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Fantasy File
Hidden gems await from bottom-feeder teams
Posted: Wednesday March 26, 2003 3:57 PM
Jose Jimenez has 82 saves the past three seasons. |
By James Quintong, SI.com
Often times when playing fantasy baseball (and other fantasy sports for that matter), owners can lose sight of the actual wins and losses on the field as they worry more about the day-to-day stats of their players. While your team is building up a huge lead in the fantasy standings, you may fail to realize your favorite team has slid down the standings. Other times, you might miss out on a team surging up the standings, especially if you don't have any players from that team on your squad.
However, when it comes to draft day, you can be sure most fantasy owners are taking a team's potential record into account when setting lists. Perennial contenders like the Yankees and A's are full of valuable fantasy players. Current doormats like the Tigers and Brewers have lots of players to avoid. A team's lack of wins can hurt the potential value of pitchers, while a lack of punch in the lineup can drag down a slugger's RBI numbers.
Still, it's not too hard for players from bad teams to transcend their clubs' mediocrity to become fantasy superstars. It just teases owners as to what could be if he goes to a pennant contender. Some of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball fall in this category, including Alex Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero and Sammy Sosa and Brian Giles.
However, there are plenty of players with great fantasy value on second-division teams. Some are a lot more obvious than others, but there are some others that might jump up and pull of a surprise, especially if their teams can make a move this season. Just look at last year's Angels for an example of a team with enough talent that eventually made a big move.
We'll look at the bottom 10 teams overall, according to Sports Illustrated's baseball preview issue, for players who should have a positive fantasy impact.
21. Montreal Expos: Despite the team's uncertain future, fantasy owners still keep close tabs on the Expos, if just for Vlad. However, Jose Vidro has been one of the top second baseman in the NL for a couple of years but sometimes gets forgotten in the Guerrero hoopla. Javier Vazquez stumbled slightly last year, which might depress his value slightly but he still has ace potential.
Brad Wilkerson is a promising player, although his plate discipline could keep him from reaching the next level. Michael Barrett is a decent catcher in an otherwise weak pool. There are also decent pitchers behind Vazquez, such as Tomo Ohka. However, the bullpen situation (with Scott Stewart currently as a closer) does little to instill excitement.
22. Cleveland Indians: You probably already know about the steady production from veterans like Omar Vizquel and Ellis Burks, but the team has become much younger lately, and the newcomers are risky propositions for fantasy owners.
Travis Hafner, Brandon Phillips, Milton Bradley and Victor Martinez all have lots of upside. The question is whether it happens this year. Signs say the real promise is in 2004 or 2005. It took Karim Garcia forever to become a bona fide major leaguer after years of promise. Now he has to back up last year's second-half surge. Pitching is a big question in Cleveland as well, but C.C. Sabathia can pile up innings and Danys Baez can pile up saves even for a bad team.
23. Pittsburgh Pirates: Mike Williams stunned many owners by saving 46 games last season, proving you don't have to be a winning team to get saves. Still, it's hard to believe he can do that again. Jason Kendall was supposed to be the "diamond in the rough" -– a great player on a bad team. But he's failed to live up to that hype because of injuries. Reggie Sanders and Kenny Lofton should do well in the outfield, and Aramis Ramirez isn't as bad as 2002 might suggest. That might help the numbers of the best fantasy player on the worst team -- Brian Giles.
Kris Benson could become an ace again, and is pegged by many as a "sleeper" pick after continuing his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Kip Wells and Josh Fogg were pleasant surprises last season as endgame, $1-type pitchers. They won't be as cheap as last year, but they probably won't go for as much as Benson. Instead, they're just as serviceable and valuable as fellow rotation mates Jeff Suppan and Jeff D'Amico, who have had their moments over the years.
24. Colorado Rockies: I won't mention hitting here since just about every offensive player here gets a bump in value for playing at Coors. Pitching is another story altogether. Jason Jennings won NL Rookie of the Year, thanks to winning 16 games. His ERA and WHIP numbers were good for Coors, mediocre everywhere else. Jose Jimenez saved 41 games, but like Williams, it's hard to think he'd repeat that effort, which means you might get him at a decent price. Otherwise, it's best to pass on Rockies' arms, but you already know that.
