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NL Report
For guitarists and pitchers, blisters are trouble
Posted: Friday June 14, 2002 4:23 PM
Updated: Friday June 14, 2002 4:39 PM
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Josh Beckett is 2-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 53 2/3 innings. Eliot Schechter/Getty Images |
Let's get to it ...
Josh Beckett's continuing blister problems are a source of concern. These
things can continue to crop up now and then and cause DL stints and
ineffectiveness. Ismael Valdes has been a good example in recent
years. Al Leiter, in particular, is a pitcher who had numerous problems
with blisters early in his career and wound up getting shoulder troubles
due to a combination of stiffness from layoffs, as well as slight
alterations of mechanics to compensate. I'm not saying you need to dump
Beckett or trade him or anything like that, but temper your expectations of his
availability and performance.
It definitely appears that Pat Burrell has finally become, at age 25, the
hitter many people thought he would be. I do not expect any dropoffs in
his performance over the balance of the season. On the contrary, I expect
him to possibly get even better.
Junior Spivey has been a popular "sell high" candidate by many pundits. I
disagree. Spivey's plate discipline has been consistently good this year,
and that is the key. Without seeing drops in his plate discipline we can't
reasonably expect too much of a dropoff in performance. You can be
confident in his production right now.
By the same token, Mark Bellhorn's awful strikeout rate indicates the
bottom is likely to fall out. His playing time may be a bit more
secure with the demotion of Bobby Hill, but if you have him in deep NL leagues
it might be worth trying to see what you can get for him and
take it before his value drops completely.
Speaking of hitters with horrible strikeout rates, let us look at this
generation's Rob Deer or Steve Balboni ... Russell Branyan. The Ben Broussard
deal made absolutely no sense to me, especially when Branyan's best
position is outfield and the glut of outfielders the Reds have
now. Combine that with the fact that I wouldn't trade much of anything,
much less Broussard, for a hitter with his poor rate of contact. He's
worth picking up only if your BA is in the tank to begin with or you have
already opened up a wide margin in the category.
What is it with the Astros and young pitching? They are absolutely
loaded. The latest young gun will get his opportunity next week. Kirk
Saarloos merely put up this numbers in Class AA: 10-1, 1.40 ERA, 83 IP, 82K,
21 BB. Wow. He's as good as they come as far as pitching prospects, but as
with all young hurlers summoned from the minors for the first time, we have
to ask the question: Is he ready yet? You always have to worry about some
of the proverbial "growing pains" that happen with many young pitchers.
However, his potential is immense, and the possibility that he could excel
from the start is enough that contenders and rebuilders alike should take
the chance on him. Especially in keeper leagues, where his acquisition
should be a no-brainer.
Do not look for Kevin Brown to be back in the majors this year. His back
surgery revealed more damage than was anticipated and despite some
optimistic projections, he probably won't be ready to pitch in the majors again until
mid-September. By that time it may be decided that it's better to just
shut him down completely or worry about getting him ready for the playoffs
if the Dodgers are in contention. Either way, we're talking only a few more starts, max.
Mining the minors
Let's finish up by looking at a few minor leaguers
we may possibly see in the majors soon, based on their production and
the needs of the parent ballclub:
Marlon Byrd has recovered from a long May slump to boost his average to .283
with 10 homers. It's still a very real possibility Byrd could close the season as the starting center fielder in Philadelphia. By the way, onetime prospect Eric Valent continues his decline, hitting just .241 with little power.
There's no question that Jack Cust can hit, and that he could probably hit
in the majors right now. However, his defense is so atrocious no matter
where he is on the field, that it is difficult for him to be in a lineup in
the National League on a regular basis. A trade to the American League has
long been rumored, and it was thought he would wind up in Oakland earlier
in the season, but right now he remains in the Rockies farm system. He is
hitting. 274 with an outstanding .433 OBP and has also blasted 15
homers. He's keeping up his end of the bargain, hitting-wise, and it is
scary to think what his Coors potential could be (although he's put up his current numbers at nearby Class AAA Colorado Springs). Bad glove or not, he may hit himself into some playing time with
the big club and he would unquestionably be worth a pickup.
Lyle Overbay is behind Erubiel Durazo and Mark Grace with the Diamondbacks right now,
but he may not be for long. Hitting .346 with 10 homers at Class AAA Tucscon, he clearly is
Arizona's first baseman of the future. If the Diamondbacks continue to
struggle for production out of the first base slot, that future could be closer than we think.
That's it for now. We'll see you on Tuesday for the AL Report.
Jason Grey is the publisher of The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com, a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion. Their 2002 annual featuring strategy and player profiles as well as their 2002 projections for various game formats are available now. Mastersball.com is a member of the Tout Wars and Major League Baseball's experts leagues.
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