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Fantasy Mailbag
Who's for real? Try Burrell, Anderson and Gagne
Posted: Monday June 24, 2002 4:42 PM
Pat Burrell appears poised to shatter his career high of 27 homers. |
You have questions. Fantasy baseball guru Todd Zola has answers. Click here to submit your fantasy query, then check back every Monday for his latest answers.
Hey Todd. I am currently starting Sammy Sosa and Torii Hunter on my team, but I can't decide whom to put in the last OF spot. I have Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell, but I'm worried about whether they will continue to produce as they have thus far this season. I have been lingering on two options: Play Dunn or Burrell, or trade one or both of them for a guy like Vladimir Guerrero, Larry Walker, or Brian Giles. Thanks for your opinion.
--Michael Dreveny, Chicago
To start off, it would likely take both Burrell and Dunn to get Guerrero. Of Giles, Dunn and Burrell, Giles is the most proven and consistent thus would be my choice. If you could pull that off, go for it.
The main reason I have opted to answer this question is to use it as a platform for doing a little analysis of Pat Burrell, a common inquiry amongst those submitting questions. Most want to know if Burrell is for real. Hey, so do I!
In his first two seasons, Burrell was a .259 hitter. In 2002, he is dancing with the magical .300 mark. Glancing at his strikeout stats, those are still high. However, a major improvement is present in his walk rate. Before this year his BB/K ratio was .44. This year, he has improved it to .58. In English, he is still striking out a whole lot, but he is taking more walks. He has a decent plate discipline but needs to make more contact.
His power numbers have risen at a rate faster than would be expected just because of an improved batting average. There are two primary indicators backing an increase in homers. First, as a player’s body matures, doubles turn into homers. Second, a player’s ground ball-to-fly ball ratio reflects an increase in fly balls hit. In Burrell’s case, his doubles total has increased in sync with his homer total, and his ratio is the same as in the past. Thus, to me this is indicative of an overall maturation of Burrell as a hitter. All in all, I envision a drop on batting average for Burrell, but the power spike is real. His average should settle in the low .280s, but he has definite 40 HR power and could reach that plateau this year. As such, I do not consider Burrell a sell-high candidate, but I would look to acquire him from an owner that solely judges him on his high strikeout rate.
Is Ruben Sierra going to stop playing with the return of Edgar Martinez?
--John Jacos, Brandon, Manitoba
Sierra is likely to lose a few at bats but will continue to be a fantasy contributor. Be aware Martinez has already experienced pain in the area of his recovering left knee. Since all games are presently being played in NL parks, check Tuesday to see if Martinez returns to his customary role as Seattle's designated hitter. At the very least, Sierra will spell Martinez some at DH, along with sharing left field with Mark McLemore. The ability of Desi Relaford to sub for the slumping Jeff Cirillo indirectly affects the playing time of Sierra, as McLemore would have filled in at third, keeping Sierra in left. Also to be considered in the mix is the hand injury to Carlos Guillen, as either Relaford or McLemore could be pressed into action at shortstop.
Sierra is a notorious streak hitter. He had a smoking April in terms of batting average but with limited production. In May, his average fell off but his run production improved. June has been solid for both. Expect Mariner’s skipper Lou Piniella to go with the hot hand and that means he will ride the streaky Sierra for as long as he can.
I'm in a 5x5 roto-league where I ended up with a less-than-stellar pitching staff. I've cobbled together the following group: Starting pitching includes: Rick Reed--MIN, A.J. Burnett--FLA, Wade Miller--HOU, Jamie Moyer--SEA, Odalis Perez--LA, Andy Pettitte--NYY. Relief includes: Esteban Yan--TB, T.J. Tucker--MON, Francisco Cordero--TEX. I've just been grasping at straws with the relievers (ala Tucker and Cordero. I carried Matt Herges--MON for a while as well.) Any recommendations on who to keep and/or who to deal or drop from the starters? I have a limited number of innings available for the season, and all this starting pitching is chewing 'em up. I could use help in the saves, WHIP and ERA categories.
--Keith Slawson, Seattle
Well Keith, a lot depends if you have liberal use of a reserve list. I will answer the question as if you do and do not.
If you do not have the luxury of placing players on reserve, then I would look to keep my pitchers that accumulate the most strikeouts, as this is 5x5. Burnett, Miller and Perez head this list. Moyer is definitely too good to just drop, so try to deal him. There is usually at least one overzealous Yankee fan in every league, so look to pawn Pettitte off on that poor soul. Rick Reed is currently on a bit of a warm streak so he may he trade-worthy as well.
