Fantasy Mailbag

Numbers favor Mueller maintaining career season

Bill Mueller is tied for second in the AL with a .330 average. AP

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Bill Mueller is available in my league. Should I consider starting him over Alfonso Soriano, Scott Rolen or Moises Alou?
-- David Newman, Longwood, Fla.

Wow. Here is a question I never thought I would have to answer, unless we were running an April Fool’s mailbag. But this is an extremely legitimate question and deserves a thoughtful response. Keep in mind Mueller is eligible at second base, third base and utility.

Entering this season, Mueller was slated to be a utility infielder for the Boston Red Sox, spelling Todd Walker at second and Shea Hillenbrand at third. Early in the campaign, Mueller earned a bit more playing time whenever Derek Lowe was on the mound, as the sinkerballer benefited by having Mueller play third with Hillenbrand sliding over to first. Mueller took full advantage of these opportunities and hit very well when he was in the lineup. He began to play a little more and it became apparent that he was capable of holding down the fort at the hot corner, rendering Hillenbrand expendable. Boston would eventually deal Hillenbrand for much needed pitching help in Byung-Hyun Kim.

The move has paid off. Mueller has had a career year, setting a personal high in homers and is on the verge of doing the same in RBIs, not to mention hanging out in the top 10 in batting average. Buoyed by 34 doubles, Mueller is slugging .576.

The question is will he keep it up? And if he does, will any of the above troika match his performance?

To help analyze the former, let us look at the Red Sox schedule and examine Mueller’s home and road splits. Boston has 30 more games at friendly Fenway Park and 22 on the road. Mueller is absolutely raking at home, to the tune of a .372 batting average. The irony is he has nine of his 13 home runs on the road. Hitting three in one night, including becoming the first player in history to hit grand slams from both sides of the plate last week in Texas, certainly helps that mark. Even with that record-breaking evening, he has more RBIs at home. The end result is that considering Mueller plays almost 60 percent of his remaining games at home, he is a pretty good bet to sustain a high level of performance.

Soriano is demonstrating why not all of us were ready to give up our principles of using plate discipline and contact rate as a means of projecting future performance. Overall, the numbers are still quite respectable as he has hit 24 homers and stolen 27 bases while hitting .278. But since hitting .378 in April, he has hit .246 since, including only .180 since Hank Blalock gave the American League home field advantage in the World Series. It is anyone’s guess if Soriano will stay mired in this tailspin, as his walks have predictably gone down while his strikeouts have increased. On the other hand, Soriano’s supreme combination of strength and speed has led to months that defy standard sabermetric analysis.

Rolen is very quietly putting up another quality season. Cast in the shadows of Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds, he has steadily hit .290 with 22 homers and 75 RBIs. He has even swiped nine bags along the way. When discussing Rolen, his health must always be considered as he has a history of having a balky back, and has played through other assorted ailments such as shoulder and neck woes through the course of this season. The fact he is white hot since the break, hitting .358 with four homers, 13 RBIs and three steals is decent evidence he is feeling pretty good.

Do not look now, but Alou has missed only five of the Chicago Cubs' 110 games. To be fair, the injury-prone label toted by Alou might be a little exaggerated, as he has managed to average 131 games the past three seasons. To this point in the season, his production nearly matches that of Mueller, as he has smacked 16 long ones while driving in 70.

What was the question again? Oh yeah, should David pick up Mueller in place of one of these three? My first option would be moving one, likely Soriano as there is probably someone in the league sure he is going to snap out of his funk. The problem is Soriano has the highest ceiling of the group and if David needs all the help he can get, then perhaps keeping Soriano and crossing all his fingers and toes is the call.

I would keep Rolen over Mueller as he has a history of producing at his current level, while Mueller is playing over his head. Replacing Alou is an interesting idea as their production is very similar and Alou’s injury history balances out the fact Mueller might regress back to his career norm. Additionally, when placed at utility, Mueller affords David some flexibility in case Soriano or Rolen get hurt or if David deals one.

So to sum up, I would try to deal Soriano for an upgrade at a weak position. If that is not feasible, I would drop (or trade) Alou to clear a spot for Mueller.

I am wondering what is wrong with Freddy Garcia? He's on a winning team, but he has a mammoth ERA and just got rocked again. My question is do you see a turnaround to the old Freddy? And what has caused this struggle, is it a slower fastball? I'm in a head-to-head, 5x5 league and playoffs start soon. I am seriously trying to dump Garcia. Is this smart?
-- William, Burlingame, Calif.

