|
|
Fantasy File
Pitch counts critical in determining future performance
Posted: Thursday June 20, 2002 2:30 PM
Jeff Weaver is second in the majors in pitches thrown. |
By James Quintong, CNNSI.com
Many fantasy owners like to look at innings pitched to determine how dependable a starting pitcher can be. In an era where teams often use two setup men before reaching the closer, pitchers who can pile up 200-plus innings and put up quality stats are very valuable. And many fantasy owners know that young pitchers who see major leaps in their innings pitched from one year to the next often throw up red flags because all that work will come back to haunt them the next season.
But something that often gets overlooked in determining pitchers' workload is number of pitches. Some pitchers can get through a complete game in just 80-90 pitches, and others labor through 110-115 just to get through six or seven, yet both could put up very similar numbers (at least ERA and wins-wise). On a start-to-start or week-to-week basis, this type of workload can have a major effect on future starts and your team.
Much like young pitchers can be hurt by throwing too many innings over the course of a season, too many starts of 100-plus pitches can take their toll on youngsters as well. Even veteran pitchers who pile up the pitches like Randy Johnson can get hurt if they throw too much over the course of a few starts.
Before we look at pitchers who could be risks for a downfall because of increased workload, there are a few things to consider about high pitch counts. First off, strikeout pitchers will always have higher pitch counts. It takes at least three pitches to get a guy on a strikeout, where it takes just one pitch to get other outs.
You can also get some early warning signs by taking a look at WHIP/ERA correlation as my colleague Jason Grey has described. Pitchers allowing plenty of baserunners but not many runs are likely throwing extra pitches to put runners on, then struggling to keep them off the scoreboard. You can get away with it once or twice a game, but doing it multiple times can wear a pitcher down.
Finally, pitchers consistently putting up 110- or 120-pitch games are probably pitching well enough to stay in the game. But it's more of a problem if a pitcher is throwing 100-110 pitches over just five or six innings. That says just as much as a pitcher throwing 125-130 pitches over eight or nine innings.
Here are a handful of pitchers who could raise the red flags because of their recent heavy workload, especially pitch counts. Really young pitchers are the ones at risk. Veterans like Johnson, Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens and Tom Glavine (all among the league leaders in pitches thrown) have all built enough durability over the years not to be affected by high workload, unless their pitch counts reach the 140-150 mark.
Jeff Weaver, Tigers: Currently second in the majors in total number of pitches (1,689), he has thrown fewer than 100 pitches just once all year (75 in four innings against the Phillies on June 7). His high workload reached a head Tuesday when he threw 131 pitches in a shutout of the Braves. Weaver is used to the high workload, averaging nearly 215 innings the past two seasons, and has stayed healthy. However, you have to wonder when the roof will cave in. Right now he's pitching very well and proving to be one of the better workhorses in the league, but don't say I didn't warn you.
Joe Kennedy, Devil Rays: While his numbers have stabilized a bit to a solid four ERA and 1.22 WHIP, Kennedy has been throwing a lot more pitches. In four starts this month, he's averaging more than 117 pitches per start, including 127 against the Giants on Tuesday. However, Kennedy isn't much of a strikeout pitcher (just 12 in his last 30 1/3 innings), but he's not walking many, either (six in that same time frame). This increased work may have an effect in the next couple of starts, so be a bit careful. Kennedy is still turning into a solid pitcher.
A.J. Burnett, Marlins: Burnett has arguably been the most consistent starter on the staff this season, but he's also racked up a lot of work. He's reached the 120-pitch mark five times, including a season-high 128 last Saturday in a complete-game win over the Devil Rays. His numbers have crept up after an excellent start, although he has won his last two decisions. Health has been a concern for some of the young Florida pitchers, and Burnett is no stranger to that. He may have to scale back his workload a bit if he is to maintain his numbers.
Mark Prior, Cubs: The team has done a good job of keeping Prior's workload to a minimum and not wearing out his prized arm so quickly. He was shut down after throwing tons of innings during USC's College World Series run and so far he hasn't gone more than seven innings in any start. However, with Prior being a strikeout pitcher, the pitches will pile up. In that seven-inning start against the Mariners, he threw 124 pitches (but did strike out 11 and allowed no runs to get the win). In Wednesday's start against the Rangers, he labored for 107 pitches in just five innings before getting the hook. Prior's arm at this stage is a bit more mature than Kerry Wood's, so there may be less risk of injury. But be prepared for Prior to struggle at times, not just because of growing pains, but because of a tired arm.
Joel Pineiro, Mariners: His workload is increasing slowly but surely as he establishes himself in the Seattle rotation. He's broken the 100-pitch barrier in each of his four starts this month, although he threw a very efficient 105 pitches in a complete-game win over the Cardinals on June 12, after a 123-pitch outing the start before. Right now, he's paced himself well enough so that the increased workload won't affect his game too much.
Brandon Duckworth, Phillies: I really want to be high on him, considering all the strikeouts he's piling up. However, his other numbers still haven't caught up with him, especially his WHIP numbers. He strikes out plenty of batters and is walking about two batters a game, which helps inflate his pitch count. Add the fact that he's allowing about a hit an inning, and he's getting himself in trouble a bit too often. While throwing 124 pitches over eight innings isn't too bad, putting up pitch counts in the 110 range over just six innings is a cause for concern. He looks to have plenty of upside, though, if he can keep runners off base.
Livan Hernandez, Giants: Ever since he joined the league, he's been a major workhorse, consistently putting up 200-inning seasons as well as 125-pitch starts. He's been a bit stubborn with his work, and all of this use may account for some of his struggles the past couple of years. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters, but he does allow plenty of hits and walks. After an outstanding April, Hernandez has come back to earth and, oddly enough, his pitch count has increased as he's gotten worse. He threw 122 pitches in an Opening Day win, but didn't throw more than 110 the rest of the month while going 4-2. After throwing 114 in 6 1/3 innings against the Reds on May 5, he's struggled badly. At the same time, he's put up three straight outings of at least 120 pitches, going 1-2 in those starts. He only had 72 pitches in his last start, but that's because he only went 2 2/3 innings, giving up seven runs. You should've already sold high on Hernandez because it looks like he's regressing back to the pitcher he was last season as opposed to the one who shined at the end of 2000.
James Quintong is Fantasy Sports Producer at CNNSI.com. He's trying to keep his word count down to avoid struggling in his next column.
|
Copyright © 2003 CNN/Sports Illustrated, an AOL Time Warner Company and Sportsline.com Inc. All Rights Reserved. Terms under which this service is provided to you. Read our privacy guidelines. |
|
