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How the Ashes will be won and lost
LONDON (Reuters) -- With Australia going into the Ashes series against England on Thursday as overwhelming favurite, home captain Nasser Hussain will have isolated several key areas where his side must excel if they wish to compete.
The mental battleIf confidence alone decided sporting encounters, Australia should win 5-0. Sixteen test wins in a row confirmed its world supremacy, despite the ensuing glitch of a 2-1 series defeat in India. A comprehensive victory in the just-concluded one-day series against Pakistan and England -- which lost all six of its matches including being bowled out for 86 by the Australians -- will have strengthened Aussie self-belief. Captain Steve Waugh will doubtless translate that into some choice words to help accelerate his opponents' "mental disintegration." Hussain, relatively unscathed after missing the triangular one-day series, will prefer to forget the last few months -- which also included an England collapse to defeat against Pakistan in the second test at Old Trafford. Instead, he will hark back to the mental resilience that helped his side grind out laudable series wins in Sri Lanka and Pakistan around the turn of the year. In a sense, however, Hussain has been forced to concede ground to Waugh by not only acknowledging the Australians as the world's best but also by saying that he is as interested in how his injury-hit side competes as in the results.
Scoring ratesIf Australia's batting and bowling were not formidable enough, it is the way it dictate the pace of matches which makes it so dangerous. It regularly scores at between three and four an over, always giving its bowlers a chance to bowl out the opposition twice. In the first test in India in February, it scored 349 in 73.2 overs in the first innings. England is far more conservative, looking to establish a solid if unspectacular platform before gauging its chances of victory. Over its last 10 tests, it has averaged 2.45 an over -- 220 a day -- while the Australians over the same period made 3.43 an over, adding up to 90 more runs per day.
Head-to-headsThe series will throw up a series of confrontations but none more important than that between Michael Atherton and Glenn McGrath. The omens for England are not good. Cricketing bible Wisden has calculated that, in a direct head-to-head, the English opener averages just 12 against Australia's main strike bowler. He also loses his wicket once every two innings to the pace bowler. More worryingly for England, McGrath appears to have begun his homework on Atherton's opening partner, bowling him both times in their last two meetings in the recent triangular one-day series. The final encounter, at The Oval, lasted just six balls before Marcus Trescothick returned to the pavilion without scoring.
The England tailEngland's recent run of success -- four wins and one draw in five test series -- has been built to a large extent on shoring up its batting. The traditional English collapse seemed to have been consigned to history as the tailenders began to contribute with the bat at long last. But that vulnerability returned with a vengeance in the second test against Pakistan as England lost its last eight wickets for 75 in the first innings at Old Trafford and eight for 60 in the second.
The 'Shane Warne factor'Shane Warne may have been ground down by injuries in recent years but he remains among the spinning elite. He has also feasted on Englishmen ever since removing Mike Gatting in 1993 with "The ball of the century," taking 34 wickets in his first series, 27 in 1994/95 and 24 in 1997. England, in contrast, is short of spinning options, a weakness made all the more glaring if left-armer Ashley Giles is ruled out with tonsilitis. It is hard to see how it will force a win on a fifth-day turning pitch.
LuckConsidering the Australians' all-round supremacy, England will need plenty of good fortune to have any real chance. Well-timed rain showers on appropriately prepared seaming pitches would help for a start. The tosses will also be important. England is due for a little luck in this department, having lost 11 spins of the coin in the last 12 tests. The last time the two sides met, in 1998/99, Mark Taylor won all five tosses.
Copyright 2003 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.
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