If you are able to bounce players up and down from reserves, then continue to troll the waivers for speculative closers just as you are doing. As the proud owner of “Spaceman’s Funky Flakes” in my local Bill Lee Memorial League, I have the same problem you do -- I am on a pace to exceed our maximum innings. As indicated, I can reserve players, so what I have decided to do is only start my secondary starting pitchers when they have a very favorable matchup and load up my staff with anything that both breathes and has a chance for a save. In recent weeks, I have added Blaine Neal, Dave Veres, Cordero and Anthony Telford. Other possibilities include Chad Bradford, Luis Vizcaino, Damaso Marte, Octavio Dotel, Scott Sullivan, Arthur Rhodes and Cory Bailey. These guys will all help protect ERA and WHIP, while adding a couple Ks, wins and maybe even a save or two.
What's the deal with Eric Karros? He usually has decent power stats, but his average this year is around .320. Do you think he will continue this production or will be drop down as I was hoping to use him as a replacement for Florida first baseman Derrek Lee, because he seems to have cooled down? Good idea?
--Kevin Horn, Waterloo, Ontario
Truthfully Keith, I do not think that is such a good idea. I would stick with Derrek Lee. I do not really think Lee has cooled down appreciably. Based on a decent finish to 2001 and his approaching that magical age of 27, many pegged Lee for 30 dingers and 90 ribbies, and he is right on track. His batting average is close to his career level, but below his three-year average. Both his strikeout and walk pace is greater than last year. The improved walk rate bodes well if he could improve his contact rate even slightly.
Karros is experiencing a rejuvenation of sorts, fighting his way “back” from an injury-riddled 2001. From 1995-2000, Karros was one of the easier fantasy performers to project. Book him for 30 homers and 100 knocked in, sit back and enjoy. A back injury suffered in early spring training workouts last year sapped away much, if not all, of Karros’ effectiveness. To his credit, he worked extremely hard in the offseason and reported to camp this year in great shape. As Kevin points out, Karros is hitting for a decent average, but it is empty because he is not adding the production expected out of a player hitting out of the 5-hole much of the year. There is little reason to believe his average will stay above .300. I would prefer to roll the dice with Lee, a player still on the upswing, than Karros, an aging veteran showing signs of decline.
With Jim Edmonds back in center, how much do you think Eli Marrero is going to play? In a weak year for catchers, he has some of the best numbers and is a great running catcher.
--Eb Samuel, Brodheadsville, Pa.
To open, I am not sure this is a weak year for catchers, but more that the top-end catchers are performing below par while the lower-end receivers are having better-than-predicted years. Overall, production is about normal.
At last check, I had Marrero the third-rated catcher, just behind only Jorge Posada and Mike Piazza, and well ahead of Damian Miller, Paul Lo Duca and Scott Hatteberg. As Eb implies, the only way he will maintain this level is if he continues to play regularly. He’s picked up 38 at-bats at catcher, five at first base, 47 at left field, 16 at right field and 56 in center while subbing for Edmonds. The last represents the largest chunk, a smidge over one third of his total. Before Edmonds' stint on the disabled list, Marrero was seeing a lot of duty in left with Albert Pujols playing third. When Marrero was not in left, Pujols would play there with Placido Polanco covering the hot corner. Marrero is on a pace for over 400 plate appearances and that should continue. If there is an injury to anyone on the team, then that approaches 500. So in short, I do not expect the return of Edmonds to alter the playing time of Marrero significantly. Over the course of the year, something else will happen and he will be there to pick up the slack.
I have been very pleasantly surprised with the production of Kenny Lofton this season, especially because I picked him up late in my draft. I have seen his numbers slip a little lately and he has been getting injured more often. Should I keep him starting on my team hoping he will keep it up, or should I trade him for someone who usually does well in the second half of the season like Carlos Beltran?
--Dave Smith, San Diego
Setting your sites on Beltran may be a bit high, but yes, I consider Lofton to be a sell-high candidate. Right now, Lofton is a top 10 outfielder. Since the lion’s share of that is due to stolen bases, and injuries will force a serious reduction in his stolen base pace, his value will soon begin to dwindle. Personally, I would seek out someone deficient in steals but healthy in power and look to work a deal from that angle. Perhaps target Garret Anderson (see below) or Brian Giles.
I'm currently 5th in my league and I really need help with stolen bases. I had Roger Cedeno earlier but I had to drop him because of his lack of production. I'm still looking for a guy that will produce runs and steal bases for me. In what order would you rank Alex Sanchez, Dave Roberts, David Eckstein, and Randy Winn. I would love to hear who you think will continue their productions.
