|
|
NL Report
Going batty: Second-half hitting faders
Posted: Thursday July 10, 2003 4:18 PM
Mike Lowell is a career .281 hitter before the All-Star break but just .264 after it. |
By Jason Grey, Special to SI.com
Like we did in this week’s AL Report, we’ll take a look at some hitters who could be due for a dropoff after the All-Star break. Perhaps you might have some these proverbial “sell high” candidates on your team to move if the price is right.
Arizona: Tony Womack and Craig Counsell were integral parts of the Diamondbacks championship team. Even when they return from injury, however, their time as the regular players may be over. The emergence of Junior Spivey and more recently, Matt Kata and (especially) Alex Cintron, may leave playing time for Womack and Counsell tough to come by, considering what the “kids” have done in Arizona’s tremendous winning run lately.
Atlanta: Rafael Furcal hit 20 points lower after the break last year, and while that may not happen again this year, expecting him to finish the season with 20 homers is a stretch. The numbers should still be solid and worth owning, but clearly not what they were in the first half.
Chicago: Corey Patterson might not equal his first-half production. OK, bad joke. Mark Grudzielaek hasn’t hit this well since 1999, and there is additional pressure on him to do so now at the top of the order. There isn’t any one thing in particular that is troublesome, just that I don't think Grudz can sustain a .300 average over a full season.
Cincinnati: Austin Kearns’ shoulder problems are a little more serious than you might think. Unless Kearns gets some extended rest or undergoes some surgery, it’s not going to get any better. While he is trying to play through it, the important thing to remember is that for all of his considerable hitting talents, he will be hard pressed to duplicate his first-half numbers because of health issues.
Colorado: Jay Payton seems due for an injury right now, don’t you think? He always seems to get hurt every season in one way or another. Expecting Payton to be a bedrock in the second-half offense may wind up getting you burned. Some track records are hard to overlook.
Florida: It may surprise some that Mike Lowell is on this list. However, after a blistering start, Lowell has cooled considerably going into the break. Moreover, we can look to some past history. Lowell hit .314 in the first half last year, but only .232 in the second half. Admittedly, a problem with a bruised hip that contributed to that somewhat, but he still should have hit better than .145 last August. With his recent slump, I actually moved Lowell in one league for some pitching. I had offense to deal, and Lowell seemed the best candidate to get the best return.
Houston: Even Jimy Williams can’t ignore Morgan Ensberg’s 1.036 OPS for long. That means, Geoff Blum and his .752 mark will see more bench time.
Los Angeles: Well, let’s see. The Dodgers’ problem has been that they have the worst offense in the league. So they don’t really have any hot hitters who can get any worse, now do they? I’m sure they’d love to have someone who could qualify for this list.
Milwaukee: Wes Helms’ 81 strikeouts are more telling to me than his home run output, and it means that even his .251 average might be a little bit of a stretch, not to mention the homers.
Montreal: I would suspect that Endy Chavez might have some issues with the grind of a full 162-game season as it wears on. (He is already suffering from elbow tendonitis and some other nagging injuries.) Chavez might have some trouble putting up some reliable production in late August and September.
New York: Cliff Floyd has a A LOT of aches and pains and other assorted woes right now. Since he's never been the model of health (just three seasons of over 500 at-bats in his career), we can definitely forecast some second-half statistical trouble.
Philadelphia: In the AL Report, I wrote about the troubles of workhorse catchers sustaining performance later in the season. You can safely add Mike Lieberthal to that list. With 71 games caught already, playing the most demanding position on the field might cause a September slump for Lieberthal.
Pittsburgh: Jason Kendall. See Lieberthal, Mike above.
San Diego: Rondell White. See Payton, Jay above. Isn’t he about due as well? Especially if some of the trade rumors are true and he winds up on artificial turf instead of a grass field and can’t DH.
San Francisco: Marquis Grissom has done a fine job for the defending NL champs this year. He’s currently hitting .307, which gives me pause, because he’s hit .300 in his career just once, in 1996. I don’t see it happening again seven years later, not in one of the better pitcher’s parks in baseball.
St. Louis: You have to think Albert Pujols’ numbers will come down a bit, but they will still probably be as good as anyone’s. Edgar Renteria and Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen should continue at their current pace, so the honor goes to Mike Matheny, who is trying to overcome the realities of a .239 lifetime average by bating .273 thus far. I think the end results will be closer to his lifetime average than his current one.
Jason Grey is the publisher of The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com, a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion.
|
Copyright © 2003 CNN/Sports Illustrated, an AOL Time Warner Company and Sportsline.com Inc. All Rights Reserved. Terms under which this service is provided to you. Read our privacy guidelines. |
|