Well, William, not only does he play on a winning team, he hurls in a pitcher’s park supported by a stellar defense, which includes a trio of Gold Glove-caliber outfielders. Confusing matters is Garcia turned in an awesome June that saw him go 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 44 innings. It is well documented that there is quite a bit of mileage on Garcia’s still relatively young right arm. Including this season, the 27-year old pitcher has amassed 925 innings since 1999. He would be over 1,000 if it were not for an arm injury in 2000.

Predictably, Garcia’s homers and walks allowed are up and his strikeouts are down. Unpredictably, reports have his velocity being just fine, but that his location is way off. He is leaving everything up in the zone, and when you do that, batters hit balls that even Mike Cameron cannot track down. There are concerns that Garcia is tipping his pitches and that his mechanics are out of whack. There is also the chance he is sent to the bullpen in favor of Rafael Soriano. If he does remain in the rotation, he is slated to face two of the league's top offenses, Toronto and Boston, in his next three starts.

So, yes, William, it is smart to be seriously trying to dump Garcia.

I have Byung-Hyun Kim, Scott Williamson and Jason Isringhausen as closers. With Williamson going to Boston, who would you keep, Kim or Williamson? Also, if I were to cut one of the two, would free agents like Francisco Cordero, Braden Looper, Mike Lincoln, Rod Beck or Chris Mears be worth picking up? Thanks.
-- Keith, Altoona, Pa.

In case you haven’t noticed, it is Madonna Day here at the mailbag as so far we have only answered questions from people with no last names. Anyway, Boston has gone on record as saying, at least initially, that Kim will retain his role as closer and that Williamson will set him up. So of the two, Kim is more desirable. If this is a keeper league, realize that Kim is probably going to enter the rotation next season, and Williamson will be handed the closer job. However, do not be shocked if Williamson picks up a handful of saves the remainder of this season, as the Red Sox will not hesitate to extend Kim more than one inning if the situation dictates. Thus, Williamson slides to closer on days Kim cannot work.

If a handful of saves and the chance to close next year are not enough to make Keith want to hold Williamson, the best option from the list is Cordero. As predicted here last week, Looper has at least temporarily fended off the charge of Ugueth Urbina and remains Florida’s closer but this hold must be considered tenuous at best. Lincoln’s main perceived competition, Brandon Lyon, was shipped back to Boston in a bizarre yet sensible move, but the Pirates just called up Mark Corey who was leading the Pacific Coast League in saves with 30. He continues to get the job done, and one day I will be forced to give him his props, but I still consider Beck to be a volatile option. Finally, while Mears is doing the job, the long-term answer in Detroit is still Franklyn German. Of the group, Cordero’s grasp on the position is the firmest as he only has the recovering Jeff Zimmerman to be concerned with, and it does not look as though he will pose a threat, at least this year.

Before I move on to the next question, it should be noted that quality of team these guys play for, although relevant, is not as important as their stability with the job. In an isolated 50-game stretch, the worst team may very well have almost, if not the same amount of save opportunities as the best team.

I'm in a keeper head-to-head league, and we can keep only two players. Even though we are getting close to the playoffs and I should be contending, I'm already thinking about next year. I have it down to three, but I must decide which two of the following three players to keep for next season: Miguel Tejada, Hideki Matsui or Jason Giambi. I am leaning toward Matsui and Tejada, as Matsui has better numbers than Tejada, and Tejada is just too much quality to let go at shortstop. Giambi should be the easiest to replace. Your thoughts?
-- Jason Puma, Indianapolis, Ind.

Short and sweet, you keep your two best players, regardless of position. It is that simple. The whole position scarcity argument is largely a myth. Given the option of Giambi, Matsui and Tejada, Giambi is the no-brainer keeper of the bunch. At this point, I am torn between Tejada and Matsui. A lot depends upon where Tejada plays his home games in 2004. As much as I fashion myself a numbers guy, sometimes you need to rely on gut instinct and my gut tells me with a year of American culture under his belt, Matsui shows us a bit more of the reason he is nicknamed Godzilla.

