Fantasy Mailbag

Don't believe the hype: Not all second-half trends created equal

Cory Lidle is 17-5 with a 2.82 ERA after the All-Star break the last two seasons for Oakland. Rick Stewart/Getty Images

You have questions. Fantasy baseball guru Todd Zola has answers. Click here to submit your fantasy query, then check back every Monday for his latest answers.

I'm looking to shake up my roster. Could you recommend some hitters and pitchers who you think will have big secpnd halves that I can get cheaply now. Also, who are some players who you think will nosedive in the second half?
--Steve Shein, Millwood, N.Y.

I owe Steve an apology. He sent this question in several weeks ago and I promised an answer and am just now getting around to it. And I am not even going to answer it as requested. While I consider it useful to remind everyone of players who have a penchant for strong or weak second halves, I prefer to concentrate on players who show current trends contradictory to recent career trends. My philosophy is that there is a difference between a second half player and someone who has had a couple decent second halves. I prefer not to manage my team because so and so did really good or bad after the break last year. Sure, it may turn out that the player will indeed show this positive or negative trend over the course of his career, but I favor to rely on the most recent trends. Let’s move onto some examples.

Last year after the break, Adam Dunn fell in the toilet. He hit .300 before and .190 after. He slugged .544 pre and .353 post. So far this season, Dunn has been in and out of the lineup and has struggled to keep his average above the Mendoza line. While I am not predicting a total flip-flop leading to a .300 second half, I am penciling Dunn in for an improved batting average with similar power. Cincinnati plays 38 of their 69 remaining games at home where Dunn thrives, having hit 15 of his 25 homers there so far this season. Between being yo-yoed up and down the batting order and in and out of the lineup, Dunn did not ever get in a real groove, which is best exemplified by his increased strikeout rate and amplified by a reduction in the walk rate that rendered him such a high prospect a couple years back. The injury to fellow phenom Austin Kearns is likely to keep Dunn in the lineup almost full time. All Dunn has to do is relax, realize he is at his best when he is not trying to hit homers, but to wait for his pitch and smack it. He’ll do just that to the tune of a .250 batting average with 20-25 more dingers.

For the past three years, this pitcher has gone 5-15, 5.17 in the first half and 20-7, 2.92 in the second half. So far in 2003, he is right on track sporting an ERA of 5.96. So a sub-3.00 ERA must be in order for the second half, right? Not for Cory Lidle, it is not. While it is likely Lidle lowers his ERA, he will be hard pressed to match his 10 wins. Remember, Lidle spent the better part of the previous three seasons pitching in the spacious Network Associates Coliseum, playing for the Oakland Athletics. His present home is not nearly as pitcher-friendly and Lidle will not be able to do the same 180 he has enjoyed the past couple of years. He will remain more hittable than in the past and set a career high for home runs allowed. Show a competitor Lidle’s splits and deal him for whatever you can get.

In 2000, Johnny Damon hit .267 in the first half and .386 in the second. In 2001, although the jump was nowhere near as sharp, he hit better after the break. Last year, Damon made the All-Star team then declined, largely due to nagging injuries. Many are suggesting last year was an aberration and Damon will return to his trend of performing better in the second half. They may very well be right. I see Damon keeping status quo, neither improving nor regressing. Perhaps a slight bettering of his .260 average is in order, but nowhere near the level he has reached in the past. The steals will continue as will the runs scored.

He does not walk and the change in leagues is bound to catch up to Shea Hillenbrand, right? Not in my book. But before I explain why, I need to supply some background and talk about a little more of my baseball philosophy. By a show of hands, who has read Moneyball? Of course, one of the theses running through the book is something I rely upon for analysis, the importance of on-base percentage.

I have mentioned before that the primary purpose of using OBP as an evaluation tool and seeking players who display extreme plate discipline is not to stack your lineup with players who walk frequently, but rather to fill your lineup with sluggers. That’s right, the top OBP players are generally not the top-of-the-order speedster types, but rather the middle-of-the-order run producing types. You want names? In the AL, Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, Manny Ramirez, Edgar Martinez and Jorge Posada populate the top ten. In the NL, the top ten on-base players are in order, Barry Bonds, Brain Giles, Todd Helton, Albert Pujols, Larry Walker, Gary Sheffield, Jose Vidro, Sammy Sosa, Lance Berkman and Jim Edmonds. There is nary a lead-off hitter in the bunch.

The advantage of patience is increasing the odds of seeing a pitch in your wheelhouse. If the pitcher throws four balls before the disciplined batter gets a pitch he can handle, the result is a base on balls and an elevated OBP. In a nutshell, the idea is to smack the 3-1 meatball out of the yard as opposed to grounding out on the 0-1 splitter.

