Fantasy Mailbag

What's the 411 on Pierre, Foulke, Alou, Santiago and Sheffield?

Juan Pierre's lack of production has hurt the Rockies this year, but fantasy owners appreciate his 24 stolen bases. Tom Hauck/Allsport

You have questions. Fantasy baseball guru Todd Zola has answers. Click here to submit your fantasy query, then check back every Monday for his latest answers.

What’s the deal with Juan Pierre? He can't buy a hit, and if he can't hit, he totally loses his fantasy value. I recently picked up Alex Sanchez, and benched Pierre. Should I try and trade Pierre for a decent starter while I can, or keep him on my bench and wait?
-- John Campbell, Hoboken, N.J.

Even with his paltry on-base percentage of .325, Pierre has swiped 24 bags, so he still has plenty of fantasy value. That being said, the factor that made him such a valuable commodity, and in fact why he topped my preseason NL draft list was his outstanding batting average. His present level of .273 is not horrible, but pales in comparison to the projected levels in the .320 range. Usually at this point, I present an analysis of walk and strikeout rates, but upon studying Pierre’s numbers, something else sticks out and has red flag written all over it.

Please realize I have not had the chance to witness Pierre play at all this year, live or on television so this analysis is strictly numerically based. First off, his home and road splits are significantly different than in past years. Although the non-humidor altered altitude at Coors Field does not favor the slap style of hitting at which Pierre excels, the very spacious outfield does. Last year, he hit .020 higher at home than on the road, which is pretty close to normal wherever you play. So far this year, the difference is .120, which is substantial. Even more alarming is Pierre’s numbers with men on base. With two outs and men on, he is hitting .078 over 51 at-bats! With two outs and men in scoring position, this drops to an astounding .065 over 31 at-bats! In contrast, over his career he has hit .298 and .347 in those identical situations. I am neither a hitting coach nor a psychologist, but I sense someone is pressing with ducks on the pond and getting away from the hitting style they know best. Perhaps this is due to the weak effort from the second spot in Colorado’s order, but nonetheless, Pierre needs to approach these at-bats in the same manner he does when no one is on base. Leading off an inning, he is hitting a robust .366 while hitting .363 with no one on and one out.

Basically, I sense Pierre is playing mind games with himself both on the road and with runners on base. He appears to be trying to drive the ball when he should continue to simply slap at it and let it find holes. This seems like a correctable flaw so I would not remove Pierre from my lineup, especially if the Rockies play the majority of their games at home that week. Trading him however is very decent option. I know if the owners of Pierre in my leagues approached me about acquiring his services, I would definitely listen. Since John has Sanchez to fall back upon, that makes the idea even more appealing. Please realize I am not suggesting trading Pierre because I feel he is losing value and this is a sell-high situation. Rather, I consider this trading from strength to help in another area. Chances are someone in John’s league covets Pierre’s 24 steals, even though they come equipped with no pop and a lower-than-expected batting average.

I was offered Roberto Alomar and Keith Foulke for Eric Gagne and Edgardo Alfonzo. I know Foulke has recently lost the closer role but reading around, people seem to think it will be only short term, I have two questions: Would you take the trade and what do you see Foulke and Alomar doing the rest of the season? Thanks.
-- Alex Santiago, Iselin, N.J.

To cut to the chase, no, I would not take the trade and here is why. The primary principle in the deal is Gagne. Wow, think back to your draft, who would have thought that? Anyway, by primary I mean he is not only the most valuable, but also he is the easiest to predict for the second half. There really are no questions or concerns, other than those associated with any closer. So long as he continues to receive save opportunities, and history suggests he will, he will continue to produce similarly to early 2002. Alfonzo has shown signs of increasing his power, but the questions of both back and hand trouble linger. It is widely assumed Alomar will snap out of his funk and return to the five-category stud level and that Foulke will regain the eye of the tiger and assume closing duties again. In truth, Alomar already has begun the ascent to normalcy, hitting .312 this far in June. My larger concern is with Foulke. This is just a personal hunch, but I am not as convinced as most that Foulke will straighten everything out. A great deal of closing is mental. Here is where I see a crack in the armor. Although many of the rumors have been denied, I believe where there is smoke there is fire and I sense Foulke has been watching the year Derek Lowe has been having and longs for an opportunity to follow in his footsteps and become a starting pitcher. There exist enough similarities in their career paths and style of pitching that render this scenario plausible. I can picture a return to closing for Foulke after the All-Star break, followed by a few more disappointing performances, resulting in a September tryout in the rotation.

The saves Alex might give up by losing Foulke is too big of a chance to take, even if Alomar returns to form and outproduces Alfonzo. I consider Foulke to be the fantasy-baseball equivalent of fool’s gold.

I'm in an AL-only league and am having troubles with my second basemen. I can either get Brent Abernathy, Adam Kennedy, Rey Sanchez, Denny Hocking or Dave Berg. In what order would you rank these players?
-- Peder Swendsrud, Fergus Falls, Minn.