I'm in a league with a maximum of 15 free-agent moves for the season, and I have just one left. I think I need one more starter (having just used several of them as trading chips), and the three best on the market are Rich Harden, Brandon Webb and Mark Redman. My lineup is solid, but if anyone goes down for the season, I'm in trouble. Should I hold on to my final move in case of position player injury (the only backup I have worth playing is Corey Koskie, and he's injured), or should I grab a pitcher and hope no major injuries occur? If so, which one of the three do I go for?
-- Jack Smith, St. Louis

Jack, ask yourself the following question: “Can I win without picking up one more starter?” If the answer is yes, then hold onto your move as insurance. If the answer is no, then throw caution to the wind and pick up, um, pick up, well, let’s see. Harden is the sexy rookie taking the league by storm. Webb is the steady rookie that people may forget is still a rookie, and Redman is the grizzled vet finally showing some of his latent promise. Webb should be solid and basically stay the course. If that is enough to get the job done, then consider taking him. On the other hand, this is your last move. You are already taking a chance by employing it, what the heck, go for the touchdown and take Harden.

Why don't more leagues include holds? Most of the leagues I play in do include that category and it seems to make much more sense than the traditional five categories. There's no concern over whether pitchers having poor seasons like Billy Koch and Cliff Politte will lose or regain their closer jobs. It also has the effect of adding value for talented pitchers like Brendan Donnelly who can help in multiple categories. I suggest balancing things by adding OPS for batters.
-- Craig Lammers, Bowling Green, Ohio

Personally, while I have no issues with non-standard categories, I am not in favor of adding holds. I was posed this question last offseason so I did a little research on the subject. While admittedly I need to do a more extensive analysis, my preliminary findings are that holds are even less predictable than the standard rotisserie categories. It is not that the present categories are extremely predictable, especially wins, but they are more predictable than holds. As such, an unnecessary element of luck is added to the game. Again, it is not that there is no luck already involved; it is just that I see no reason to bring more in.

I prefer to attempt to project the performance of each player and then convert those estimated statistics into a dollar value or ranking to guide my bidding or drafting. My initial findings reveal that predicting holds is not much more than a crapshoot, thus valuing pitchers with holds is not much more than a crapshoot. At least we have the Bill James Pythagorean Theorem to help guide us with projecting wins. Even this is not ideal, but it is better than nothing

To address a couple of Craig’s specific points: To many people, dealing with the plight of players like Koch and Politte are what makes this hobby fun. You need to be aware of the closers in waiting, the managerial tendencies, etc. I liken this to an argument I have yearly in a fantasy football league. Some people prefer to have the active lineup contain two quarterbacks, as there is usually no choice of who to play. Bah, I say. Play only one QB and spend half the week losing sleep over which one.

With regards to pitchers like Brendan Donnelly receiving their due respects in terms of value, they already do. The following numbers are derived from a deep AL- or NL-only league. Typically, the pool of pitchers with positive value is composed of 50 percent starters, 36 percent middle relievers and 14 percent closers. Let’s translate that into an 11-man staff. That would be 5.5 starters, 4 middle relievers and 1.5 closers. An argument can be made that a standard major league staff has this makeup. You have your main five starters and a swingman along with a closer and his backup. This is pretty well represented by 5.5 starters and 1.5 closers. Ergo, it can be said the pool of positively valued pitchers very well reflects, in terms of numbers, the makeup of a regular pitching staff. Furthermore, this result is more than simply because in a deep league, almost all of the available pitchers have to be drafted. There are two ways to approach this. First, only about 67 percent of the active pitchers at any time earn value in a deep league. Second, only about 33 percent of all the pitchers active over the course of the year earn positive value.

But the number of pitchers alone does not tell the whole story. If the value associated with these pitchers were proportional to their numbers, then starters would encompass 50 percent of the overall value, middle relievers would chalk up 36 percent, leaving 14 percnet for closers. In actuality, the breakdown is more often the following: about 58 percent of the overall value goes to starters, 14 percent to middle relievers and 28 percent to closers. I am comfortable with this breakdown. I believe starters and closers deserve a disproportionate piece of the pie. With a few notable exceptions, middle relievers fill the role they do because they are not good enough to start or close. In my not-so-humble opinion, this is fairly reflected in their values as presently dictated by the standard rotisserie categories. Adding values for holds would increase the fraction earned by middle relievers in a way that renders them more important than they really are.

Who do you prefer at shortstop for the remainder of the season: Florida's Alex Gonzalez or Kansas City’s Angel Berroa? Thanks.
-- Albie Yuravich, Naugatuck, Conn.

After all that, I decided to end on a fairly easy one. Berroa is finally realizing his potential. Gonzalez is reminding us why in March, when Alex Gonzalez is drafted, we refer to the Cubs' version as the decent one and the Marlins' version as the other one.

Todd Zola is a writer for The Masters of Fantasy Baseball at www.mastersball.com, a free daily source for news, analysis, insight, and opinion.

 

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