But here is the catch. The key is waiting for a pitch one can handle. Who says this pitch HAS to be a strike? Some managers and coaches do, that’s who. There is a difference between waiting for a strike, waiting for a strike you can hit and waiting for a pitch you can hit.

The fact is, some players have the ability to put a charge into pitches that are not strikes. Nomar Garciaparra, Vladimir Guerrero and Kirby Puckett immediately come to mind. While he is by no means in their class, Hillenbrand belongs in that group. While in Boston, Hillenbrand was instructed to wait for a strike he can handle. Too often, he mistook the advice as wait for a strike. Some strikes are not in a particular player’s hot zone. Thus is the case with Hillenbrand and since he has a decent contact rate, the result was his making too many outs on strikes he should have let go by. Some of Hillenbrand’s hot zone is outside of the strike zone and in Arizona, there is not as much pressure to lay off those hittable pitches and Hillenbrand will do just fine.

How do you see Jeromy Burnitz's trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers affecting his offensive output? Is it a good option to trade Burnitz in favor of Richard Hidalgo?
--Sam Kapa, New York

Normally, when someone is dealt to Los Angeles, the reminder is his numbers will fall as Chavez Ravine is a pitcher’s haven. But Shea Stadium is not exactly Coors Field, so from that aspect, Burnitz should not incur that much of a drop. His RBIs should pick up. The homer pace is likely to stay the course. The bad news is Burnitz is a notoriously streaky hitter and has not really had that extended bad streak yet. And he may not. However, his still excessive strikeout rate accompanied by a decreasing walk rate suggest otherwise. Burnitz will be hard pressed to repeat his first half average of .274. But then, you didn’t expect an average that high up to this point now did you?

Getting Hidalgo for Burnitz would be quite the coup. I was not at all high in Hidalgo coming into 2003, citing a regression in some skills that should still be improving in a player who just turned 28 earlier this month. Lo and behold, Hidalgo is whiffing less and walking more. The result is the expected increase in batting average and power. Don’t look now but Hidalgo is hitting .317 with 14 homers and 50 RBIs and there is no reason to believe he is in for a downturn. He is healthy and the improved patience looks real.

I've been hit by injuries to my pitching staff and I need to pick up at least one starter. Which of these three do you think will have the best second half: Ramon Ortiz, Brandon Webb or Horacio Ramirez?
--Mike Canan, Athens, Ohio

I will opt for the same pitcher who has had the finest first half, Webb. He has the best ratios of the three, but more importantly, supports said ratios with superior walk and strikeout rates. With the return of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, the bullpen headed by another recent returnee, Matt Mantei, should be fresh, further aiding Webb.

Hey Todd, I need your help. I am overloaded with first basemen and outfielders but could use another utility infielder. To balance things out for both managers, should I deal Ryan Klesko and Rocco Baldelli for Geoff Jenkins and Todd Walker? Would the other manager bite? Thanks!
--Mike Rosenthal, Los Angeles

Looks good to me, but I am not the one you need to make bite. It will be a tough sell, but there are avenues to do it. Point out that the recent break should help Klesko’s cranky back. Explain that the rest of the country has finally caught up to San Diego’s balmy climate, further loosening him up.

Klesko aside, the key to the sell is Baldelli. And the key to selling Baldelli, along with heading off the problem of his horrible plate discipline, is pointing out that he has steadily increased his steals each month and should have more than his present 16 in the second half. Emphasize his percentage of success has also improved as half of his six caught stealing were way back in April.

Unfortunately, if I am the other guy, I’m not buying it. I point to the 76 strikeouts versus the 13 walks and irritate you with the old cliché, “You can’t steal first base.”

You then point out that Jenkins has struck out a whopping 95 times, and the only thing preventing him from striking out 95 more is the fact he will probably get injured, after all, he has never played a full season.

I’ll come back with the fact that Jenkins’s numbers are almost exactly the same as Andruw Jones, and there is no way you would offer Klesko and Baldelli for Walker and Jones.

Eventually it will come down to how much the other guy needs Baldelli’s steals.

For the record, while Jenkins has struck out a lot, he is walking a reasonable amount and is likely to stay the course through the remainder of the year. There is no indication he will be slowed by injury.

With the poor performances of some closers, and the trade deadline on the horizon, who are some of the setup men who might find themselves in a closer's role?
--Rich Key, Bowling Green, Ky.

By this time, I assume most of you have heard that the fallout from the Ugueth Urbina and Armando Benitez trades has resulted in the elevation of Francisco Cordero and John Franco to the closer role. Yes, that John Franco. Owners of David Weathers will still likely pick up a few saves down the line.

A situation that bears watching is in Montreal, where there is a push for Julio Manon to usurp the job from Rocky Biddle. My guess is Biddle is still the man, but a man on a very short leash.