--Bobby Kwan, Honolulu
Well Bobby, that is quite an interesting list. I am a little unsure if produce runs means scores them or knocks them in or both. Presently, Roberts is on a pace to steal the most bases, Eckstein to score the most runs and Winn to knock the most in. Of the four, I am most confident that Eckstein will remain on his current pace, followed by Winn, Sanchez and Roberts. This is not an indictment of the latter three, but more a reflection of my believing in Eckstein. Winn has surprised many pundits, present company included. Roberts and Sanchez have seemingly come out of nowhere, but both had decent base-stealing skills and apparently just needed the opportunity to express those skills on the field on a regular basis.
OK, Fantasy Guru, quit stalling. For overall production, I favor Winn. For scoring the most runs with a decent amount of steals, choose Eckstein. If you need to roll the dice and play the highest-risk, highest-reward route, opt for Roberts. I am not convinced he will maintain this pace of batting .300 with more than 50 steals, but if he does, you will get the greatest bang for your buck.
I need to know who the odd man out here is: Jeff D'Amico, Jason Schmidt, Jeff Weaver or A.J. Burnett? I have to drop one of these guys soon with the impending returns of Orlando Hernandez and Josh Beckett. I'm in a 5x5 mixed roto league, and have been hearing a lot of trade rumors about Weaver, which, if traded would definitely skyrocket his value. Jeff D'Amico's inconsistency scares me, and I have been leaning that way, what do you think?
--Brian Seeman, San Diego
OK, Brian, here are my suggestions. Look to deal El Duque, whose name has always exceeded his true fantasy value. If you need to make another deal, consider Weaver. While you are correct that his name has surfaced in trade talks, it is a misconception his value would skyrocket if dealt to a contender. It would have a positive effect for sure, but the only category affected would be wins. Wins are unpredictable to say the least. Recall Roger Clemens 20-1 start last year? Many an owner acquired him late only to see him lose two games versus Tampa Bay. Use this myth to your advantage to pump up the value of Weaver and get back more than you rightfully should. With respect to D’Amico, do not fret too much; his health is his main issue. His WHIP of 1.064 correlates to an ERA closer to 2.40 than his present mark of 4.17. This usually indicates better days lie ahead for those who are patient.
Hey Todd, Garret Anderson or Adam Dunn? I don’t need the walks, so I've been leaning towards Anderson. What are your thoughts?
--Tyler Griggs, Longmeadow, Mass.
Hey Tyler, can I have both?
I chose this question primarily to point out Garrett Anderson rocks. He is one of the quietest fantasy producers going. His decent batting average is even more valuable because, as Tyler mentions, he doesn’t walk and thus accumulates a very high number of at-bats. In terms of pure value, both are in lower end of the top 20 outfielders. If I needed a few more homers, I would take Dunn. If I needed a little batting average stabilization, Anderson is the man.
I have an option to pick up a closer in my fantasy league. I can choose Eric Gagne or Jason Isringhausen. Who do you think will finish out the season as the better closer?
--Mike Johnston, New Brighton, Pa.
Hey Mike, can I have both?
I chose this question primarily to point out Eric Gagne rocks.
OK, seriously, my answer is Gagne primarily because Isringhausen is a bit of an injury risk, and St. Louis has a plethora of decent reserve closers to pick up the slack.
But before I go, I would like to make a couple quick points.
Gagne is scary. I had the pleasure of seeing him on TV as a closer for the first time this weekend. He looks like something out of the “Major League” movies. His hat is old and gnarly, he looks in at the batter wearing goofy goggles and his uniform looks like pajamas. His strikeout-to-walk rate is Eckersley-like. There is no reason to believe he will not continue to rack up the saves.
Finally, one of my favorite trade tactics this time of year is to deal a closer of perceived higher value. Specifically, if I am comfortable in saves and can afford to deal a closer, I prefer to deal a first tier one than a second tier one, as I likely can bilk more in return. As the season wears on, the relative difference in value between closers shrinks to a point where losing either will have an identical effect on the standings. If dealing a closer is going to cost me two points in saves whether I deal Trevor Hoffman or Jose Mesa, I keep Mesa and deal Hoffman to maximize my return. So in relation to Mike’s question, if there were no injury threat with Isringhausen, I may have suggested dealing the more valuable Gagne. This is a technique I call managing statistics. This method becomes more important as the season wears on thus will undoubtedly become a common theme in future mailbags.
Todd Zola is a writer for The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com. a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion. Mastersball.com is a member of the Tout Wars and Major League Baseball's experts leagues.
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