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To dump or not to dump, that is the question

Wait 'til next year: Jose Reyes is highly coveted by fantasy owners looking to build for the future. Al Bello/Getty Images

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Hi, gang. We are going to do things a little differently this time around. For the past several weeks, many of you have sent questions about dump trading. Among the topics covered include assistance in judging the fairness of a dump trade, manners to combat these types of deals, advice on how to pull of such trades and my opinion on the subject in general. A couple of you have not even sent in a question, but simply wanted to vent on the topic with a mini-rant.

Dump trading is a topic I am pretty passionate about, so I thought I would address all these questions in one fell swoop. For all those that have sent in mailbag questions relating to the broad issue of dump trading, please consider this your answer.

Let us begin with an introduction, defining the term dump trading for those unfamiliar. Dump trading is a mechanism specific to keeper leagues. One team sacrifices some of their future in terms of potential keepers to acquire talent that will help them make a run at the championship, while the other team deals away its talented, but not keeper-worthy players for building blocks for the coming years. Players that are not keeper-worthy can be so because they are in the final year of a contract or it would be cost prohibitive to sign them to a long-term contract.

Dump trades are often considered controversial because their equity is not a function of the respective talent being exchanged, but rather by the standard economic principle of supply and demand. In order for a dump trade to make sense, there must be an imbalance of talent when considered in the short term. This difference in production for the balance of the year is made up for by the fact that the following year, the rebuilding team reaps the benefits by receiving production from a player costing less than market value, which is what one desires in a keeper.

While I am very much into the player valuation element of this hobby, I find it an exercise in futility to formulate an equation to quantify and judge a dump trade. I have read countless examples of fellow analysts describing how one should estimate future value and compare it to the keeper salary, then somehow equate that to the level of value that the competing team receives from the superior player. I do not agree that dump trades should be evaluated in this manner.

As alluded to above, the market dictates what is equitable. There is a balance of supply and demand. There is a supply of prime keeper chips and the demand dictated by the number of rebuilding teams. There is the supply of non-keeper talent and the demand generated by the competing teams. Often, this supply-and-demand balance is shifted as teams previously intending to dump may have a change of heart and decide to go for it, while other teams originally intent at making a run may elect to fold their tent after a rash of injuries or the like. Part of the fun with dump trades is recognizing the market and identifying the fluctuations within the market.

Not everyone understands, or even agrees with, my economic basis for judging the equity of this type of swap. These people believe there should be some sort of formula to equate present and future value and have the deal fall within certain boundaries. While I believe if I have what is perceived as the best keeper in the league, I am within my rights to hold the rest of my league mates hostage and extract everything I can for the privilege of acquiring said keeper and building a foundation for future years.

Now that some background and some of my personal philosophy has been established, I will address some of the specific questions that have been sent in. This is as good a time as any to welcome reader feedback on this or any other mailbag issue by inviting you to send me an e-mail to cnnsimailbag@mastersball.com.

Pros and cons

Opponents of dump trades often cite that it is unfair for their league championship to be decided based on the results of one team transferring all their top talent to the same team. The point they are missing is this sole trade cannot be analyzed in a vacuum. The idea being that now the onus is on the other competing teams to acquire top talent in a similar nature, be it from one team or several.

Championships in keeper leagues are not decided by a single trade, but rather via the weavings of several such deals. This is where calibrating the market comes into play. One must know when to lie in the weeds and when to pounce. Do I make the first dump trade or do I let the market establish itself a bit? Do I empty my gun of all its bullets right away or do I keep an ace in the hole for the team that falls out and dumps right at the deadline? One trade does not, or better started, should not decide a keeper league.

Another common complaint offered by those opposed to dump trading is that for some people, the door is opened to go all out and win this year, collecting the monetary kitty that some leagues use in place of the ceremonial Yoo-hoo shower, and then quit. The commissioner is now forced to find a new owner for this team, a difficult task because the team is devoid of any keepers, while several other teams have built themselves a solid foundation.

While I agree that this is a problem, especially in leagues run over the Internet, to me the bigger problem is not allowing teams to rebuild at all in keeper leagues. For those worried about teams winning and leaving, consider this scenario. If there is no mechanism by which lower teams can rebuild, the same handful of teams will compete year after year, which will inevitably lead to turnover. Personally, I find this scenario more distressing and potentially damaging than the occasional instance of a team doing the fantasy baseball equivalent of the “chew and screw.”

Having a team leave the league high and dry is simply the cost of doing business, that is conducting a fantasy league over the Internet. Sooner than later, the scoundrels are weeded out and what is left is a solid group of owners understanding the dynamic of their particular league and willing to play within those confines. Of course organizing a local league comprised of friends who would not play in this manner is ideal, but unfortunately not everyone is afforded this opportunity and must rely on the Internet to sate their drive for competition in a keeper-style league.

