NL Report

Patience is everything: Some players due for second-half surge

Jim Thome was a .338 hitter after the All-Star break last season. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

By Jason Grey, Special to SI.com

As I mentioned in this week's AL Report, we're doing the annual second-half surgers feature a tad early this year due to reader requests. We're going team by team in order to identify some of the players that should be due for producing better fantasy value over the balance of the season:

Arizona: If Danny Bautista can just stay healthy in the second half, I think he could surprise some fantasy owners with a strong finish. He was just starting to get his bat going before straining his hamstring.

Atlanta: Remember Jason Marquis? He did pretty well at Richmond after he was sent down. With Shane Reynolds struggling lately and Paul Byrd having setbacks with his elbow rehab, Marquis may put himself back in the starting mix in Atlanta when it's all said and done. He should probably do much better this time around as his command seems to have improved a little bit.

Chicago: Damian Miller had a month-long slump that really depressed his numbers, but has slowly been digging his way out of it. He's a good bet for decent catcher production in the second half.

Cincinnati: Adam Dunn is much better than a .200 hitter (but you knew that already), and the Reds are still looking to deal Jose Guillen for some pitching, which will lead back to a regular lineup slot for Dunn. Sometimes the obvious answers are the best ones. I am a Dunn buyer right now.

Colorado: Denny Stark returns on July 1, but he's having a little trouble with his control in the minors right now. Give him a little bit of time to get acclimated to the majors again, and he could post some decent numbers in August and September that could be useful in NL-only leagues.

Florida: Josh Beckett's 1.55 WHIP is an aberration. With his blister troubles seemingly under control, and his elbow healthy again (as far as his injury goes, a sprain wasn't nearly as serious as many other types of elbow injuries), Beckett could be a big fantasy producer in the second half.

Houston: Jeriome Robertson hasn't pitched as badly as his numbers (5.72 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) would indicate. He needs to work a little more efficiently and get past the sixth inning, and as he gets past his first 100 innings on the major league level he can improve on that.

Los Angeles: With the injury to Darren Dreifort, the Dodgers are going to need Andy Ashby to step up in the fifth starter role (although they won't need one for a bit due to off days.) It was just last year that Ashby posted a sub-4.00 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 30 starts. Smart money says he still has some left in the tank.

Milwaukee: Every year, same story with Royce Clayton. He gets off to a horrid start, and you wonder how he manages to get a job each year. Then, he slowly starts turning it around to make his numbers barely passable by season's end. For example, he hit .304 after the break last year, and did something similar in 2001. Does he make it three years in a row?

Montreal: Edwards Guzman may have gotten himself a starting role at third for the balance of the year. He's decent enough with the bat that there may be some small value to be had for deep NL leagues.

New York: Pay no mind to Jose Reyes' current Mendoza Line batting average. The kid is the real deal, and does not look overmatched at the plate. I doubt he is available in any NL-only leagues, but pick him up if he is.

Philadelphia: Pat Burrell is NOT on this list. His swing is all messed up right now, and despite his protests to the contrary, the boo birds in Philly are getting to him. Jim Thome has a lot of room to improve on his batting average. There is no bigger studier of pitchers than Thome, and the more he learns about these National League pitchers he's facing in his first year in the National League, the better he will hit. He also has been historically a strong second-half performer. In addition, Brandon Duckworth, after a very slow start due to a couple of injuries, has posted a 2.92 ERA in June in his limited work, with hitters batting just .195 against him. I like his chances to pitch much better in the second half.

Pittsburgh: Brian Giles. Two words. Monster finish.

San Diego: "The Shooter" is back! Rod Beck, one of the nicest guys in baseball, gets to pick up saves in San Diego for the foreseeable future. He still has enough guts and guile to get hitters out for an inning.

San Francisco: Jesse Foppert's stuff has been as good as advertised. His command has been a little off, which is not uncommon for a rookie pitcher. He has the ability to improve that in a hurry, and has shown excellent control in the minors. If he starts bringing that 1.55 WHIP down, we'll start seeing some great numbers.

St. Louis: It can't get much worse for Brett Tomko, who went through a rough "dead arm" period but pitched through it. We might not have seen his best performances for the 2003 season just yet.

Jason Grey is the publisher of The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com, a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion.

 

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