The top choice comes down to Abernathy or Kennedy. With apologies to Sanchez and his hot start previous to hitting the disabled list, the latter three are not on the same level as former two.

Strictly looking at the 2002 numbers, Kennedy has the edge, as he has a higher batting average than Abernathy and has stolen a couple more bases. Their home runs and RBIs are virtually identical. Recently, both Abernathy and Kennedy have encountered minor bumps in the road. Abernathy has been dropped from the two-hole and is batting sixth or seventh while Kennedy has sat versus southpaws.

From a fantasy standpoint, one might assume Abernathy would see a small upward spike in RBIs and score a few fewer runs and steal a fewer less bases. The presence of the recently called up Aubrey Huff should provide some ducks on the pond for Abernathy, but overall, I sense a drop in value. Of course, this is Tampa Bay we are talking about. At this point, the only sure thing is Randy Winn will leadoff. The Devil Rays surely will attempt to move John Flaherty and Greg Vaughn, paving the way for the returns of Toby Hall and Jason Tyner, with the possible promotion of Carl Crawford looming. I can see Abernathy flip-flopping between second and seventh the rest of the year.

With respect to Kennedy and sitting against lefties, the initial reaction is he will lose some value. However, most of Kennedy’s production comes from stolen bases and when batting against right-handers. The minimal drop in counting stats will be more than compensated by the protection of his batting average. His overall value should remain about the same. Chances are, Kennedy will eventually return to full-time duty so this analysis will be rendered moot.

So Peder, my order would be Kennedy, Abernathy, Sanchez (when healthy), Berg and Hocking.

I'm in an AL-only league. I've been offered Carlos Beltran for Nomar Garciaparra. I'm first in the league in average, RBIs and HRs, but I'm in the bottom half in steals. I have Carlos Guillen to play shortstop, if necessary. Should I pull the trigger?
-- Tom Murray, Morrisville, N.C.

One more piece of information is needed to best analyze this deal, and that is what outfielder will Beltran be displacing. For the sake of the answer, it will be assumed that outfielder is roughly the equivalent of the improved Guillen. This way, the comparison breaks down to strictly Beltran versus Garciaparra.

The main reason I selected this question is to remind everyone of the fantastic second half Beltran turned in last year. While he hit a dozen homers pre- and post-All-Star game in 2001, he drove in more runs (57 to 44), stole more bases (21 to 10) and absolutely skyrocketed in batting average (.358 to .263). Thus far in 2002, his line is .262-11-41-17. So Beltran has returned to his first half of 2001 average, but increased his rate of counting stats. The question is, will he have a second half surge in batting average again this year? Looking back to last year, his walk total increased in the second half of the year, while he cut down on the whiffs. The best way to predict how Beltran fares in the second half of this season may be to compare his present walk and strikeout rates to last year. Pre-All-Star game 2001, he walked once every 15.6 plate appearances, while striking out once every 4.8. After the break, he walked once every 10.7 plate appearances and struck out only once every 6.9. So far this year, the good news is his walk rate is identical to the second half of last year, but the bad news is his strikeout rate matches that from the first half. So what does this mean? I will go on record as expecting and improvement in his strikeout rate, but his batting average will not attain the lofty heights it reached last year. This will hardly matter, as a rise in batting average will result in proportionately more counting stats. It would not surprise me if his final line closely resembled that of Alfonso Soriano, settling around .280-32-120-45.

As for Nomar, a splits comparison is difficult as he has either played injured or been out much of the past couple of years. Although he is hitting a solid .328, he has set the bar higher, reaching .372 in 200 and .357 in 1999. There are no obvious after effects from his wrist surgery. The one number that stands out a bit is his uncharacteristic .294 average facing lefties. Garciaparra has owned left-handed pitching to the tune of .386 since 1999. His low average this year is most likely a sample size aberration, which should result in an eventual bump in average into the .340-.350 range. Garciaparra’s power appears to be cut down, perhaps from the injury. However, prior to this year, he has totaled 203 doubles and 129 homers. This year he has struck for a whopping 25 doubles with a somewhat tame eight bombs. It is only a matter of time a few of those eight wall balls he has hit make it over the Green Monster and do not just dent it. I look for Garciaparra to end up with a stat line around .345-25-120-5.

Their relative values will be reasonably close. So the question Tom has to consider is which is more helpful, the batting average from the shortstop or the homers and steals from the outfielder?

