Grey Matter

Strategies, tips, and other ideas for better drafting

Aramis Ramirez is coming off a disappointing season in which he hit .234 over 522 at-bats. Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

By Jason Grey, Special to SI.com

Fantasy followers are being inundated with draft tips and strategies at this point in the year, so … why not me as well? Actually, I’m half kidding.

In this column, let’s go over some off-the-beaten path tips that might prove helpful, and some tips that go against "established" fantasy wisdom.

The Disney Method

This is coined after Walt Disney’s philosophy of hiring actors for his live action movies. He would get proven, talented actors coming off a flop, as they would be eager to get their career jump-started again, and would come at a lower price.

Translated to baseball, you get some guys that have proven themselves coming off of bad years. (i.e., Darin Erstad 2000, Aramis Ramirez this year) Prices are likely to be depressed and they can bring some nice value for you.

Great related story: In his book Mad as Hell, Mike Lupica relates a hilarious story about Tony Phillips, who was having a great season one year, after a dismal performance the previous one. Dick Schaap wanted an interview, and Phillips exploded, saying Schaap had ignored him the rest of his career: "You’re like the rest of the front-runners, coming around now that I’m doing good." To which Schaap responded: "You wanted me to come around when you were hitting .203?" Sometimes, though, it can pay to come around when the hitter has just hit .203.

Breakouts often come from guys who failed the first time around in the league.

Many a championship was won in 1997 with the emergence of Tigers 2B Damion Easley (.264-22-72-28), who seemingly came out of nowhere after washing out in his first stint with the Angels. Yes, I am still reminiscing on my pick that year, what of it?

Glendon Rusch failed miserably in K.C. before helping win some fantasy championships in the Big Apple in 2000. Luis Gonzalez certainly didn’t set the world on fire in Detroit before breaking out in Arizona. Prospects are often rushed (like Aramis Ramirez), but that doesn’t mean they still won’t be good players. Need more examples?

How about Bob Abreu, Brian Giles and Roger Cedeno?

These type of players who washed out, so to speak, are usually not sought after or valued highly. If you are using good evaluation and pricing techniques, this won’t be a problem for you.

Throw out your lower-ranked pitchers early

I haven’t had a lot of personal experience with this one, but it sounds intriguing. The idea is that you know the maximum amount of pitchers that are going to be drafted (e.g. 10-team league with nine pitchers per team = 90).

You would then rank your pitchers from 1-90, and depending on your strategy of money allocation to pitching, you would then start tossing out the lower names from 90 on up. In most cases, you will get $2 bids, and if you don’t, no big deal, as you would have probably grabbed them at a $1 at the end of the draft anyway.

What you are attempting to do is foster the slide of some of the better pitchers down to the endgame to snag them cheap, because teams will have been filling up their pitcher slots, not wanting to let a decent $2 pitcher go by. Interesting concept, and I’d welcome your feedback if you have any experience with it. I've heard of some success with it.

Don’t be afraid to corner categories

If the situation warrants, and bargains are available, don’t hesitate to grab more steals or saves or whatever, especially if you are a good trader. "Draft for value, trade for balance," as the saying goes. You can always deal your excess for what you need later. Of course, don’t win categories in a runaway, that’s just being stupid, but don’t pass up good bargains because you think you have all you need in a category.

CAVEAT: Steals and saves, especially, lose trade value the more the year goes on. Make your trading moves earlier in these categories.

The auction is like a card game

Just like poker, players have "tells," as well as auction trends, habits and strategies. Absorb everything for use down the road.

Find certain players that certain owners like, drafting strategies, that sort of thing. Do they like to draft a lot of speed? Do they punt saves? When analyzing how the auction is going to go, see if the certain owners overvalue rookies, or how much of a premium do the "hometown" guys get (like how much extra do the Red Sox go for in a Boston league). Will guys run out of player names on their draft list and just get the lowliest scrub on the home team roster, and open up a $1 bargain for you?

If all else fails, follow what the winning players are doing

There are certain people that are in the money almost every season in your league. If you’re having trouble staying competitive, learn from them. See what they do in the auction, and worst-case scenario, bid when they bid. By trying to parallel your auction with his, you can hopefully improve your auction aptitude, not to mention bug the heck out of the other guy, which can be fun in its own way.

You always have to be careful about the good players purposely bidding you up, but every so often you can clam up and stick them with someone they though you were going to go higher on. I lost out on Chris Carpenter of the Blue Jays in 1998 in one league in the endgame, when I was pretty sure I was going to snag him for the $1 I had left.

After I said, "Chris Carpenter -- $1," one other owner asked, "Who does he play for?" (Granted, it wasn’t the most competitive of leagues.) Someone said, "Toronto." "Oh well, if Jason wants him then he must be worth $2, so I’ll bid $2." There you go. I wound up getting him later in a trade for just Mike Benjamin, but that’s another story.

If you're joining an established league, get previous year's rosters (Opening Day), so you can see how values have been in the past. Hey, you may not win, but you will have a good time seeing someone get more and more annoyed.

 

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