loss at Temple makes the season-ending game at Saint Louis a little more important, but the Explorers need to handle the next two at home (Duquesne and George Washington) first. If they finish at 11-5, they should be pretty well positioned to lock up a bid with solid A-10 tourney work.
GW: Butler, at VCU
BL: Central Connecticut State
VCU (22-6, 10-3; RPI: 36, SOS: 76)
After getting worked over at Saint Louis, the Rams bounced back with a needed win at Xavier. Now Butler comes calling before Richmond and then a trip to Temple closes out the regular season. This profile is still lacking in quality wins, so this game against Butler is pretty important.
GW: Memphis (N), Belmont?, Alabama?
BL: None, really
Temple (19-8, 8-5; RPI: 41, SOS: 42)
Wins over city rival La Salle and at Charlotte have the Owls in much better shape this week. They absolutely need to handle Rhode Island at home and a game at Fordham. Then VCU comes in for the season finale. At 11-5, the Owls would be looking pretty nifty in terms of at-large position.
GW: Syracuse (N), Saint Louis?, at UMass?, at Charlotte?
BL: Canisius, St. Bonaventure
Massachusetts (17-9, 7-6; RPI: 56, SOS: 59)
The loss at St. Bonaventure may be too much to overcome at this stage, but let's see how they handle this week at Xavier and home to Butler.
GW: at La Salle?
BL: George Washington, at St. Bonaventure
Charlotte (18-8, 6-6; RPI: 60, SOS: 101)
The 49ers needed to beat Temple at home. There's nothing left that can really help them beyond record enhancement. We'll see where they stand in two weeks heading into the postseason.
GW: At Butler
BL: at George Washington
Xavier (15-11, 8-5; RPI: 95, SOS: 100)
With the schedule left, I'll never say never, but it's getting late early for the Musketeers. They have Memphis, UMass and Saint Louis at home before closing at Butler. Winning all four probably is needed.
GW: Butler, Temple?
BL: Pacific (N), Vanderbilt, at Wake Forest, Wofford, at Dayton
Creighton's slide continues and the Bluejays are now behind Wichita State in the overall pecking order. Could the Bluejays really be left out of the NCAA tournament? It's not unthinkable. Can Indiana State force its way in still? Can a mystery champ get the league a third bid in a different way?
SHOULD BE IN
Wichita State (24-5, 12-4; RPI: 29, SOS: 104)
The Shockers won at Indiana State and then handled Detroit in BracketBusters and look very good for a bid now. There are no truly great wins, but a lot of decent ones in the profile. A share (at least) of the Valley crown should be enough to punch the ticket. And if they beat Evansville midweek, they will have that. Of course, they can totally take care of business by winning at Creighton in the regular-season finale.
GW: at VCU, Creighton, at Air Force?, Southern Miss, at Indiana State?
BL: at Evansville, at Southern Illinois
Creighton (22-7, 11-5; RPI: 44, SOS: 93)
Let's just say the Bluejays don't want to lose at Bradley on Wednesday. They close at home with Wichita State. Could three more losses actually bounce the Bluejays entirely? This profile isn't that good. This situation is becoming something to keep an eye on.
GW: Wisconsin (N), Arizona State (N), at Cal?, Indiana State?
BL: at Drake, Illinois State
IN THE MIX
Indiana State (16-11, 9-7; RPI: 59, SOS: 56)
Edging Iona in BracketBusters was modest consolation for letting Wichita State get away from Terre Haute with a W. Take care of Drake and a trip to Evansville and we can take another look.
GW: Mississippi (N), Miami (N), at Wichita State, Creighton
BL: at Morehead State, at Illinois State, at Drake, at Missouri State, at Bradley
The Zags may very well end up as a 1-seed in the NCAAs. They're four wins away from that, it appears. Saint Mary's got the BracketBusters boost it wanted, but will it be enough?
SHOULD BE IN
IN THE MIX
Saint Mary's (23-5, 12-2; RPI: 43, SOS: 116)
The Gaels got both key home games, giving them a sweep of BYU and a win over Creighton, which makes their resume significantly better. Now what? Is that enough? They can't be an at-large with a win over Gonzaga, so this is basically what they would offer the committee sans auto bid.
GW: Creighton, sweep of BYU, at Utah State??
BL: Pacific (N), Georgia Tech (N)
BYU (18-9, 9-5; RPI: 58, SOS: 90)
The Cougars are now auto-bid or bust, in my opinion, even if they manage to beat Gonzaga on Thursday. They have failed in every game against a quality opponent this season. You can't do that with a WCC slate.
BL: at San Diego, San Francisco
SHOULD BE IN
Memphis (24-3, 13-0; RPI: 18, SOS: 71)
The Tigers have won Conference USA and are going to dance. This upcoming three-game road trip to Xavier, Central Florida and UTEP will be important for seeding. Even without truly good wins, they have nine top-100 wins and no bad losses. That's plenty this season.
GW: Sweep of Southern Miss, at Tennessee?
IN THE MIX
Belmont (20-6, 12-2; RPI: 23, SOS: 75)
The Bruins put on a show, ripping a good Ohio team in BracketBusters. I'm still not sure they can survive another loss in the Ohio Valley, but they'd have an interesting case based on RPI. Missouri State 2006, anyone?
GW: Middle Tennessee State?, at Stanford?
BL: Northeastern (N), at Murray State?
Middle Tennessee State (25-4, 17-1; RPI: 27, SOS: 120)
The Blue Raiders need to navigate two modest road tests to end up 19-1 in the league. Only one top-100 win for the season is a huge minus. So is the loss to fellow bubbler Belmont by 15.
BL: at Arkansas State
Akron (21-4, 12-0; RPI: 48, SOS: 149)
They're at Ohio this week, with the Bobcats trying to pull into a tie for first. Like the other mids on this list, they need to keep winning. The MAC isn't as good in terms of depth as normal, so the gaudy record doesn't carry as much weight even though this is a good team.
GW: Middle Tennessee State?
BL: at Coastal Carolina
Louisiana Tech (23-3, 14-0; RPI: 51, SOS: 227)
Same as it ever was. Louisiana Tech keeps winning, and the Bulldogs will need to handle the season-ending trip to New Mexico State and Denver to have a reasonable case.
GW: Southern Miss?
BL: at McNeese State
Bucknell (21-5, 10-2; RPI: 52, SOS: 165)
Likely auto-bid or bust, but they're going to be the 1-seed in the conference tournament and will have home-court advantage.
GW: La Salle?
BL: At Penn State, at Princeton, at Lafayette