In a nutshell, I find the advantages of a keeper league far outweigh the disadvantages. The disadvantages can be overcome as time passes. The advantages, such as reaping the benefits of following the minor leagues, getting to use your cheap sleeper picks for several years and the introduction of the economic byplay described earlier all are supremely beneficial.

How to dump

Now we will spend a little time addressing the question asking the best manner to conduct a dump trade from each side. From the perspective of the rebuilding team, they should be selfish and only have regards for their future. They cannot worry about how their deal affects the dynamic of the competing teams. They should leave it to the other competing teams to make similar deals. Simply put, when you dump, dump everything, don’t worry about where you finish this year and don’t worry about the feelings of the other owners. There are other teams in your boat for them to feast upon. Look out for No. 1.

That being said, the best way to maximize your return is often to spread the wealth and not deal just with a single team. When the situation dictates that I have to throw in the towel in a keeper league and rebuild, my strategy is a two-step process.

First, I identify the finest keeper available, and then I quietly inquire what it would take to acquire their services. I prefer not to let anyone know I am doing this, as I wish to prevent a bidding war. Sometimes this works and I secure what I perceive to be the best keeper. Other times, that other owner smartly announces they are looking for help for this year and are offering this keeper to the league. No matter what happens, I then send out a cattle call announcing to the masses my dumping intentions and invite offers for my non-keeper talent. Then you pick and choose the best offers, attempting to maximize your return. Of course Pandora’s Box has now been opened and everyone is openly dumping or stocking up so here is where your ability to read the market comes into play.

When I am faced with the challenge of going for the title, my plan is similar. I prefer to make the initial move covertly. I pick out the best non-keeper and make a play for him. If I like the price, I pull the trigger and make the deal. Again, the other owner should announce they are dumping and offer their prime non-keeper talent as bait, but sometimes they accept your offer and you get the best available player for less than what it will cost your competitors to get weaker talent as the dumping season plays out.

The chief advice here is to first stalk your prey and see if you can obtain it at less than what market value will work out to be and then use the cattle call approach to round out your roster. This works from either point of view, that of the dumper of contender.

A lot of you have asked about the type of player to target in a dump deal. I favor hitters with solid base skills such as good plate discipline and a decent contact rate. Historically, these hitters are more apt to grow and mature faster and better than hitters with lesser base skills. I also tend to shy away from keeping pitching as the inherent injury risk is greater. Personally, I find it easier to do my homework and come up with pitching bargains in the draft. I believe in playing to one’s strength so I build a keeper list in the areas I am weaker in and rely on my strength during the draft.

Controlling dump trades

I am not naïve so I understand not everyone has the same liberal point of view when it comes to dump trading. Many of you have asked for ways to combat it or at least minimize it. Here are a few suggestions.

In a league that employs a salary structure, use an in-season salary cap so the cumulative total of your active roster does not exceed a certain threshold. This limits the amount of talent a team can take on as these better players usually come equipped with a high price tag.

Some leagues utilize the asterisk rule emanating from the Waggoner rule book. Here, all players in the last year or a contact or those with a salary above a specified amount are denoted as * players. In any deal, the number of * players exchanged from either side must be the same. Of course, the better players are likely of the * variety, so dumping is curtailed.

While the above mechanisms will help solve the problem, for those that consider it a problem, my favorite means of minimizing the effect of dump trading is to consider the economic principle of supply and demand: the greater the supply of keepers, the lesser the demand. The lesser the demand, the less the rebuilding team has to give up to get keepers.

Say the market flushes out to dictate that it takes three studs to get a single keeper. These are the deals that drive people crazy. You need to give up Brian Giles, Sammy Sosa and Matt Morris all to get Jose Reyes on a farm contract. If there are more available keepers, the asking price would go down to two or perhaps even one of those players.

So I favor any means by which to introduce more keepers to the league. In leagues using FAAB, a great way to do this is to set the contracts to the FAAB bid, so the rebuilding teams can troll the waiver wire for cheap acquisitions who might turn out to be keepers next year. Reducing the amount of salary increase given to a keeper yields more keepers, as does increasing the maximum length of a contact to which a player can be signed.

Well friends, there you go. Provided are some of my personal philosophies mixed in with some suggestions. There is one point I have neglected to discuss thus far hence will use it as a way to tie everything together. The bottom line is there are several ways to skin a cat. The key is assembling a group of owners who are all on the same page and in concert with whatever the rules and philosophies are put forth by the league. There is nothing more damaging in this hobby than a league of owners clashing on a rule or philosophy as integral as dump trading. On the other hand, one of the most enjoyable experiences in this hobby can be had playing in a keeper league made up of a solid group of buddies all on the same page, cognizant of the fact that whatever transpires within the league is “business” that there is nothing personal and is left that way.

Before I go, I would like to thank you for allowing me to approach the mailbag in a different manner this week. I appreciate the chance to address a very general question many of you have in this rather unorthodox manner. We will return to the standard format, next week.

Todd Zola is a writer for The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com, a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion.

 

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