AL Report

Sleepers, or maybe not ... well, they could be

Jerry Hairston might be a cheap source of stolen bases. Doug Pensinger /Allsport

By Jason Grey, Special to SI.com

A sleeper in one league may be a well-known commodity in the next. Someone that one league undervalues may be someone that is overbid in another. A sleeper in a 12-team mixed league is not the same as a sleeper in a 12-team American League-only one.

Thus, it seems to me that putting together a "sleeper list" is not necessarily something that is practical for everyone. However, as I am constantly asked about such things, we'll do it this way: I'm going to go team by team and look at one player that has a chance to out earn what the prevailing opinion says he will probably earn, or who might slip under the radar of most owners. That way, we'll avoid using the term "sleeper" and more importantly, you'll be able to get more benefit out of this column.

Anaheim: Eric Owens takes over the 4th outfielder role that Alex Ochoa/Orlando Palmeiro had in Anaheim. Owens struggled in the second half last year. After the Marlins had acquired Juan Encarnacion, his playing time became more sporadic. However, he can still bring the steals given playing time, and he'll get some opportunities here and there, plus he's an injury away from full-time work. He won't steal 26 again in a part-time role, that is obvious, but he should be a very good endgamer in AL-only leagues as his average is not likely to hurt you and he will run given the opportunity.

Baltimore: Jerry Hairston returned back to his usual form last year, holding off a challenge from Brian Roberts for the starting job. He was actually pretty lucky in this regard, because if Roberts had gotten off to a fast start after being given the role, he probably would have kept it. Hairston's value is, of course, in his steals, and he improved his percentage last year by working on technique and studying pitchers more. Hairston still needs to stop chasing pitches out of the strike zone or at the very least become less of a free swinger. To his credit, Hairston has been working hard at trying to hit to all fields and laying off the high stuff, so the room is there for more improvement, as evidenced by his .291 average after the All-Star break. Hairston may be overlooked and be available for a good price in your league, as he has the capability to surpass last year's output, perhaps significantly.

Boston: A serious 2003 breakout candidate is Jeremy Giambi. All he has ever needed was consistent playing time, which it appears he will get in Boston, as he was Theo Epstein's first priority when he took over as Sox GM. They didn't covet him that badly to not give him at least 450 at-bats. His defense, which would never allow him to get consistent at bats in the National League, is passable enough for occasional spot starts at first base, although he'll DH the rest of the time. More importantly, Giambi has reportedly been working out like a fiend in the offseason (a first for him) as he realizes he's running out of chances, and that his nightlife was not helping.

He can get on base at a better than .400 clip and has good power skills, although not as good as his brother, of course. He's also 28 and entering some peak power time. If the reports of newfound maturity are true, and the fact he showed up to training camp 10 days early voluntarily to work on fielding seems to indicate that they are, I'm positively giddy at what numbers he can put up this year.

Chicago: Willie Harris is an intriguing player. He could wind up with a good amount of playing time at second base and perhaps center field before it is all said and done in Chicago. At age 24, he still has to work on getting on base enough to use his tremendous speed, but the potential is there and his plate discipline has been improving ever so slowly. If he can get regular time, 30-plus steals are not out of the question. Just because there is no starting role for him to open the season does not mean AL leagues should forget about him.

Cleveland: Cliff Lee is a very good pitching prospect. This left-hander has a wide variety of offerings that he throws at different speed, with different arm angles and with different breaks. He needs to be a little bit better at throwing them for strikes, though, as his control hasn't followed him to the high minors thus far. He'll be in the rotation before it's all said and done, and with his upside you definitely want to grab him. He has the stuff, now he just needs to refine his command. That may not come right away, but you can't ignore his potential right now. He is a medium-high risk but has a high upside. His spring training injury (which should have no long term effects), will keep him under the radar screen.

Detroit: Jeremy Bonderman is trying to make the Tigers rotation direct from Class A ball. Nobody questions the fact that Bonderman is a premier pitching prospect. He is probably not ready for the major leagues, but his talent and upside are such that you have to take a look at him in the reserve round if it looks like he will make the rotation, as it does at the moment.

Kansas City: Ken Harvey was covered on our AL Prospect Report, and the full-time DH job looks to be his. In AL-only leagues, if the bid is in single digits, you should be right in there.

Minnesota: Right now Matt LeCroy is slated to be the full-time DH, and if that holds, look out. LeCroy can be an excellent power source if they would just give him the time. He hasn't received the time due to the prior presence of David Ortiz at DH because his defense at both catcher and first base is not really passable. He may still get five games in at each spot to give him eligibility there during the season. However, there is no reason he can't be a .270-20-80 guy given something close to full-time duty. With the glut of outfielders who will also get presumable get some DH time, he will have to keep hitting to stay in the lineup.

New York: Hideki Matsui. The name most seasoned Japanese observers compare Matsui to is Brian Giles. Heck, Brian Giles Lite works for me.

Oakland: Esteban German struggled in his first exposure in Oakland, but more consistent playing time should take care of that. He has great plate discipline, and can get on base via walk very well to utilize his good speed. While that speed is outstanding, his stolen-base technique needs some refining as he does tend to get caught more than you would like. Mediocre defense doesn't help his case for playing time. Despite the recent acquisition of Jose Flores, do not discount the possibility German could provide some second-half speed for the A's. I like Mark Ellis, but German has bigger fantasy implications, and is a solid reserve pick.

Seattle: Gil Meche has battled back from years of injuries and has an opportunity to flash some of the skills that made him so highly rated a starting pitcher in the first place. He's a great endgame or reserve-list pick.

Tampa Bay: Lance Carter is battling with Jesus Colome for the closer role. Carter did well in September with them (16 1/3 scoreless-inning streak), and will be in a prominent role for them this year regardless if he stays healthy. At 29, he's no prospect anymore, but regardless, you definitely want to look at this guy. He has a very, very good shot at closing here, and even if he doesn't right away, there is no guarantee that Colome finds consistent success.

Texas: Ismael Valdes is always available for a single-digit price and always winds up being useful, despite missing starts here and there with blister trouble. He gets overlooked in many drafts, often going for $2-$6.

Toronto: Cory Lidle got off to a horrible start but finished with stellar performances, including five starts without an earned run (2.69 after the break, 5-0 and 0.20 in August). He got himself squared away after some mechanical difficulties and I would have no trouble spending a good amount of bucks on him this year. Another name to watch is Mark Hendrickson. The former basketball player could be a nice surprise in the Toronto rotation.

Jason Grey is the publisher of The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com, a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion. Their 2003 annual featuring strategy and player profiles as well as their 2003 projections for various game formats is available now.

 

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