Fantasy Mailbag

Oh, what a relief: Solving desperate closer situations

Mike Lincoln picked up three quick saves last week after the Mike Williams' trade. AP

You have questions. Fantasy baseball guru Todd Zola has answers. Click here to submit your fantasy query, then check back every Monday for his latest answers.

Help! I had four closers in my pitching staff for the season. Their names are Armando Benitez, Ugueth Urbina, Billy Koch and Mike Williams. I've lost all of my saves! I wasn't blessed with any real quality to start with in my draft and I don't have much to offer in the way of trades. What can I do? I'm just fighting to hold my position in the league and not fall any further down in the rankings.
-- Paul Li Canberra, Australia

Ouch! To begin with, hold onto Urbina in the hopes that Braden Looper’s recent troubles persist. However, while Looper has given up six earned runs in his last two outings spanning 3 2/3 innings, he has also struck out seven while only walking one, so chances are the past week was merely a rough spell and not the beginning of the changing of the guard.

Barring injury, Williams and Benitez are definitely slated for setup work, although Williams may be given a chance to close if Jose Mesa blows a couple key games in the wild-card race. Koch has slipped to third in line for saves in the South Side of Chicago, behind Tom Gordon and Damaso Marte. As suggested two weeks ago, Marte is an excellent pickup as Gordon is trade bait and Marte has demonstrated the skills to get the job done. Actually, since July 13, both Marte and Gordon have three saves each, so Marte may pad your total even if Flash is not traded.

With the discovery of Brandon Lyon’s frayed elbow, Mike Lincoln’s hold on the closer role in the Steel City appears stronger. Cliff Politte is mended and will be thrust back into ninth-inning duties sooner than later. Keep an eye on Jesus Colome. Former journeyman turned All-Star Lance Carter has done a decent job for Tampa Bay but he is not the answer for the future. Colome may be on the verge of wresting the job, perhaps for good. Shigetosi Hasegawa’s 15 minutes are just about up as the return of Kazuhiro Sasaki is imminent. That said, if you can stash Hasegawa away, do so as Sasaki is by no means guaranteed to remain healthy.

The situation in Brew City is as murky as ever, with former Texas fireballer Danny Kolb challenging Leo Estrella as Mike Dejean’s replacement. Thus far, Kolb has displayed an improved K-rate and is walking significantly less batters, leading to his success. Let’s see him keep it up a while longer before crowning him the next Goose Gossage. It still would not shock me to see Luis Vizcaino be given a shot to live up to the closer-of-the-future label.

Rod Beck is still getting the job done in San Diego, even working four days in a recent five-game stretch, saving three of those games. I still believe the smoke will eventually cloud the mirrors, clearing the way for Jay Witasick to give closing a shot.

Hello, Todd! I really need your help. I've just about had it with Kyle Lohse. The following pitchers are available in my league: Miguel Batista, Kirk Rueter, Runelvys Hernandez and Ben Sheets. I'm in a point scoring league and currently in first place. Should I dump Lohse and pick one of these guys? Which should I pick?
-- Victor Baez, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

The question is not whether to dump Lohse and for whom, but rather what are Batista and Sheets still doing floating around on the waiver wire? What does Batista need to do to get some fantasy respect? No matter the scoring system, since being inserted into the rotation permanently in mid-April, Batista has been one of the top fantasy pitchers in all of baseball. His K-rate is over 6.0 per nine innings and he has walked only 2.43 batter per nine innings pitched, well below his career average. Best of all, he is doing this with a very economical 14.4 pitches per inning, resulting in only 93.4 pitches per start, indicating he could be fresh down the stretch.

In his five July starts encompassing 32 innings, Sheets is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. In this time, he has whiffed 27 and issued only six free passes.

Of the two, Batista is more desirable as he has a better chance of coming up with a win, playing for the better team and with a better bullpen backing him. So run, don’t walk, to the waiver wire and cut Lohse for Batista before someone else beats you to it.

I am in desperate need of a first baseman in my head-to-head league, and I picked up Rich Harden from waivers yesterday. Who would be best to trade him for, Kevin Millar, Richie Sexson or Rafael Palmeiro?
-- Jeff Wetter, Delano, Minn.

While Palmiero’s name may have the cache, Sexson is the best of this trio. Truth be told, there is nothing wrong with looking even high up the food chain as Harden has not disappointed thus far in the embryonic stage of his career. There is something sexy about owning the hot rookie, especially a pitcher. Shoot for the stars, do not stop at Sexson. Ask about Jim Thome, Jeff Bagwell, Jason Giambi and even Todd Helton. You never know.

