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Grey Matter
Don't get too caught up in early stats
Posted: Thursday April 03, 2003 6:22 PM
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Rocco Baldelli opened his major-league career with seven hits in his first 22 at-bats. AP |
By Jason Grey, Special to SI.com
More musings and observations from opening week from a fantasy perspective ...
Dave Roberts has admitted quietly that he thinks he has the same knee trouble that affected Brian Jordan last year. Jordan gutted out the season, and wound up having surgery afterwards, from which he is still only 85 percent recovered. Right now, Roberts will play on it as best as he can, as it only really hurts when he stops suddenly or has to plant his foot. However, any knee injury for a player whose value is predicated on his speed has to be considered serious. It doesn't appear at this point that it will affect his ability on the base paths, but that could change as the season wears on. We'll keep an eye on the situation.
Corey Patterson is saying that he is "seeing the ball better" this year. This doesn't mean he had a vision problem before, but means that he feels he is doing better at pitch recognition, a problem that plagued him and led to numerous strikeouts last year. If this is true, we could start to see the breakout many have long predicted for him.
Yes, Erick Almonte homered last night, but the Yankees are still going to test the waters on acquiring another shortstop. Don't expect them to do something big, like go after Omar Vizquel, but names like Mike Bordick or Andy Fox are out there. Fox, in particular, because of his stolen base ability, would be of particular interest to fantasy players. Just don't break the FAAB budget for Almonte, as there is a possibility the Yankees will upgrade. Mike Bordick with a starting job in New York still is nothing from a fantasy standpoint.
Despite getting shellacked by the Yankees in his start yesterday, I would still keep an eye on Blue Jays third starter Mark Hendrickson in deep AL leagues. I am not recommending a pickup at this point, but getting creamed in his opening start does not mean that he does not have a good deal of talent. Keep an eye on his next couple of starts and see if he rebounds. Speaking of Blue Jays' starters, Justin Miller barely beat out Pete Walker for the fifth starter job. However, I don't expect Miller to pitch well enough to keep it. Between Miller and Hendrickson, the possibility exists that one of them will struggle, and that would put Pete Walker in the rotation. While Walker does not have a starting job right now, he could be effective in deep AL-only leagues if he were to get one. He was a serviceable starter last year for fantasy teams, and could be again, producing a small return.
Jeremy Bonderman, two years removed from high school, struggled in his opening start as well for Detroit. There were encouraging signs though, including striking out the side in one inning (albeit in the middle of giving up some runs.) What we saw was pretty much what was expected: a pitcher with fantastic stuff who struggled with consistency. He threw strikes, showed three different pitches, and was able to get punchouts. This is not saying that he will become a very good starter this year, just that his first start wasn't a total disaster and there were some positives to be taken from it. Continue to watch him.
The Red Sox bullpen by committee seems pretty clear how it will shake out at this point. The ability of both Ramiro Mendoza and Mike Timlin to pitch two innings at a time should keep them in middle roles, while depending on whether lefty or right batters are expected in the ninth, you will see Alan Embree and Chad Fox. For example, Embree had a chance in the opener because three straight lefties were anticipated. Last night, they were expecting righties (as well as the fact that Fox was not used in the marathon extra inning game the night before.) As always with Fox, injury woes could flare up at any time which could render this plan moot. Additionally, as a follow up to our report on Embree earlier in the week, his velocity was down 3 mph again in his second outing, and he got hit a bit. Major league hitters can hit 93 mph fastballs. Health-wise, he appears sound, but questions persist as to whether the extra offseason bulk he added has affected his velocity. Without that extra giddyup on the heater, he becomes a much more ordinary pitcher.
The Devil Rays picked up Damion Easley and sent Brent Abernmathy down. Expect Easley to have some small value as a pretty regular second baseman. This allows Lou Piniella to continue to use Marlon Anderson and Damian Rolls in the manner he utilized Mark McLemore and Desi Relaford in Seattle. Considering the stolen base capabilities of Anderson and Rolls, this is still a good thing from a fantasy standpoint.
Speaking of the Rays, you may have heard that Rocco Baldelli's three hits in the extra inning game the other night were all of the infield variety. He has an extraordinarily quick first step out of the box for a right-handed hitter and can get down the line quickly. That said, we still need to see him hit the ball with more authority and show that he can work the strike zone a bit before placing a lot of faith in him for this year. Remember, despite his great 2002 minor league campaign, his 2001 season was quite ordinary. He has a world of talent, but we can't say he's ready for the majors on a full-time basis yet.
One last Tampa word: Don't assume that Jesus Colome is on stable ground as the Rays' closer, not with the way Lance Carter has been pitching. He breezed through four innings the other night not because he can do that regularly but because he was getting hitters out easily with a minimum of pitches.
Cory Lidle is another pitcher that you should not worry about too much, even though he got off to a rocky start in his first outing this year. Lidle was a slow starter last year, and there is no question that he will wind up being a double-digit earner before it is all said and done.
B.J. Surhoff is starting for the Orioles and batting third. I don't expect that he has too much left in the tank, and that Jack Cust will find himself in the thick of things in Baltimore before the year is out, especially if he gets off to a hot start at Class AAA. Surhoff only qualifies at first base in most leagues to start the season, but will eventually qualify in the outfield. Either way he is nothing more than a last resort.
Yes, Mike MacDougal saved the first two games for the Royals, but that doesn't mean he is going to be bankable as a closer this year. He throws 100 mph, but has had persistent control problems in the past that could flare up at any time, and he could get himself into some serious troubles with walks in the future. Don't bet the farm just yet.
Matt Herges was signed by the Padres, and they didn't sign him to pitch at AAA. IF Brandon Villafuerte gets off to a slow start (though I don't expect him to), Herges could find himself in the closer mix.
Finally this week, if you are drafting this weekend, an old cautionary tale that I repeat each year to beware of the "Littlefield Effect" based on an instance from the original Rotisserie league back in the '80s. It basically is an illustrative point to be careful about putting too much weight on the first week of numbers. Brian Littlefield saved two games the first week of one season, looked like a dominant closer, and went for $30 plus on draft day because of it. Littlefield retired a few years later, with the grand total of two major league saves. You do the math.
Jason Grey is the publisher of The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com, a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion. Their 2003 annual featuring strategy and player profiles as well as their 2003 projections for various game formats is available now.
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