Fantasy Mailbag

The need speed: Getting the most value for steals

Dave Roberts stole a career-best 45 bases in 2002. Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

You have questions. Fantasy baseball guru Todd Zola has answers. Click here to submit your fantasy query, then check back every Monday for his latest answers.

Hi, gang! This week we are coming at you from Las Vegas, where I am participating in a couple drafts. As “interesting” as the atmosphere is, I would so much prefer to be in Arizona or Florida catching some spring training. Anyway, being away from my home PC, with limited net access for the past 10 days, I have been unable to address as many questions with personal e-mails as I would like. If I was unable to send you a reply, or if you would like another opinion, I invite you to post your question on the message board forum at www.mastersball.com, where a wonderful variety of contributors will be happy to address your question. Now, onto this week’s inquiries.

I'm in a 5x5 rotisserie and a 5x5 head-to-head league. I'm looking for some cheap speed. Who has the better chance of racking up steals: Alex Sanchez or Dave Roberts?
-- Cory Hodgerson, Orlando, Fla.

Let us consider this question to be the representative for all the “stolen bases” questions I received this week. Seems as though a lot of you are looking for the proverbial cheap steal.

Both Sanchez and Roberts have an excellent chance to rack up steals, but based on their success last year, neither will come cheap. Their lack of a track record may result in their value being discounted, but it probably will not be cheap. Comparing the two, Roberts has slightly better on-base skills and an outstanding tutor in Maury Wills, so I expect him to better Sanchez’s total by a handful or two.

Other sources of discounted steals are Juan Pierre, Kenny Lofton and Roger Cedeno. Pierre’s move to Florida and perceived struggles in 2002 lower his value but he once again will be among the league’s top thieves.

The contenders for the elusive cheap steals are Endy Chavez, Pokey Reese and Carl Crawford. Chavez has been handed the center field job in Montreal by default, but he does have decent on-base skills and can run. Pokey has burned many an owner, so his value is most likely lower than it should be. I personally envision a return to the 20 SB level for him. Crawford’s value may be lower as a result of the backlash from Hank Blalock not matching his hype last season. Many owners are now gun-shy when it comes to counting on rookies and young players.

A couple players who should not be forgotten are Desi Relaford and Melvin Mora. Both provide their owners with useful roster flexibility. Relaford is a particularly intriguing choice as there is no indication Angel Berroa is ready to assume the shortstop position for Kansas City.

Do not forget about Eric Young and Jerry Hairston. Both quietly put up nice totals.

High-end speedsters Ichiro Suzuki and Johnny Damon suffered second-half woes in 2002 but look primed to return the their expected level.

The wild card in the bunch is Luis Castillo. Thus far, he has been hesitant to test his surgically repaired hip. Considering Castillo’s batting average is buoyed 60-80 points each season by his incredible total of infield hits, his value is totally dependent upon his wheels. If you are in a position where you need to take chances to compete, perhaps due to a weaker freeze list in a keeper league, Castillo is a prime target as his services will come at a discount due to the injury questions.

I have concerns about Keith Foulke. There is no question he should get many save opportunities in Oakland, but after his struggles last year, would you recommend him? In some drafts I've seen him go higher than Mariano Rivera. I don't want to draft him too soon. In a 12-team 5x5 snake draft, where should he belong? Thank you.
-- Daniel Seddon, Pottsville, Pa.

Daniel, you have nothing to be concerned about. Foulke really did not struggle last year; quite the opposite. He had a stellar year, unfortunately most of it was in the setup role and not as a closer. The White Sox afforded Foulke precious few save opportunities early on, and he had a rough time in the couple he did see. For whatever reason, Foulke was stripped of the job and relegated to seventh- and eighth-inning duty. Mailbag regulars may recall I anticipated a conversion of Foulke to a starting pitcher. Instead, the Athletics jumped all over the opportunity and stole Foulke from the White Sox.

Take a look at Foulke’s supporting numbers from last year. Although his K-rate dropped a tad, his walk rate improved. A WHIP of 1.04 backed his 2.89 ERA. These are hardly the numbers of a struggling reliever. Foulke should see a plethora of save chances and should convert the majority of them.

Where he should go in a snake draft depends on the time your particular draft elects to go after closers. Each draft has its own character, and the initial closer run is often a defining element. I am not in favor of drafting a closer too soon, especially in a 5x5 league, but Foulke should be lumped in with NLers Eric Gagne, Billy Wagner, Armando Benitez and John Smoltz along with Rivera in a mixed league. In an AL-only league, Percival joins Foulke and Rivera at the top of the rankings.

I'm in a keeper league, and I'm trying to get Carlos Beltran. How's this trade offer: Austin Kearns and Bartolo Colon for Carlos Beltran and Ryan Jensen. Help!
-- Ben Cohen, Boston

Details, people. I need details to address questions like this properly! What is the league structure? Are there salaries, contracts or keeper ramifications involved?

On the surface, this may be too much to give up, even for a talent such as Beltran. Depending on the league structure, Kearns may also be a viable keeper, as is Colon. While Beltran is better than Kearns, Colon blows away Jensen. While it often costs a premium to get a keeper, Kearns is just a notch below Beltran in future value. I would look to change one of the pitchers. Either offer a lesser pitcher than Colon or get back something better than Jensen.

