Fantasy Mailbag

Let's make a deal: 10 tips on how to make a trade

J.D. Drew has not played more than 135 games in a season. Harry How/Allsport

You have questions. Fantasy baseball guru Todd Zola has answers. Click here to submit your fantasy query, then check back every Monday for his latest answers.

Hi, gang! We're coming at you from Chicago this weekend, fresh out of the Tout Wars drafts. Check out the results at www.toutwars.com. Let’s jump right into your questions.

What do you think about J.D. Drew this year? He's part of a great lineup with the Cardinals, but he had a down year. I was about to pick him up off the waiver wire for Trot Nixon, but I need to know if he is expected to do well or expected to falter. Thank you!
-- Kevin Horn, Waterloo, Ontario

When healthy, Drew can be an electric performer. Therein lies the problem. He has never been able to amass more than 425 at-bats in his four full seasons. Drew’s 2003 season debut already was going to be delayed as he recovers from offseason knee surgery, but it is now further complicated by a cranky back. While a healthy Drew likely would outproduce Nixon, I would suggest sticking with the more stable Nixon. Expect Nixon’s power to be equal to be last year’s, with a return to the .280 level with his batting average.

What do you see coming out of Raul Ibanez this year? Last year I picked him up just in time to get his .300, 19 doubles, 14 homers and 63 RBI in the second half. Is it worth picking him up this year? If yes, how high a pick would he be worth?
-- Dan Newman, Dunellen, N.J.

While Ibanez is certainly worth picking up this year, expecting him to sustain his 2002-second half production over the entire 2003 season may be a bit too greedy. He certainly had a magical post-All-Star break run, but expectations should be tempered. A solid season with 20-something homers with 90 or so RBI is acceptable. This places Ibanez in the top 15 to 18 first basemen in the majors, top eight in the American League. What round he should be selected in depends entirely on the size and format of your league.

Will Byung-Hyun Kim really be a starter this year? With Matt Mantei having some real question marks about his arm, why would Bob Brenly make this move?
-- George Houser, Youngstown, Ohio

Kim is indeed heading for the rotation, as he is winning the battle with Miguel Batista for the fifth spot in the desert. Questions still remain as to whether Kim could be counted on as a stopper in pressure situations. There is precedent with Billy Koch for Tommy John-surgery returnees having success as closers, so it makes sense for Brenly to return Matt Mantei to his old role. Expect some rough outings early, but Mantei should be able to keep the job. Waiting in the wings are Mike Koplove and Mike Myers in case Mantei falters or gets hurt. As for Kim as a starter, while it is common to suggest he has the type of motion that hitters can catch up to the second and third time they see him, he is just wild enough that batters may not dig in against him. There is some concern as to his stamina, but Kim should enjoy some early-season success as a starter.

I play in a 5x5 league and I traded Luis Gonzalez, Junior Spivey and Joe Crede for Vernon Wells, Luis Castillo and Kevin Millwood. What do you think Vernon Wells could do in his second full season, and will he make up for the loss of Gonzalez?
-- Tim Chapman, Las Vegas

While Wells alone will not make up for the loss of Gonzalez, the deal is a very interesting one. You give up some power production for a solid pitcher and stolen bases. Wells should be the AL version of the NL’s Juan Encarnacion. His athletic ability will help overcome his lack of plate patience. Fortunately, he does not strike out an overwhelming amount, so his low walk rate is masked a bit. Unless he improves his plate discipline, Wells will not reach the next level, but he is still a very viable fantasy player. A repeat of last season with a small increase in steals is not out of the question.

I have one outfield slot and a utility slot open. Who out of the four players should I start: Brian Jordan, Mark Kotsay, Bubba Trammell or Fernando Tatis? Also what kind of year do you think Orlando Hernandez will have? Thanks.
-- Ronnie Wells, Madisonville, Ky.

For the outfielder and utility, Kotsay and Jordan are the clear-cut choices. The unfortunate injury to Phil Nevin may impact Kotsay’s production, but he will still turn in his solid-but-unspectacular, little-of-everything season. Jordan will not be mistaken for Cal Ripken, but he likely has played more games the past five seasons than one intuitively believes. Trammell is an interesting player, as he someday will turn in a season not unlike Karim Garcia and Raul Ibanez did last year, but it is not wise to go out on a limb and declare, “This is the year.”

Due to bad judgment on my part, I ended up drafting four third basemen to fill my 3B, utility and two of three bench spots. My players are Joe Crede, Eric Hinske, Hank Blalock and Aramis Ramirez. I am in a 10-team 5X5 rotisserie league. I am thinking of playing Crede at utility and Hinske at third, but should I dangle the others as trade bait or will they suffice as bench players?
-- James Walker, Philadelphia

James, your choice of active players looks sound. My suggestion is to have a little fun and try to deal Hinske and move Ramirez into his spot. I say Hinske because you most likely will get back the greatest value for him. Ramirez is an excellent candidate for a rebound. If you can afford to sit on Blalock for a while, I recommend doing that and then dealing another third baseman when he re-establishes himself as a fantasy entity.