I don't know what to do with Moises Alou. I worked so hard to get him in the draft, since over the past few years he has been a reliable producer. However, this season, he seems to be circling the bowl. I'm just nervous about releasing him and then having him turn his season around and put up the numbers I know he can. How long is too long to hang on to a guy like this?
-- Adam Kirsh, Toronto, Ontario

At this point, what one does with Alou is predicated on two factors. First, who is his replacement? Second, in what shape is Adam’s team? We have addressed the theory behind this first issue in the past so let us concentrate on the second. At this point in Alou’s career, he needs to be considered injury-prone. He will produce at a relatively high level when healthy, but he will injure more frequently and take longer to heal. As such, if my team was competitive and in the hunt, I would prefer a more reliable entity than Alou, even if that meant accepting a player with lesser talent. Best-case scenario, Alou can be counted on to hit .310, pop 15 homers and knock in 60 runs. If I remain competitive with a .280-10-40 hitter in his stead, I would be happy to wash my hands of Alou and move on. If I needed the extra production, I would roll the dice.

Look into your crystal ball and tell me this: Will Bret Boone get anywhere near his numbers of last year (37/141/.331), or is he more likely to revert back to his numbers up to last year (20/70/.270)? Also do you think Jacque Jones will continue on his current pace? What about Mike Lowell?
-- Albert Chung, Baltimore

Ah, someone has heard about our three-for-the-price-of-one sale.

Sorry Albert, but I do not need a crystal ball to realize Boone will not approach his MVP-like production of 2001. Last year was a magical season for Seattle, with everyone, especially Boone, feeding off the energy and skills of Ichiro. I would expect Boone to end the season in the .260-22-110-5 range. This is still a useful fantasy season and actually along the lines of what many of us expected.

Jones is not likely to maintain his batting average in the .320s, unless he improves his contact rate. While he is on a pace to set a career high in walks, he is also on a pace to strike out more than ever before. Even so, Jones has led off for all but two games and this is likely to continue, as Minnesota does not have anyone better suited for the role. I anticipate a drop in batting average of about 20 points to the .300 range. The power should not be affected. I would need that crystal ball to help predict if his RBI pace changes, as that is a team-dependent stat as much as a reflection of how a player performs with runners in scoring position. A final stat line in the neighborhood of .300-23-100-12 is not out of the realm of possibility.

Lowell is quietly asserting himself as a fantasy force at the hot corner. Think about this. Since Chipper Jones and Phil Nevin likely will lose their third-base eligibility in 2003 and Scott Rolen may be dealt to the American League, Lowell could be runner-up to Albert Pujols as the top-rated NL 3B. Lowell’s growth is still on the upswing and a season of .320-25-120-3 is reasonable. The high RBI total is mostly dependent upon the likely continued success of Luis Castillo, but could be affected if Cliff Floyd is dealt.

What's up with Benito Santiago? Just when you think this guy is done for, he comes up big for the Giants this year so far, batting almost .300. My fantasy team was struggling at catcher, so I picked him up and he seems to produce almost every night. Do you think he is still underrated?
-- Kyle Moore Covington, Ohio

A few weeks back, I suggested to sell high on former Giant Bobby Estalella. Now I am doing the same for current Giant Benito Santiago. He will not maintain his present level of production. Last year, Santiago hit .287 before the break and .237 after. This year, he is on a pace to catch a similar number of games, but of course is a year older. A similar second-half swoon is expected. What makes this run by present by Santiago so impressive and valuable is his newfound power stroke. While he is unlikely to maintain his current pace of .289-6-34-1, which projects out to 15 HR and 83 RBI, season-ending stats of .265-11-65-2 could happen. This is very acceptable overall production from a catcher, but encompasses a tiring Santiago having a much slower second half. I would look for a younger catcher not so prone to tire.

What's the deal with Gary Sheffield? I know he has been battling injuries all year long, but even so, his stats are still troublesome. Do you think he'll bounce back, even though it seems like he's chasing bad pitches and is getting impatient at the plate? Also, which player would you prefer on your team: At catcher, Damian Miller or Geronimo Gil, and at third base, Shea Hillenbrand or Eric Hinske? All of them are available and I need major help in those positons. Thanks in advance!
-- Vladimir Gusiletov, Miami

You see, I told you we had a three-for-one special.

Patience in Sheffield is presently, and will continue to be, rewarded. He has hit .444-2-7-1 this past week and should continue to make pitchers pay for his slow start. His walk rate has picked up as well. Perhaps he was pressing trying to impress his new teammates and has settled into a more relaxed state of mind or perhaps the hamstring is healed and so has his swing.

I would prefer Miller to Gil at catcher primarily because I prefer to dance with the devil I know, as opposed to the devil I don’t know.

Your third-base question is intriguing. I truly believe Hillenbrand has turned the corner and will produce at a level similar to Joe Randa with a bit more pop. Hinske is the leading candidate for the AL Rookie of the Year. His success, as compared to that of Hank Blalock, Carlos Pena, Toby Hall, Bobby Hill, Sean Burroughs and Morgan Ensberg likely emanates from being a bit older and coming up through the very plate-discipline oriented Oakland system. The one caveat I see with Hinske is a drop in production if the Blue Jays carry out their rumored fire sale. As such, my choice for the rest of 2002 is Hillenbrand.

Todd Zola is a writer for The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com. a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion. Mastersball.com is a member of the Tout Wars and Major League Baseball's experts leagues.

 

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