What's up, Todd? I wanted to know your thoughts on three players: Joe Crede, Brad Wilkerson, and Karim Garcia. What kind of numbers do you expect from each and how would you rank them? Thanks a lot.
-- Ashley Chen, Queens, N.Y.

Crede is the far and away best player of the troika. He may be manning third base for the Chicago White Sox two years too late, but now that he has assumed the position, he immediately becomes the third to fifth most valuable third baseman in the American League. Only Troy Glaus and Eric Chavez are definitively better, with Eric Hinske and Corey Koskie in the same class. This class may include either or both of the Texas duo of Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira very soon. Extrapolating Crede’s production in 2002 to a full season in 2003 results in a ceiling that is a bit too high, but an average between .275 with 25 dingers is reasonable. Ultimately, he will need to improve his walk and strikeout rates to jump into the upper echelon of AL third baseman.

Wilkerson and Garcia are of similar value. Their home run totals should be in the low 20s with batting averages ranging between .265 and .275. Wilkerson will swipe a handful more bases. What will differentiate them is their runs and RBIs, which are very difficult to predict based on the relative ineptitude of their respective lineups. It can be argued that Montreal surrounds Wilkerson with slightly better players and therefore slightly better production can be expected. However, Wilkerson has an exceedingly high strikeout rate, which makes him a risky proposition to project. Garcia has finally earned a full-time job, but do not expect the .300-30-100 season his 2002 stats project to. Hi! I play in a ML, 5x5 rotisserie league. What do you expect from Andy Pettitte this year? Also, is Pedro Astacio more likely to have last year's pre- or post-All-Star numbers? Thanks.
-- Joost Knapen, Deurne, Netherlands

I was admittedly surprised when looking at Pettitte’s three-year numbers. He has markedly improved each of the last two seasons. Last season’s jump was aided by only pitching in a little over half of his usual innings. Who knows what would have happened with another 100 innings added to his total? As such, it is not safe to predict further improvement, but rather prudent to accept a slight decline from last year’s totals, nestling in at a point somewhere between last year and 2001. All this assumes continued good health for Pettitte’s balky left arm. He is right in the middle of the second tier of AL starting pitchers, with the ability to move to the top of the tier.

Astacio elected not to have a torn labrum be surgically repaired, instead opting for rehab and pitching through the pain. While he was lights-out effective for the early part of 2002, he was in-the-toilet ineffective towards the end. Without having the tear repaired, it is hard to believe that even with an offseason’s worth of rest he can match last year’s blazing start. He will also not be as horrific as his post-All-Star line indicates. My best guess is he will be a serviceable starter in deeper strikeout leagues, but be wary of the labrum woes kicking in, leading to his shutdown.

Which two of these three guys should I use to round out my rotation: Danny Graves, Jason Jennings or Kris Benson? I drafted Graves, picked up Jennings off waivers and Benson is still out there. My other pitchers are Odalis Perez, Roger Clemens and Jeff Weaver. Thanks.
-- Darren James, Milford, Mass.

Sorry, Mr. Jennings, you and your Rookie of the Year award are on the outside looking in. Benson is primed for a comeback from Tommy John surgery as he is right at the 18-20 month time that signals a total return to form. He worked off the rust during the second half of last year and is capable of a fine year. Graves is making the conversion to starter. While there are similarities to Derek Lowe, it is unlikely he will attain that measure of success. While Jennings managed to achieve great success while calling Coors his home during his initial campaign, a repeat is highly improbable.

Hey, Fantasy Guru, my league is switching to 5x5 after playing 4x4 for 10 years. What kind of differences will there be? TIA for your answer.
-- Joey Lexingford, Lima, Ohio

For those unfamiliar with the lingo, 4x4 refers to the standard method of rotisserie scoring. It uses the four categories of batting average, HR, RBI and SB for hitters and wins, saves, ERA and WHIP for pitchers. In 5x5, hitting adds runs and pitching adds strikeouts.

In terms of value, players who specialize in one or two categories lose value in 5x5. The most common recipients of this decline are closers and stolen-base specialists. The reason being their main contribution makes up a lower percentage of the overall value. With four categories, saves make up 25% of the pitching points. This drops to 20% in 5x5. Another difference lies within the players with an extremely low batting average but acceptable counting stats. The negative effect the batting average has on total value is reduced in 5x5. Starting pitchers that accrue an above-average amount of strikeouts have a value spike in 5x5 while pitchers like Kirk Rueter and Derek Lowe lose value in 5x5.

In terms of the player pool, the addition of runs does not significantly alter the makeup of the draft-worthy pool. However, the addition of strikeouts renders the borderline starting pitchers more valuable than the borderline middle relievers so there is an influx of starting pitchers at the lower end of the draft-worthy pool.

In terms of strategy, it is easier to dump a category in 5x5 and still win. In other words, it is a viable strategy to accept the minimal points in a category and use the salary normally allotted there to strengthen the other categories. Ditching saves and shunting the money normally dedicated to closers to hitting or starting pitching most often accomplishes this. Your margin of error is reduced, but some consider it worth the risk, as the category of saves is getting more unpredictable year after year.

Todd Zola is a writer for The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com. a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion.

 

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