Sexson is quietly putting up some decent numbers and is on a pace to match his output in 2001 when he finished at .271-45-125. He actually has a good chance to better those numbers, as his strikeout rate is down while his walk rate has significantly improved. Sexson is a good bet to chalk up over 100 bases on balls this year.

Palmiero is a very intriguing case study. Usually, there is something in the numbers behind the numbers that can be pointed toward as an explanation for sudden improvement or decline. Palmiero is not only in a prolonged slump, but his power has been sapped as well. Witness the drop in slugging percentage. For the first time since 1997, he will finish the season below .500. This drop is mainly a result of a horrid July in which he has slugged an uncharacteristic .273. While in recent history, P has hit more homers than doubles, the disparity this season is wider than ever.

Curious is that his groundball to fly ball ratio is not vastly different than years past as he still hits the ball in the air more. He is striking out at about his normal rate but walking just a little less. Again a contradiction in the numbers appears as he is seeing more pitches per at-bat than ever before.

So what does this all mean? While his swing mechanics do not appear to be altered, he is certainly not driving the ball anymore. You do not just lose it like this overnight. He slugged .545 in April and .567 in May.

There are two immediate explanations that come to mind. The first is pretty obvious; he might be hurt. He even complained of back spasms in early June. Texas has been beset with injuries, so perhaps Palmeiro has decided to tough it out instead of taking some time off. He is DHing a little more than in past seasons. Second, Palmeiro is simply going through a horrific spell. His July strikeouts are not that bad, so an injury is likely. So why isn’t he being rested? Perhaps the team is showcasing him in the hopes he gets warm and agrees to waive his no-trade clause.

I am just curious what your thoughts are on Bernie Williams. It should be a no-brainer to keep him, but I already have Juan Gonzalez, Luis Gonzalez, Jose Guillen, Kevin Millar and Aubrey Huff. Do you think he'll return to the Williams of old, being the anchor in the Yankees' lineup, or should I look to trade him?
-- Dan Ruef, Pittsburgh

While year after year Williams has performed at a rather consistent level, within each year he has surprisingly had several hot and cold streaks. Thus far in 2003, he really has not had one of those streaks where he is dialed in and everything he hits is on a line and finds a gap. Of course, the injury has something to do with that. Still, among the players Dan lists, Williams would likely fetch the greatest bang for the buck. Just prepare yourself for the chance that Williams catches fire and has one of those patented months where he hits .400 and knocks in runners left and right. His power is down, but he will still drive in plenty of teammates and should cross the plate himself quite a bit.

I am concerned with C.C. Sabathia. How well do you think he will pitch the rest of the season? His ERA scares me and I need my pitching staff to be consistent. Should I bench him?
-- Jay Wilkins, San Luis Obispo, Calif.

Details, people. Please provide the necessary details to best answer the question. Why is it necessary for your pitching staff to be consistent? If this is rotisserie style scoring, then consistency does not matter. All that matters is how the numbers stack up at the end of the season. If this is head-to-head, then while consistency might be important, it is easy enough to play the matchup game and start Carsten Charles against favorable opponents and bench him versus troublesome teams.

Sabathia’s overall ERA of 3.69 is a bit misleading. It is buoyed by a lights-out May in which he hurled 33 innings and gave up only seven earned runs for an ERA of 1.91. However, his walk and strikeout totals for the month were not significantly different than the months of April, June and July, in which he posted ERAs of 4.07, 4.80 and 4.45. The major difference in the monthly performances was that opposing batters hit only .167 against the southpaw in May while hitting .308, .287 and .226 in the other three months. This leans toward Sabathia enjoying some extreme good fortune in May. One could point toward July and suggest he was unlucky, as his batting average against was very respectable, yet his ERA was fairly high. Giving up four homers this month is the cause for the elevated ERA.

While Sabathia does have a history of stringing together a series of consecutive outstanding starts, the smart play is to expect monthly ERAs in the 4.00 range, which is not bad, just not great. As he continues to mature and remains healthy, Sabathia has the tools to be a front-of-the-rotation anchor, posting double digit wins with an ERA in the mid-3s.