Can you give us some advice on how to conduct trades? I've dealt with owners who judge player value very differently from most owners in our leagues. How do you approach making deals that work?
-- Jim Cushing, Springfield, Mass. Ah yes, trade theory, one of my favorite topics. Here are Todd’s Top Ten Trade Tricks.

1. Do not be afraid to win a trade. While this may seem like simple advice, for some reason, people are often embarrassed to get the better end of the deal, as many times the perception is you are putting one over on your friend. Most leagues have mechanisms in place to govern deals. You are not afraid to draft better than a buddy. You are not ashamed to make better free agent pickups, so why be concerned about bettering a pal in a deal? Nothing stops you from beating them on the tennis court or golf course; why should a fantasy baseball trade be any different?

2. Early in the season, establish a friendly relationship with any owner you do not know. It is human nature to want to deal with whom you're comfortable. Perhaps we feel there is less of a chance of being fleeced. The point is, get to know everyone in your league. Find out who their favorite teams are and talk about them. Ask them how their brackets are looking in the Big Dance. Establish a rapport with them and you will find it much easier to talk trade as the year progresses.

3. Do not get insulted by an obvious low-ball offer to the point that you ostracize them and limit your assets. There are precious few opportunities to improve your squad after the draft. No matter how insulted you may feel about a ridiculous offer sent your way, do not limit your options and cease dealing with that person. As a matter of fact, these are the individuals that you often end up exploiting in a trade. It is my personal observation that the majority of low-ball offers come from parties not confident in their ability to judge talent and negotiate a deal. The putrid offer is much like a defense mechanism on their end. On your end, call their bluff and use it as an icebreaker. You will often find this person very eager to deal as others have inevitably stopped talking to them. Do not turn the offer around and offer something as equally ridiculous, but do table something decidedly in your favor. Often, the simple act of countering catches the other person off guard and leads to an advantageous deal.

4. Keep discussions going. In other words, negotiate, negotiate, negotiate. If you are unable to find common grounds this time, don't sweat it. Always end talks cordially, with a declaration of how enjoyable the discussions were even though they did not lead to a deal, and suggest that things may be different next time.

5. No one is untouchable. Every player has to have a price. You never know just how much someone else covets your property. In your head, a player may be off the market, but it makes no sense to let your opponents know that. On the flip side, if someone else labels a player as not up for trade and you really want that player and believe you have a fair deal to offer, do it. What is the worst thing that can happen? They decline, big deal.

6. Always consider the swap from the point of view of your opponent. Why is it good for them? It takes two to tango and both sides need to agree to consummate a deal. Do not hesitate to point out why an offer you are making is fair.

7. When making an offer, give choices. This is a fantastic way to appear to be giving up control and letting the other party dictate the proceedings. In fact, you are still in control as you were the one who established the choices.

8. Do not get bullied into accepting a deal before you have had a chance to conduct your due diligence. If faced with a “take it or leave it” offer that you are not comfortable accepting, then “leave it.” More often than not, there is a reason your opponent has chosen this route, and the reason is never to help you.

9. Early in the season, look to collect value, even if it is at a position or category where you really do not need help. This just arms you with more ammunition for later in the year when the objective becomes to trade for standings points. While the common idiom is to trade from strength to improve weakness, I prefer to consider it trading from an area in which you can lose minimal points to improve in an area in which you can gain maximum points. There is a significant difference. You may be at the bottom of a category (in theory a weakness) but are unable to move up while you near the top of another category (a perceived strength) but still have points to gain. The play is to trade out of the “so-called” weakness to improve what seems to be a strength.

10. Treat trading as a tool. It is perfectly OK to “like to trade,” but trading should be a means of improving your squad, not the primary reason for participating in the hobby. Sometimes being overly rambunctious is more a hindrance than a help.

I just had my draft today, and with my last two picks, 20 and 21, I took Chan Ho Park and Jeff Zimmerman. I couldn't find any info about Zimmerman, so I was wondering if you had any news on his health and/or situation with the Rangers this season. And also what do you think Park's chances are of bouncing back this season.
-- Greg Ralph, Ottawa

Do not expect Zimmerman to return until after the All-Star break, likely not until late August or early September. Since Ugueth Urbina is only signed to a one-year deal, Zimmerman may have an opportunity to regain his old job as bullpen stopper in 2004. As is, he may join Francisco Cordero in a setup role sometime during the second half of 2003.

Honestly, I am not high on Park’s chances to rebound this season. I understand he was injured last season and he showed signs of regaining his form late, but I have a hard time believing he can keep his ERA below 5.00 and a WHIP below 1.50. While I am normally a proponent of choosing starting pitching over middle relief, Park is not a favorite. His road splits while in the National League were not favorable and his style of pitching is not conducive to success in Texas. He walks too many hitters and gives up too many home runs.

Todd Zola is a writer for The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com. a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion.

 

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