Home advantage

South Africa can stop Australia at World Cup

By Candy Reid, CNNSI.com

Cricket's premier event, the World Cup, begins next month in South Africa, Kenya, and -- rightly or wrongly -- Zimbabwe. Ricky Ponting's Australia will go in as favorites, but anything can happen in limited-over games and probably will.

Fourteen nations will battle it out starting Feb. 9. Here's a preview of the nations that have the best chance of lifting the coveted trophy.

AUSTRALIA

The Australians are ranked No. 1 in the world for good reason. Firstly their batting lineup is so deep you could scuba dive in it. And secondly they have bowlers like Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath, Jason Gillespie and Brett Lee. However they do have a few flaws. They don't have a world class all-rounder; for one-day internationals they need five quality bowlers, not four (like in tests) and finally test captain Steve Waugh is not in the team.

Now I know many will disagree with me about Waugh, but I believe that he's a tried and tested one-day player and if it came down to the crunch, I'd want him there. Obviously though the Australian selectors don't agree.

Key Men: Ricky Ponting, Glenn McGrath

Preliminary Round Group A  Group B  Australia  South Africa  Pakistan  Sri Lanka  India  West Indies  England  New Zealand  Zimbabwe  Bangladesh  Netherlands  Kenya  Namibia  Canada  Top three in each pool advance to Super Six.

SOUTH AFRICA

Quite often losing helps you improve more than winning. You find out what's going right and what's going wrong and how to improve. This is certainly the case for South Africa. After it was beaten soundly by the Aussies in tests and limited-overs games in March, it replaced coach Graham Ford with Eric Simons, and the move paid off. Shaun Pollock's men have won 15 of the 19 one-dayers they've played under Simons' guidance, including a recent 4-1 victory over Pakistan. The host has a great chance of winning the World Cup final on March 23.

Key Men: Shaun Pollock, Herschelle Gibbs

NEW ZEALAND

Stephen Fleming's team will certainly be difficult to beat at the World Cup, although the Black Caps will be tested straight away as they face Sri Lanka in Bloemfontein on February the 10th. Unlike Australia, the Kiwis' 15-man squad is packed with all-rounders... but success will hinge on Chris Cairne's ability to come back from recent knee surgery and New Zealand's highest-ranked one-day batsman Nathan Astle, who will have surgery on his troublesome knee straight after the World Cup.

Key Men: Nathan Astle, Shane Bond

WEST INDIES

The Windies haven't won the World Cup since capturing the first two in the '70s but Carl Hooper's 2002/3 team put itself into contention in my opinion, when it won the best-of-seven one-day internationals 4-3 against hosts India in November. And it did it without star Brian Lara. Other batsmen, such as Chris Gayle and Marlon Samuels stepped up instead, and Lara, who has recovered from illness, will be back for the World Cup. The Calypso Kings will certainly be a force to be reckoned with in February.

Key Men: Brian Lara, Carl Hooper

PAKISTAN

Winning the World Cup should be motivation alone, but just to make certain, each member of Pakistan's 15-man squad will get about US$75,000 from its cricket board if it can win the trophy and emulate Imran Kahn's 1992-winning squad.

Pakistan, however, faces a tough first match. It'll meet defending champion Australia in Johannesburg in what will be a repeat of the 1999 final, where the Aussies came up trumps winning by eight wickets.

Pakistan is an unpredictable side at best but it will have plenty of experience in Southern Africa. Waqar Younis is a veteran, while Wasim Akram will be playing his fifth World Cup.

Key Men: Wasim Akram, Yousuf Youhana

Unknown Quantity: Shahid Afridi

INDIA

Two teams shared the ICC Champions Trophy in September after rain caused the final to be cancelled. One of those teams was India, and things were going well for Sourav Ganguly's side until the deciding one-dayer against the West Indies in Vijaywada where it was emphatically beaten. Ganguly and Sachin Tendulkar weren't playing that day but they will be in attendance at the World Cup forming a formidable batting lineup and quite capable of beating anyone on their day.

Key Men: Sachin Tendulkar, Harbhajan Singh

SRI LANKA

Sri Lanka was the other team to win the ICC Champions Trophy... and by doing so delighted the home fans. It also has two special weapons. Sanath Jayasuriya, the number one ODI batsman, and Muttiah Muralitharan the number two ODI bowler (as of Jan. 22 2003). However, Sri Lanka's poor performances in the current tri-series against Australia and England won't have done its confidence any good.

Like India, Sri Lanka has had problems over sponsorship contracts. But while India seems to have sorted it all out (for now anyway) Sri Lanka is still having problems. Let's hope all gets resolved in time.

Key Men: Sanath Jayasuriya, Muttiah Muralitharan

ENGLAND

England will only stand a chance of competing if it can field its very best team. A fit Andy Caddick is a necessity, as is a confident Marcus Trescothick. Captain Nasser Hussain and fellow veteran Alec Stewart will also be crucial to steady an inexperienced team along. Glimmers of light during the final Ashes test and VB Triangular Series matches against Sri Lanka will have given confidence, however all the controversy leading up to England's match against Zimbabwe will not have helped last-minute preparations.

Key Men: Marcus Trescothick, Andy Caddick

ZIMBABWE

While I don't think that Zimbabwe will win the title, I do believe that it can compete, and compete well, especially since it'll be playing six matches at home. Last time out Zimbabwe reached the Super Six at the World Cup in 1999, this time it's unlikely it'll reach that stage again looking at recent results. But if captain Heath Streak returns to the side after dislocating his shoulder during the ICC Champions Trophy, you never know.

Key Men: Heath Streak, Andy Flower

My prediction? World No. 1 Australia will meet world No. 2 South Africa in the final, with the home side winning it all!

Candy Reid is an anchor on CNN International's World Sport TV show.

 

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