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Rising sons

Yes, you should've seen Ichiro coming

Posted: Friday March 22, 2002 5:28 PM

Kazuhisa Ishii has stumbled recently but still looks like a solid bet to put up good numbers this season. AP

By Jason Grey, Special to CNNSI.com

OK, we don't have any numbers on these guys in American baseball, so how the heck are we supposed to know what to bid? I'm talking about the influx of veterans of Japanese baseball now entering the major leagues.

Of course, you have to consider these guys on draft day, but how? We can't really apply sabermetrics to their numbers. You can try, but I'm not sure how comfortable you would be. You could just ignore them and let other people make bids that may or may not be risky for these players, but for the love of Ichiro, that would probably be a foolish way to go about it.

So how can you be sure?

For every Hideo Nomo, there's a Masao Kida or Masato Yoshii.
For every Cecil Fielder, there's an Orestes Destrade.
For every Ichiro Suzuki, there's a Tsuyoshi Shinjo (who is admittedly not bad).

So what do we do? Well, here's a case when you have to trust the scouting reports. Sure, scouting reports can often be wrong, but consider:

The Case for Ichiro -- March 2001

Last year, I had Ichiro projected in the preseason to earn somewhere between $24 and $29. Many thought I was crazy. I foolishly let him go at Tout Wars for $24, in another league for $23, and bought him in a third for $22. Of course, he wound up earning much more than that. I'm not immune to ignoring my own instincts from time to time. Perhaps at those dollar values, I felt it to be just a little too much risk. But it shouldn't have been. I'd done my homework, and all signs pointed to this guy being the real thing. I do have a friend of mine in Japan who gave me some insight, but you didn't have to be so lucky as to have a friend in Tokyo. The indications were there last preseason:

"He'll hit at least .300 the first year, and within five years, if not sooner, he'll win a batting title and make the All-Star team." -- Dodgers pitching coach Jim Colborn

"He's Kenny Lofton with a better arm." -- former major league coach Tom House

"He's a complete player: textbook swing, cannon for an arm and tremendous speed. If you looked at his Japanese stats, you'd see he once went 216 at-bats without striking out. He has seven batting titles by age 27. That's impressive in any league." -- Tim Kurkjian

"Pitch him high, he hits line drives. Pitch it low, he'll chop it beautifully. Try overpowering him, and he'll bunt it for a hit. He's so stinking fast, a walk is like a double, because he's already stolen second." -- scout Tom Gaskill

"One of the best pure hitters I've ever seen." -- former major league and Japanese pitcher Brian Raabe

"One of the five best players in the world." -- Bobby Valentine

All of these quotes came in February and March of last year, before Ichiro's first at-bat in the major leagues, and all were well publicized. The overwhelming evidence was too much to ignore, yet many people did because they hadn't seen any "stats."

The point is that sometimes you just have to trust the scouting reports.

Scouting for 2002

Kazuhisa Ishii: This guy was the reason I wrote this column. Ishii has all the makings of a major league star. His slurve variation of the slider has been referred to by more than one scout as "one of the top five sliders in baseball." He has one of those funky hesitation deliveries that will throw off hitters a bit. He has the command of the strike zone and can throw any pitch at any point in the count.

However, he has also had some trouble adapting to the American style of the game, especially in regards to preparation. He also had been worked hard in the Japanese league the last few years and required more than a few cortisone shots to get through a season. He was also hit hard by the Yankees in his last spring outing.

So what do we make of this? I had said he had a good opportunity to earn $20 in value this year prior to his adjustment troubles with American baseball, based solely on his ability to pitch. It's a more risky bet than it first appeared to be at the beginning of spring training, but considering a solidified role in the Dodger rotation and his ability, I think you can safely go into double digits on him and get a good return on your investment. The poor outing against the Yanks and the adjustment troubles are likely to make his price relatively cheaper than first thought. The actual dollar value you should bid obviously depends on your league setup, but make no mistake about it, he is the real deal.

Satoru Komiyama: Upon his signing, the Mets called him the "Japanese Greg Maddux." My fellow writer at mastersball.com, Rob Leibowitz says a more apt description is the "Japanese Bob Tewksbury," with which I tend to agree. He's a solid control pitcher but not dominant. Tewksbury had a small run where he was earning high single-digit or low double-digit values. That is the best you could expect out of Komiyama if he has a spot in the rotation. He would need a couple of injuries to have that opportunity. Right now he is a middle reliever who could earn you a few bucks as an endgame pickup, with the potential for more. Because of his middle relief status, he is likely to slide to the endgame.

So Taguchi: The reports are not that high on Taguchi coming in. At best, he probably has a chance to be Tsuyoshi Shinjo, and Shinjo was .268-10-56-4 last year in 400 at-bats. Decent, but not great. Taguchi is probably not as good as Shinjo by most accounts, and has less power. That means an empty .260-.270 average as a fourth outfielder. He should be nothing more than endgame fodder in deep NL leagues.

We don't have any prior numbers, and Major League Equivalents (MLE's) that we use for the minor leagues are not applied as well to the Japanese leagues. What Ichiro and Hideo Nomo have taught us though, is that great players are great players no matter where they play. And average players are still no better than average players. When scouting is all you have to go on, you have to trust it. To not do so and not take a calculated risk is to give your competitors an advantage.

Jason Grey is the publisher of The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com, a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion. Their 2002 annual featuring strategy and player profiles as well as their 2002 projections for various game formats are available now. Mastersball.com is a member of the Tout Wars and Major League Baseball's experts leagues.

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