NL Report

Deadline deals alter stretch-run landscape

Robin Ventura has nine homers, but his minimal fantasy value doesn't change much in Los Angeles. AP

By Jason Grey, Special to SI.com

With the trade deadline now come and gone, let’s take a look at some players to look at in terms of changes in fantasy impact down the stretch.

Arizona: The Diamondbacks get Raul Mondesi, which obviously puts Danny Bautista on the bench as a fourth outfielder. Production from Mondesi is not guaranteed however. His moody attitude doesn’t always allow him to perform at his best. A happy Mondesi is a productive Mondesi (see early season Raul). The converse of that is not pretty (see recent Raul). Even the fact he was in a pennant race did not stop him from thinking about himself and getting a ticket out of town. There is no guarantee that Raul is happy in Arizona, though he won’t find his bat out of the lineup, which is the one thing that does keep him placated. Mondesi could have some major numbers, but be aware that there is risk involved.

Atlanta: A couple of recent good starts have not caused the Braves to reconsider replacing Shane Reynolds in the rotation eventually. If John Schuerholz doesn’t get another pitcher (and he hasn’t as of this writing), then Jason Marquis may be an option. The Braves want to see Marquis have some good outings in the pen, but unfortunately he hasn’t. However, he is one of those pitchers who I think is less effective out of the pen, and would do a better job if placed in the rotation. He got his command back on track with some good AAA performances this year. What the Braves will do remains to be seen.

Chicago: There is no reason Eric Karros can’t keep up his hitting, even that he is now entrenched as a starter.

Cincinnati: The Reds got a pretty nice arm (although one that had previously had Tommy John surgery) in Brandon Claussen in the Aaron Boone trade. Claussen is probably ready for full-time major league rotation duty right now. At just 23, he has a very high ceiling if his elbow holds up (there were some minor questions about his surgery recovery before the deal was completed.) He is definitely worth a pickup in NL-only leagues.

Boone will take over for Robin Ventura at third base, and should have an increase in his runs and RBI numbers in the Yankees' lineup. However, a relative unfamiliarity with American League pitchers might cause some issues with his batting average to start.

Aaron Harang, whom they acquired in the Jose Guillen deal, is something of a tease. He shows flashes of dominance from time to time, but has been really lacking in his overall consistency. Harang is a decent gamble in NL-only leagues with a rotation slot, but be prepared for some peaks and valleys. He has the potential to be an above-average starter, but needs to be steadier from start to start.

As far as Guillen goes, he moves out of a great hitter’s park, which might depress his numbers a tad in Oakland. My mastersball.com associate Paul Jones says Guillen will either put up monster numbers or be a monster bust, with no in-between, and I am inclined to agree with that assessment. Guillen is an emotional player in the Raul Mondesi mode, so we shall have to see.

Colorado: Chin-Hui Tsao is a definite pickup in NL-only leagues. Yes, he is a Colorado pitcher. However, the upside is so high it is worth the risk. Tsao is a true power pitcher, and that may be just the type of pitcher who could have consistent success in Coors. If your league counts strikeouts, you should be all over him.

Florida: It is a great story how the Marlins have thrust themselves into the wild card race. One concern is Luis Castillo's steals numbers. Unfortunately, ever since his hip injury he admittedly can’t get his first step back to become a big base stealing threat again. A step slower, not only is he not running as much (compounded by having Pierre bat leadoff), he is getting caught more. Although I originally had expected him to pick it up in the steals department over the balance of the year, the information about his health tempers that expectation not only for this year, but potentially future seasons as well.

Houston: I expect in deep NL leagues that Brad Ausmus, despite currently batting .209, will hit for a good average over the final two months. He’s also expected to sign with San Diego as a free agent in the offseason. Even if Roy Oswalt makes it back in September, he won’t be at 100 percent and his performance could suffer accordingly. Act as if you aren’t expecting anything more out of him if you are in a pennant race.

Los Angeles: The Dodgers got Robin Ventura as a result of the Yankees' trade for Aaron Boone. That puts Adrian Beltre in a tenuous position for the rest of the year. Beltre has shown flashes of coming out of his season-long funk, but it’s not happening quick enough. The fact is, though, that Ventura's bat speed has slowed noticeably this year, and expecting him to get his average up above .250 is a stretch. So while Ventura is a new bat for NL fantasy leagues to look at, he is no longer much of a bat, particularly in a pitcher's park

Milwaukee: Matt Kinney was extremely effective against the Mets on Thursday, this after a public proclamation by his manager that he was lucky to have a rotation job, because they didn’t have anyone to replace him. Glendon Rusch caught a bad break with a DL stint due to a groin injury, as he had been turning it around in his last two starts and appeared to be getting on a roll. The combination of all of this keeps Kinney in the rotation, and perhaps he might take advantage of it over the last couple of months. He has a tendency to lose focus on the mound, and perhaps this verbal kick in the pants will be helpful. I’d watch but not acquire just yet. Though the Brewers brought up Bill Hall, I still expect Royce Clayton to continue to get significant time, and like Ausmus, he might put up a decent average down the stretch (he traditionally has done so.)

Montreal: If you’re looking for a short-term corner option in NL leagues that won’t kill your batting average, you could do a lot worse than Jamey Carroll. Don’t forget about Zach Day. He wasn’t quite ready to return in his first start, but started to get back into form on Thursday. Day will always walk as many as he strikes out, but he manages to make hitters miss enough that he can produce for NL fantasy teams.

New York: Jeff Duncan’s main fantasy asset is stolen bases, and he might be able to get on base enough to take advantage of his speed and give you a few bags down the stretch. Think Scott Podsednik Lite.

Philadelphia: Like I have mentioned here before, don’t expect Pat Burrell to get it turned around this season. The Phillies would love to get a fifth starter to move Brandon Duckworth out, but what they really need to do is just give Duckworth the ball every fifth day instead of making him wait a week and a half to two weeks between starts. He needs to ball consistently to keep his command sharp and keep him effective.

Pittsburgh: Kris Benson may be done for the year. The darkhorse to close for the Pirates next year is Duaner Sanchez. A string of good performances in middle relief may even give him the job late this year. Jeff Suppan goes to the Red Sox, but I love Freddy Sanchez, whom the Pirates got in return. Able to play second, third and short, Sanchez has a major league-ready bat looking for consistent playing time. Bend over backward to acquire him in NL keeper leagues. He should have some value for this year as well.

San Diego: Jake Peavy is wearing down under his workload (8.86 ERA in July). Counting on him for the last two months is risky. Good news for Mark Loretta’s keeper value is that the Padres want to re-sign him. He probably wouldn’t get the at-bats he gets in San Diego elsewhere. Though Adam Eaton’s numbers have not been stellar, I view him as a prime keeper acquisition for 2004.

San Francisco: Sidney Ponson is heading to San Francisco, but the Giants have to give up Kurt Ainsworth. Ponson should continue to do what he has done for the rest of the year. As far as Ainsworth for 2003, he may have a few good September starts once he returns from injury. Obviously, he is much more attractive in keeper leagues.

St. Louis: Fernando Vina is not expected back until late August, but he could give you a decent batting average. Because of the nature of his hamstring injury he won’t be running much on the bases. Dan Haren has been rushed up the ladder to St. Louis, but still may continue to have short-term value. He has had quality starts in three of his last four outings, and may be able to string together a few more. I am not hugely optimistic of him doing so once the scouting reports make the rounds.

Jason Grey is the publisher of The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com, a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion.

 

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