As usual, the closing situation in the South Side of Chicago is a mess. White Sox skipper Jerry Manuel has stated that Billy Koch is no longer his closer and he will use the dreaded committee. The head of the committee is Tom Gordon and not Damaso Marte. If the White Sox fall out of contention, Gordon is definitely trade bait, and if they could find someone to take Koch of their hands, Chicago would jump at the opportunity. Something to keep in mind is Manuel’s job is not secure, so this could all change again with a new field manager calling the shots. I sense the guy to get is Marte.

Rod Beck is reportedly one of the nicest guys to don a major league uniform. Unfortunately, Beck’s heater tops out in the mid-80s now. With apologies to Doug Jones, that will not continue to be a recipe for success. Jay Witasick is next in line.

Mike Dejean is no longer the primary option in Brew City. And while Luis Vizcaino should be given the ball, look for Leo Estrella to be the short-term beneficiary of Dejean’s woes. Let’s go back to Vizcaino for a moment. Since June 15, in 13 appearances spanning 11 1/3 innings, he has only allowed three earned runs, all in the same outing. He has given up only 11 hits, walked but three while striking out 11. That’s closer material my friends. A great speculative play is to pick up Vizcaino.

Kazuhiro Sasaki has a couple more weeks before he assumes the stopper role in Seattle, and a couple more after that before he gets hurt again. Presently, Shigetoshi Hasagawa has inherited the saves role, but while a very effective pitcher, is not dominating enough to close for a World Series contender. If the Mariners do not want to hand the ball to Arthur Rhodes, they should go out and bring in a quality closer for the playoff run.

What‘s up with Luis Castillo this year? I drafted him on my teams for a high batting average and a high number of steals. Is he injured? I don't get his low number of steals compared to Juan Pierre who has about triple the amount that Castillo has.
--Eric Park, Garden Grove, Calif.

There are several reasons as to why Pierre is lapping Castillo in the stolen base department. An injury is a possibility, especially since he did not run at all in the spring while allowing his hip to fully recover from offseason surgery. The thing is, there has been no talk of an injury and he seems to be getting down the line as well as ever.

His shifting to the two-hole is a primary reason, as Castillo is now one hitter closer in the order to Mike Lowell, he of the 28 homers, 24 doubles and 76 RBIs. Why take a chance at getting thrown out stealing when Lowell is as likely to drive him in from first base as he is second base?

In addition, the managerial change from Jeff Torborg to Jack McKeon has had an adverse effect on everyone’s running, save for Pierre. Derrek Lee and Juan Encarnacion, along with Castillo, are no longer running until they are thrown out. Remember that Torborg is responsible for turning Andy Fox into a fantasy monster last season.

Finally, don’t look now, but Castillo has six homers! It was just three years ago that Castillo had about six RBIs at the break! Of course he was on his way to a 62 SB season, so his owners did not care as much. The point is, these homers along with the fact he has walked more times than he has whiffed for the first time in his career, leading to a solid batting average, still render Castillo a valuable commodity, even if he is coming up short in the steals category.

After two more great outing in Class AAA Buffalo, when do you think the Indians will bring up Cliff Lee and how well will he do?
--Daniel Frantz, Pinellas Park, Fla.

Lost in the Rich Harden hysteria is the fact, as Daniel points out, that there is another fine pitching prospect on the horizon in the junior circuit. Lee was acquired by the Tribe from Montreal in the Bartolo Colon deal and fared quite well in his first two major league starts. He was shipped back to Buffalo to stay on a regular five-day pattern through some Indians off days and the All-Star break. Expect Lee to be recalled soon. He will suffer the peaks and valleys of any young pitcher, but has a strong future. Realize he is 25, which is older than Harden as well as many of the young pitchers in the senior circuit like Mark Prior, Jacob Peavy, Jesse Foppert, Jerome Williams and Brett Myers, so his ceiling is not as high. Still, Lee is a quality prospect and is worth acquiring in deep AL-only leagues especially those of the keeper variety.

I have both Eric Chavez and Eric Hinske and would like to trade one of them for a starting pitcher. Who would you part with?
--Dan Berinstein, Washington, D.C.

My plan would be to deal Chavez, using his second-half prowess as the hook, as I feel Hinske will actually have the better numbers in the second half. For the record, the season is actually more than half over as most teams have already played about 90 of their 162 games. Saying the second half is just so much easier than saying the final 44 percent. Anyway, Hinske appears to have recovered from his wrist injury and is driving the ball. Even without Shannon Stewart at the top (more on this next time), he plays in the better lineup and the better hitter’s park. There is nothing wrong with keeping Chavez, it is just his name recognition and second-half career trends will lead to a better catch in return. Todd Zola is a writer for The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com, a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion.

 

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