Finding value in spring training

It was worth keeping an eye on Kevin Brown's spring efforts, but not necessarily his stats. Donald Miralle/Allsport

By Jason Grey, Special to CNNSI.com

One of the mistakes many fantasy players make, especially in this era of statistics galore on the Internet, is to pay too much attention to the numbers from spring training. You have to laugh in the draft room when you see a player pull out a sheet with the final spring training statistics, or looking at some box scores from spring games trying to find a pitcher with a decent stat line that has not been brought up yet. Granted, that may be from poor preparation, and no Web site will be able to help you with that. However, most of the time, it's because they are placing too much importance on the significance of spring stats.

This is not to say that the events of spring training are unimportant, but there are things you should pay attention to in spring training, and things you should not.

Right off the bat, we need to agree that spring training stats are for the most part not very significant. It's a sample size issue. Any player can probably put up great stats in the limited amount of at-bats or innings pitched that the preseason provides.

Those needing an example need look no further than the Padres camp of 2000, where John Roskos was smoking the ball. He was the Padres' best hitter, batting over .400. Better yet, San Diego was facing some injury problems in the outfield to open up some all-important playing time. You can probably guess where this is going: a 1-for-27 major league run later, and Mr. Roskos was on that bus back to the Pacific Coast League.

Most of the time, spring numbers are probably not indicative of a player's true talents. Far too often, fantasy players mistakenly look at young players that have had a great spring, overlook his entire history of minor league numbers that show he's one of those "good field, no stick" guys, and predict "a breakout" and inevitably overbid.

We're so desperate for "sleepers" these days, and the ability to look like a genius for buying so-and-so for $1 and crowing about "the bargain I got" and how "I knew it all along", that we really want to believe this player is on the verge of something big.

The easiest way to make the picture clear in your mind is to illustrate the opposite. Would you be scared of bidding on Vlad Guerrero if he hit .120 in the spring? Unless there is some injury trouble there, of course you wouldn't. Why, then, would you get overly excited about a good spring performance?

Now that I have established that in your mind, let me step back and say that some spring numbers are indeed important. No one needs to look further than Rick Ankiel to see that there are some numbers and performances we want to watch. Rehabbing players, whether they are pitchers or hitters, fall into that class. We wanted to see how Ankiel is progressing with his control issues before his elbow trouble, or how Rusty Greer's hip is doing, or how Nomar looks.

Even in the case of rehabbing pitchers, however, we must be careful not to attach too much significance to the numbers. Rehabbing pitchers are generally more concerned with getting their work in and trying out the feel of their breaking pitches again more than really worrying about getting the hitters out, especially early in spring. This can skew their final spring numbers greatly.

I prefer to pay attention to the comments of the managers, coaches, catchers, and the player himself about how he is throwing. Even established pitchers that aren't rehabbing, often use spring training to work on new pitches or try to add new things to their repertoire, or get used to their new catcher, or something to that effect. Mike Mussina, in particular, has had some horrible springs, but I don't see people jumping off that bandwagon.

So what else do we try and take out of Spring Training and what do we just leave there, never to be referred to on draft day?

Don't pay attention to stats from individual games

I have to say the obvious because this is especially important if you are one of those lucky ones that actually attends spring training games. I think Rey Ordonez even once had four hits and two homers in a spring game. I've seen Jeff Bagwell have four K's in a game against pitchers you have never heard of before and never will. If we're saying that the sample size is too small for the entire slate of spring games, guess what we'd be saying about a game or two? Also, generally ignore the batting order.

Do pay attention to battles for positions

The one time spring stats do count is when players are battling for a starting spot. Manager A has named Rookie B his starter at 2B for the season already. If he goes 0-for-Spring, do you think he'll stick with him in the lineup on Opening Day? It's possible, but it's also possible Veteran C gets the job instead because he had a better spring. You get the point. Knowing who is winning the positional battles in the spring helps you with your keepers and with your pre-draft day trading.

Do pay more attention to the news and quotes out of spring than the stats

In the spring of 1999, Corey Koskie was coming off a decent-but-not-great season at Class AAA, .253-19-75-10, with 103 K's and just 41 BB. He still looked like he was going to be a little overmatched at the major league level, especially with those numbers coming in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Mastersball.com's Paul Jones happened to have a conversation at spring training with Paul Molitor, who was helping out the Twins hitters. He was gushing about Koskie's hitting, and how he had improved a lot in the offseason and was ready to contribute right now. While Koskie's spring numbers weren't especially great, I bid $1 on him for my corner infield spot. He wound up making the roster and appeared he would get close to 400 AB resulted in a .309-13-36-4 campaign in 337 times up. I probably don't make that bid without that piece of information from Molitor as I had other "gambles" I could make that I had felt could be better risks.

In the Internet age, you can get tons of reports out of camps. Those are not just fluff that scribes are filling newspaper space with to keep their editors happy. Sometimes they are just "noise," sometimes not.

If you have the opportunity to attend a spring game, eavesdrop as much as you can and sit right behind home plate where the scouts and personnel are. You'd be amazed how much you can pick up.

Do pay attention to the "games finished" stat for unsettled bullpens

In the absence of definitive news from a manager about who his closer to start the season is going to be, pay attention to the games finished stat. In the preseason, that is a better indication of who gets the ball at crunch time when the games are real. Save stats can be diluted by split-squad games and other factors, but as the season gets closer, the eventual closer will start finishing more games, even if there are no save situations.

C'mon, you mean to tell me we can't tell anything more than that from spring training stats?

Well, we first wanted to get you out of the habit of overbidding young players with the hot spring. Instead, your $1 roster fillers that have upside, and ultra or minor league picks that have a better chance of contributing to your team this year, can many times be found in those players that have the good spring, provided they have demonstrated some good skills/stats in the past.

Often times, these players ultimately get sent back to Class AAA, as the big league club would rather they get to play every day than sit on the bench at the major league level. It is important to make the distinction between taking a flyer on a $1 player or minor league pick, versus going close to $10 on a "prospect" based solely a torrid spring, despite the fact his prior numbers indicate that such a good run is probably not sustainable.

Generally, the young player that has the hot spring but can't break the lineup is usually the first player called up when the need arises, as a good spring can open up an organization's eyes.

For fantasy players, spring training gets the juices seriously flowing and builds the anticipation to draft day. Just make sure to use spring training stats as nothing more than another small piece of information to add to your arsenal, and not as a guideline of "these are the sleepers for this year" or "these are the guys on the downswing," and you'll draft a lot better.

Jason Grey is the publisher of The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com, a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion. Their 2002 annual featuring strategy and player profiles as well as their 2002 projections for various game formats are available now. Mastersball.com is a member of the Tout Wars and Major League Baseball's experts leagues.

 

Related information
Stories
Expected ERA: Finding pitchers due to improve SI's Player Value Rankings Rising sons: Yes, you should've seen Ichiro coming
Multimedia
Visit Video Plus for the latest audio and video
Search our site	Watch CNN/SI 24 hours a day
	Sports Illustrated and CNN have combined to form a 24 hour sports news and information channel. To receive CNN/SI at your home call your cable operator or DirecTV.