25. Baltimore Orioles: I've mentioned Jeff Conine before as a stable but unspectacular veteran to fill out a roster. If you can afford the hit in batting average, Tony Batista has lots of power and Jerry Hairston Jr. has lots of speed. Jorge Julio won the closer sweepstakes and finished with 25 saves and a 1.99 ERA, but like Williams and Jimenez, you have to wonder how many chances are available. That keeps his value down and makes him a better second closer on a fantasy squad. Rodrigo Lopez also had a surprising 2002 as he emerged as Baltimore's ace, although some wonder if that was a one-year phenomenon.
26. Milwaukee Brewers: Even with his high strikeout numbers, Richie Sexson has plenty of value because of his power. Geoff Jenkins is also a star in the making if he can stay healthy. However, those question marks will bring down his value and make him a real steal in some drafts. Many fantasy owners know about Alex Sanchez already because he provides lots of steals, although veteran Eric Young provides some as well.
I think Ben Sheets is starting to come into his own as a starting pitcher, and he could become among the league's best in a year or two. You may have to go through a few more growing pains this year. Other than that, the pickings are slim unless you want to take chances on Ruben Quevedo or Glendon Rusch. If you're relying on a lot of Brewers to keep your team in contention, you're in deep trouble.
27. San Diego Padres: Two players who transcended the team's up-and-down record, Phil Nevin and Trevor Hoffman, are out of the picture because of serious arm injuries. That leaves Ryan Klesko as the team's stud fantasy player, although he'll need to steal more bases again. Sean Burroughs may have gotten over some of his rookie jitters and should be ready to live up to last year's expectations. Mark Kotsay is a helpful fantasy player, but he's also the definition of an "average" fantasy outfielder. Unfortunately, the same goes for newly acquired Rondell White, even if and when he's healthy.
Like the Cubs, Phillies and Marlins, the Padres have a very young starting rotation. However, it doesn't get the same hype or attention of those teams. Brian Lawrence is one of the most anonymous aces in the majors, but he puts up decent numbers. Adam Eaton, Jake Peavy and Oliver Perez all have question marks but all show plenty of promise. These are the types of younger, cheaper pitching that can provide great reward for fantasy teams if they should pan out.
28. Kansas City Royals: Mike Sweeney and Carlos Beltran are familiar names to fantasy owners, but they lack the hype that surrounds other similar elite fantasy players. The team does have a nice middle of the lineup. Raul Ibanez came out of nowhere, Joe Randa drives in runs even if he doesn't hit a lot of homers and Ken Harvey is another promising prospect with power potential. Even Michael Tucker can be a helpful player with his ability to hit homers and steal bases. Unfortunately, there's a lot of mediocrity floating at the bottom of the lineup, and it's probably best to stay away from most of the pitching staff. You probably don't want a Royals pitcher right now unless you're really desperate.
29. Detroit Tigers: Here's another team that can drag down fantasy squads if you rely on them too much. Health has cut into Bobby Higginson's numbers, but given everything else around him, he's starting to project out as an average outfielder like Mark Kotsay. Injuries are also the issue with Dmitri Young, who will help your batting average but doesn't offer as much power as you'd expect.
The pitching is young, mostly untested and gigantic fantasy risks. You might want Franklyn German and Matt Anderson for saves, but you're playing with fire. Youngsters like Andy Van Hekken and Jeremy Bonderman might have upside, but watch them from afar for now.
30. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Tom Verducci says it could be a long year for the offense because they can't draw walks. However, that's the part of the team where there is some hope. Aubrey Huff is probably the first Devil Ray taken in most drafts, although usually late. Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford will help form a speedy outfield. Ben Grieve and Travis Lee are great late-round picks as you delve into the pool of players who never quite reached their potential.
As for pitching, the only one you really want anywhere before the endgame is Joe Kennedy, who is the team's ace primarily by default. Kennedy is a decent pitcher who doesn't really hurt you and will give you enough innings to make it worth your while. I wouldn't make him the No. 1 guy on your staff, but he's a good No. 3 or 4 fantasy starter.
James Quintong is Fantasy Sports producer at SI.com.
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