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NL Report
Decent pitching is available at cheap prices
Posted: Thursday March 27, 2003 6:01 PMUpdated: Thursday March 27, 2003 6:02 PM
Brandon Duckworth had 167 strikeouts in 163 innings last year. |
By Jason Grey, Special to SI.com
Like we did in this week's AL Report, we'll take a look at some National League pitchers who should be available relatively cheaply, that have an opportunity to provide good value.
Arizona: John Patterson is a great cheap pitching sleeper this year. After missing almost two seasons to reconstructive elbow surgery, his velocity is back and he actually has better command than before, as he has learned how to pitch instead of just throw. If he can remain healthy, he could have a very good year.
Atlanta: At age 24, there are times when Jason Marquis is unhittable. There are also times when he's the most hittable pitcher on the planet. As he matures, we should see more of the former, and less of the latter. He started off strong last year, but his control and his strikeout ability started to abandon him at the end of July. A flaw in his delivery that can be corrected was pinpointed as a trouble area. He should bounce back and have some nice upside for a small investment (or at least it should be small after last year's numbers.) The bidding shouldn't get too out of hand.
Chicago: After shuffling him back and forth between the minors and majors and the rotation and the bullpen, the Cubs hopefully will just leave Carlos Zambrano alone to be a good starter. Stability hopefully should help his control. He is worth a small bid, since there is lots of upside. Chances are he is not his listed age, though.
Cincinnati: John Riedling is a good short reliever who may have been the closer by now if not for some poorly timed DL stints. He's a good endgame pick as if things fall right, he could close. He should give you quality innings regardless.
Colorado: I've liked Denny Stark's makeup since he was in the Seattle system. Three good pitches and a somewhat funky delivery (that does put a lot of stress on his arm; he's been hurt before) make him an intriguing pitcher. Did you know his ERA was actually BETTER at Coors than on the road last year? (3.21 vs. 5.48) Stark is the definition of a tenacious battler, and he refuses to let Coors beat him or be an excuse. That's a refreshing attitude for a pitcher (and, yes, I am looking at you, Mike Hampton). He still needs to improve his control to stay at this level, but I just may be a buyer here. Yes, in Coors. Go figure.
Florida: Tim Spooneybarger should be first in line for saves if Braden Looper falters in the Marlins' pen, which is a distinct possibility. Spooneybarger has good stuff with lots of natural movement that keeps hitters off balance. Unfortunately sometimes he is a little too wild for his own good and hurts himself with walks. Still, he could probably do well as a closer.
Houston: Peter Munro did two things last year to take a step up: 1. He got his sinker working and produced more groundballs. 2. He sharply improved his control. He's on the outside looking in as far as a rotation spot goes this year, as there are more "heralded" pitchers that will get a look first. But you never know, it could come back around to him. He's a nice player to stash away on a reserve list. You could get lucky and he could get a rotation slot through attrition.
Los Angeles: Darren Dreifort still has a lot of talent, as well as stuff, and the price will be right. Take a chance.
Milwaukee: I would bet that Luis Vizcaino has more saves than Mike Dejean in Milwaukee by year's end. Dejean is on shaky ground to start, and Vizcaino has the makeup and the stuff to be very successful at the job.
Montreal: Sun-Woo Kim added a very good changeup to his arsenal late last year, and it made all the difference. With this new off-speed pitch keeping hitters off balance, he posted a 0.89 ERA in September. When we can point to a specific improvement point, as opposed to speculating about general "development," it makes prediction for future success that much easier. I think he'll be a bargain that will turn a good profit this year if he grabs a rotation job. He had always had decent skills but lacked that one thing that really put him over the top. He may have it now.
New York: Scott Strickland will be first in line should the injury bug bite Armando Benitez. If he could figure out how to handle left-handed hitters, he'd be an even better pitcher. He is known for inconsistency at times, but he should still be a decent setup play if you need one.
Philadelphia: Early season DL stint aside, I love Brandon Duckworth for this year. If he is under $10, snatch him up. He can be lights out dominant at times, but just needs more consistency. That will come. Homers did him in last year, but with his stuff, those should come down with experience and learning how to use his pitches more. He has a VERY high ceiling, and if he stays in the rotation and stays off the DL, he could break out in a big way this year.
Pittsburgh: Chronicly injury prone, Jeff D'Amico managed to get 140-plus innings last year. Expecting him to repeat that again without injury is a stretch. He faded badly after the All-Star break, and then wound up being dropped from the rotation entirely. He was not hurt enough to be hitting the DL, but it was enough to render him ineffective. He has the fifth starter's job in Pittsburgh, and whereas before he was high risk/high reward, now he is high risk/moderate reward. Still the price will be dirt cheap, and he has shown an ability to be effective in the past.
San Diego: Brandon Villafuerte will do a good job as the early season closer. He held righties to just a .210 average last year, and with the uncertainty of the bullpen situation, he will be undervalued.
San Francisco: Jesse Foppert is the best pitching prospect in the minor leagues and will see time in the majors at some point this year. Lack of a major league rotation slot to open the year should keep the price down.
St. Louis: Regardless of where he has been -- Seattle, Cincy, or San Diego -- Brett Tomko has struggled with stamina when he works from the rotation. His WHIP and ERA were up sharply in the second half as he wore down. If you draft him, you may want to deal him midway through the year. When rested and able, he can be a very good pitcher.
Jason Grey is the publisher of The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com, a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion. Their 2003 annual featuring strategy and player profiles as well as their 2003 projections for various game formats is available now.
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