Does Blue Jays manager Carlos Tosca not see the potential that Josh Phelps has? Tosca says that he's benching Phelps in order to play Reed Johnson. So I guess my question is, what is it going to take for Phelps to get some playing time?
-- Justin Gillies, Grover Beach, Calif.

Actually, Justin, it is pretty simple. Keep in mind that Toronto general manager J.P. Riccardi is a Billy Beane disciple. Then call up Phelps' stats and look under the K column. Phelps is a free swinger, and players of that ilk are not long for the style of play championed by Beane, Riccardi and the like. So while Phelps certainly has 30-homer potential, it is the 150-strikeout potential that will keep him down. ' Johnson is no great shakes in the on-base percentage department either, but he is better than Phelps and a better athlete as well.

While on the subject of Riccardi and the Blue Jays, a couple weeks back I teased an analysis of the recent Shannon Stewart-for-Bobby Kielty deal. While the casual baseball fan might assume Minnesota got the better end of the deal, I love what Riccardi is doing.

Don’t get me wrong. Stewart has the potential to be a wonderful player, especially if his recent dearth of steals is due to Tosca’s managerial tendencies and not still sore hamstrings, but Kielty has the goods to be an on-base machine and has developing power. Do not get hung up on the fact Toronto seems to have an abundance of outfield, first base, designated hitter types. Riccardi is simply adding depth, which will enable him to deal away a solid player to get much needed pitching. Who might that player be? Oh, I don’t know. I wonder if they have any young sluggers with 30-homer potential that do not fit their organizational philosophy.

Hey, Todd, what's up with Larry Walker? Just last year he was mashing the ball but now he has only nine homers at the break. Is his shoulder bothering him that much? And will he bounce back and have a great second half? Thanks.
-- Cliff Morgan, Spokane, Wash.

What we are seeing with Walker with respect to his power stroke is not just a poor first half of 2003, but is really a continuation of a what happened in 2002. Last year he clocked 20 homers before the break but only six after. As opposed to the Palmeiro discussed earlier, Walker’s doubles total remained high so the hope was just that it was a statistical anomaly and Walker would bounce back this season.

Thus far in 2003, both his homers and doubles are down, indicating something might be amiss. A close examination of the supporting numbers reveals that Walker is hitting more ground balls than usual. Truth be told, he hits more grounders than most sluggers, but this year it is as extreme as ever. As great a hitter’s park as Coors Field may be, it is very hard to hit a grounder over the fence. Whether the cause is a lingering shoulder injury, another injury or just Father Time creeping up on him, the prospects for Walker finding his power groove are rather slim. He will still be a somewhat productive hitter, but he just will not be the Larry Walker we are so accustomed to seeing.

With half the season still to play do you think Koch will turn his season around?
-- Keith Barker, Toronto, Canada

While I suspect Keith realizes that the season is actually well over half completed as most teams have passed the century mark in terms of games played, it is important to point out there may not be as much time left as you think. Don’t look now, my friends, but the dog days of August are right around the bend.

For Billy Koch, the season may not end soon enough. For the second straight season, the White Sox's Opening Day closer has found himself secured in the managerial doghouse. Last year, Keith Foulke stayed focused and actually turned in numbers better than most closers, without the saves, of course. Koch does not appear to be following in his footsteps and has fallen out of favor. There are reports that his velocity is down, which explain the plethora of home runs he has allowed, nine in only 44 innings. He has walked 21 hitters while allowing a batting average against of .273. It is a wonder his ERA is “only” 5.52. Long term, Koch’s effectiveness likely revolves around the reason for his drop in velocity. He may be suffering from an injury, or he may just be a victim of overuse. He routinely throws more pitches than the average reliever because of the high number of walks and strikeouts he allows.

I am in desperate need of RBIs and some SBs and Phil Nevin has been putting up some good numbers in his return from shoulder surgery, is it worth dropping Milton Bradley to claim him?
-- Gustavo Pacheco, Caracas, Venezuela

If steals are important, then I would stick with Bradley. Actually, even if steals are not important, I might pass on Nevin and continue to employ Bradley. Nevin is bound to hit a few more homers than Bradley but steal fewer bases. RBIs are a toss up as they are a team-dependent stat and neither hitter has that much of an edge in the category. Bradley is no fluke as his plate discipline has improved sharply and easily supports his batting average and production. Keep in mind that Bradley spent a stint on the disabled list in late April, early May, which has lowered his counting stats a tad.

Todd Zola is a writer for The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com, a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion.

 

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