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Fantasy File
Now or next year: Potential keepers can complicate trading strategy
Posted: Wednesday August 06, 2003 3:45 PM
Rich Harden has won three of his first four big-league starts. |
By James Quintong, SI.com
Much like owners in "real" baseball, fantasy owners try to figure out if they're playing for this year or building for the future and make their late-season moves accordingly.
My colleague Todd Zola has already addressed the issue of dump trades –- deals where high-priced, usually big-name talent are exchanged for cheaper, more often younger and less-proven players. And in fact, you've seen it in the majors during the trade deadline, demonstrated amazingly well by the Cincinnati Reds.
It's usually very easy to figure out what types of players rebuilding teams want to deal. Superstars who have fat contracts and can put up big numbers will draw plenty in the trade market. If you're not winning with Barry Bonds or Jason Giambi on your roster, you've probably got a lot of unproductive supporting players you need to replace. Or you could've had bad luck with injuries to guys like Vladimir Guerrero or Randy Johnson and their return to action is too late for you to make a run.
The targets for rebuilding owners are pretty easy. Top prospects and/or minor leaguers are the obvious choice because they carry low price tags but the potential for greater things. Productive but cheaply acquired veterans are also intriguing because they can help build a solid foundation for at least next year, although there are usually reasons for such a low value at the start of the year.
However, there's still a major gray area among the cheaper players that could alter trading strategy. First off, there are the stud prospects who are performing now. Rich Harden has pitched even beyond his lofty expectations to start his career. After a brief stint on the DL, Mark Prior looks to be flashing his All-Star form again. Plus, NL Rookie of the Year contenders Brandon Webb and Dontrelle Willis just keep motoring along. Do you play the hot hand with these players, or do you sell very high now to get a superstar?
Playing a major role with these pitchers is that all of them are involved in the playoff race. They're not going to be shut down as long as the team is in contention, but there's always a fear that they could tire down the stretch, just when it counts.
It's not just rookie pitchers you have to consider, although they are a lot more high-risk, high-reward heading into the final months. Promising hitters like Angel Berroa, Rocco Baldelli and Morgan Ensberg have produced nice stats this year, but is it worth dealing them for a Bonds or Sosa, or can you play for both now and next year?
An even stickier situation involves productive low-priced veterans who might not live up to expectations (or even be in the league) next year. Jose Guillen is a prime example of this. Owners in NL leagues may have had problems trying to sell Guillen as a potential keeper. While he was producing big numbers and likely at a cheap price, his future in Cincinnati both this year and in the future was up in the air since he's a free agent after the season and likely would have no defined starting role in the crowded Reds outfield. It's all moot now since he was traded to Oakland, where he commanded big FAAB money in AL leagues.
Another impending free agent in a similar dilemma is Mark Redman of the Marlins. He's been sparkling this season, and despite his reputation as a soft-tossing lefty, he's had his share of double-digit strikeout games. Contenders want him because of his stats, but owners in keeper leagues may have him at a cheap price given his less than lofty status at the start of the year. However, will he stay with Florida (or in the NL) after this season? Is this year the start of something good, or is this a fluke? Will he even keep up this pace given his workload?
You can ask the same of this year's surprise pitchers, such as All-Stars Shawn Chacon or Esteban Loaiza. This year's numbers have been outstanding, and both were probably picked off the waiver wire or as endgame material at the draft. But can you expect the same sort of production next year? Having Chacon or Loaiza for 2004 at $2 or $3 is enticing, but not if they go 6-12 with a 5.10 ERA.
The always fluid closer situation also makes for some interesting decisions regarding playing for now and building for the future. As seen with Scott Williamson, Armando Benitez and Ugueth Urbina, you can be one trade away from seeing your fantasy value plummet as a setup man. Some of this year's surprise closers, like Tim Worrell and Rod Beck, will most likely give way to Robb Nen and Trevor Hoffman, respectively, once those guys return from injury. On the other hand, Francisco Cordero could benefit either contenders or rebuilders now that he's got the Rangers' closing job again.
Putting the pieces together on the right deal takes a lot of work, and a lot of the advice can be altered a bit based on the numbers of your league. But any good fantasy owner or general manager knows how to master the economics of the game to create contenders for both today and next year.
James Quintong is Fantasy Sports Producer at SI.com.
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